FanPost

State of the Bears week 3

This is my first foray into posting here on WCG, so be gentile :)
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Most Bears fans are going to come away from this win not feeling as if this game had any meaning to what this team is made of. Is it a top contender for the playoffs? Probably. Is it a contender for the super bowl? We won’t know until we face more tests and play tougher teams. What we do know is that our special teams and defense are super bowl caliber and they alone could carry us to the playoffs. The offense has the necessary pieces in place to get better and improve and a coach in Tice who is learning and seems to be able to adjust from game to game. So the question of being a super bowl contender will develop as the season goes on. So I have decided to focus the remainder of these writings on a stat site that I have discovered which is similar to saber metrics in baseball.

The website is called footballoutsiders.com and it has a new metric for measuring teams in a more balanced way similar to “win above replacement” in baseball. This new measurement is called “defense-adjusted value over average”. It is meant to take into account strength of schedule and each individual play based on the situation, it is a bit more complicated than how I described it but that is the general idea of what the new metric does. As of right now the Bears are 5th in total efficiency: 3rd in defense, 2nd in special teams, and 27th in offense, which was a jump from the 14th spot the week before. So as a metric of total team efficiency this last Bear game was actually a great overall team effort, even though the offense had little to do with it.

So to breakdown the individual offensive positions we look at each positions DVOA. At the quarterback position Jay Cutler is ranked 31st, which is obviously going to be skewed after only three weeks and two sub par performances. But it is important to note that last years MVP (Rodgers) is ranked 24th, so even some great QB’s are having horrible starts to the season. It is important for Jay to stop throwing picks, settle down and concentrate on completions and not getting 20-30 yards on each pass play, mostly due to long 3rd down conversions. It also shows that poor offensive lines make any qb look bad, as we have seen with Rodgers in the first three games.

When it comes to the wide receivers we are pretty dismal. The first wide receiver listed is Earl Bennett and he is ranked at 52, with a negative 19% DVOA, Marshall is 60th, Jeffery is 38th, but he doesn’t have enough targets to crack the qualifying 15. So right now our rookie is our most effective receiver on the team. This is quite shocking and surprising to me since Bennet and Marshall have a long history with each other and should be doing better than what they are. I am beginning to think that Jay’s comfort with them may be hurting his ability to pick the guy that is the most open, not the guy who he trusts the most.

With the running backs it is obvious they are the most productive of the bunch on the field and on the stats sheet. Bush is ranked 14th and Forte 19th, so they are both great options to lean on while the passing game figures things out. With the Bears ability to run, inability to pass, and a dominant special teams and defense, they could and should rely on a ball control type game until the offense comes around. This will keep their efficiency high and result in wins.


I have left out the tight ends because of a lack of targets, and the offensive line because the stats have not been updated as of yet. As for the defense, there isn't much to improve on as of yet, so if there is a bad performance in the future by them I will dissect it like I did for the offense.



<em>This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.</em>

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