On Thursday, LeSean McCoy of the Eagles signed a five-year, up to $45 million extension with about $20 million guaranteed. Matt Forte played his fourth season to finish out his rookie deal and now sits with a franchise tag of $7.742 million, and the prospects of a contract getting done seeming more distant.
The McCoy deal, according to Rotoworld, is as follows:
5/17/2012: Signed a six-year, $45.615 million contract. The deal contains $20.765 million guaranteed, including McCoy's base salaries in years one through three. 2012: $615,000, 2013: $3.25 million, 2014: $8 million, 2015: $10.25 million, 2016: $7.15 million, 2017: $7.85 million, 2018: Free Agent
So what does this mean for Forte? Let's take a look and compare the two players and their situations.
Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | Rush Y/A | Rush/Game | Rec | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | Rec Y/A | Rec/Game |
Matt Forte | 1,014 | 4,233 | 21 | 4.2 | 16.9 | 223 | 1,985 | 8 | 8.9 | 3.7 |
LeSean McCoy | 635 | 3,026 | 28 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 166 | 1,215 | 5 | 7.3 | 3.6 |
The two players at first glance are extremely similar - both are very solid, dual-threat running backs, who can rush the ball as well as make plays receiving out of the backfield. Both get about the same receptions per game with Forte having more reception touchdowns and a slightly higher yards per reception, and Forte gets a few more carries on the ground.
But these numbers compare Forte's total four-year career to McCoy's total three-year career. So let's strip this down, comparing Forte's first three years to McCoy's, and then Forte's last three years to compare the current players.
Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | Rush Y/A | Rush/Game | Rec | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | Rec Y/A | Rec/Game |
Matt Forte (08-10) | 811 | 3,236 | 18 | 3.99 | 16.9 | 171 | 1,495 | 7 | 8.74 | 3.56 |
Matt Forte (09-11) | 698 | 2,995 | 13 | 4.29 | 15.9 | 160 | 1,508 | 4 | 9.425 | 3.64 |
LeSean McCoy | 635 | 3,026 | 28 | 4.8 | 13.8 | 166 | 1,215 | 5 | 7.3 | 3.6 |
Over the three-year splits, McCoy is the more effective runner, whereas Forte is the more effective receiver. McCoy's rushing yardage per attempt is almost a full yard above Forte's first three years and a full half-yard over Forte's last three. On the other hand, Forte's receiving YPA is almost a yard and a half over McCoy's for the first three years of his career, and over two full yards above McCoy's over the last three years, with the two players getting about the same receptions. McCoy gets a few less rushes than Forte gets, yet has more touchdowns, by a fairly significant margin. You could say McCoy's last year is an outlier with 17 rushing touchdowns. But even with that taken out, McCoy's 11 touchdowns (over his first two seasons) is still right in line with any two connected years of Forte's career.
Player | Rush Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush TDs | Rush Y/A | Rush/Game | Rec | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | Rec Y/A | Rec/Game |
Matt Forte (08-09) | 574 | 2,167 | 12 | 3.77 | 17.94 | 120 | 948 | 4 | 7.9 | 2.5 |
Matt Forte (09-10) | 495 | 1,998 | 10 | 4.04 | 15.47 | 108 | 1,018 | 3 | 9.425 | 3.375 |
Matt Forte (10-11) | 440 | 2,066 | 9 | 4.70 | 15.71 | 103 | 1,037 | 4 | 10.07 | 3.68 |
LeSean McCoy (09-10) | 362 | 1,717 | 11 | 4.74 | 11.68 | 118 | 900 | 2 | 7.63 | 3.81 |
Is McCoy as big a part of the offense as Forte is? Last year his 1,624 combined yards from scrimmage were only 24.8% of his team's offense, and 27.1% of offense of games he played in. By contrast, Forte's yardage in games he played in accounted for 38.03% of the team's total yardage.
So while Forte picks up a larger percentage of the team's yardage when he plays as well as better receiving stats, McCoy picks up almost the same yardage, adds a few more touchdowns on the ground, and does so more efficiently. Forte's extra carries weigh down his numbers fairly significantly - while Forte's share of the offense is greater than McCoy's, the extra use and reliance has to reverse that negotiating effect.
And I'd like to close off my portion of the piece by discussing the players' individual leverages in their negotiations. McCoy just came off an All-Pro year in which he scored 20 total touchdowns and steadily increased his production each year as he received more and more carries. Forte's stayed more consistent and has improved his per carry numbers, including making the Pro Bowl last year, but he's already gone over 1000 carries on his career, and hasn't quite shown the same nose for the end zone as in his first season.
So, we'll end on that with a few thoughts...
First off, do you think Forte is worth the same total extension amount as McCoy received? If not, did McCoy's contract torpedo any chances of the Bears and Forte reaching an agreement? How much does Forte's extra use hurt his chances of reaching a similar deal?