Chicago Bears offensive skill positions: Projected stats for 2013 (pt.2)

Rob Grabowski-USA TODAY Sports

How are the Chicago Bears' offensive skill position players doing? We revisit their projected stats for 2013 and see how they look compared to the figures coming out of the bye week.

We previously looked at how the team's offensive skill position players' stats projected for the season during the bye week, after 7 games. We're now 12 games in so it seems like a good point at which to recalculate and see how things are going.

To arrive at these numbers I simply divided each stat from NFL.com by 12 and multiplied the result by 16 [not entirely true: it was easier to divide by 0.75], rounding up. As before, for reference I also included their 2012 stats and pre-2013 career averages (see the original post for judgement calls) by way of comparison, as well as the projected stats from the bye week, after 7 games.

QB: Jay Cutler

The rows of interest are "Projected (raw)" and "Projected (no injuries)" - the former is scaled up with no regard for missed games (injuries happen), and the latter is what his stats would project to calculated on his having played, essentially, 7 games (was out for the end of Detroit, only played the start of Washington, missed GB).


Att
Comp Pct Yds Avg Yds/G (/16G)
TD (%) Int (%) Sck Lng
QB rating Rush att Yds Avg TD Fum
Current 265 167 63.0 1,908 7.2 238.5 13 (4.9) 8 (3.0)
11 58 88.4 18 92 5.7
0 4
Projected
(raw)
353
223
63.2
2,544 7.2
159.0 17 (4.8) 11 (3.1) 15

87.8 24
123
5.1

5
Projected
(no injuries)
606
382
63.0 4,361
7.2
272.6
30 (5.0)
18 (3.0) 25

88.7 41
210
5.1

9
Projected
(raw, bye week)
514
334
65.0
3,790 7.4
236.9 27 (5.3) 16 (3.1) 23

91.5
41
210
5.1

9
Projected
(games 1-6)
579
381
65.8
4,347
7.5
271.7
32 (5.5)
16 (2.8) 24

95.1
48
245
5.1

11
2012 434 255 58.0 3,033 7.0 202.2 (189.6) 13 (4.1) 14 (3.2) 38 60T 81.3 41 233 5.7 1
Career avg 469.2
285.8
60.9
3,385.8
7.2
230.9 (211.6)
21.2 (4.5)
15.8 (3.4)
31
93T 83.8
41.7
183
4.4
1
3.3
Broncos avg 541.5
340.5
62.9
4,011.5
7.4
250.7
22.5 (4.2)
16 (3.0)
19
93T
86.9
50.5
202.5
4.0
1.5
5.5
Bears avg 433.75
258.5
59.6
3,073
7.1
219.5 (192.1)
20.5 (4.7)
15.75 (3.6)
37
89T 81.9
37.3
173.25 4.7
0.75
2.25

Cutler's stats have dipped a little following the bye week, although that consists of a good first half and an increasingly hobbled all-but-the-last-drive of the second half in the rematch against the Lions. While showing signs of regressing to the mean, he's still above both his career and Bears-only averages in most of the major passing stats, with only yardage being significantly impacted by injury.

We'll all be interested to see if he can pick it up again upon his return; if some of the beat writers are correct, Emery and Trestman have already decided that they've seen enough to want to keep him in Chicago... at least, for next season.

RB: Matt Forte

Rush att Yds Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Fum Lost
Current 214 971 4.5 55 7 58 445 7.7 33 1 2 2
Projected
285 1,295 4.5 9 77 593 7.7 1 3 3
Projected (bye week)
265 1,218 4.6 14 80 599 7.5 0 2 2
2012 248 1,094 4.4 46 5 44 340 7.7 47 1 2 1
Career avg 252.4 1,065.4 4.2 68T 5.2 53.4 465 8.7 89T 1.8 2.8 2

Forte's production on the ground has accelerated since the bye week, to the extent that - on current pace - he's set to overtake his previous career high of 1,238 yards as a rookie; he's not finding the endzone quite as regularly as in the first seven games, though. His projected touches increase from 345 to 362.

RB: Michael Bush

Rush att Yds Avg Lng TD Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Fum Lost
Current 43 84 2.0 15 2 3 31 10.3 15
Projected 57 112 2.0 3 4 41 10.3
Projected (bye week) 55 101 1.8 2 2 14 7.0
2012 114 411 3.6 20 5 9 83 9.2 18 1 1
Career avg 158 660.5 4.2 67T 5.25 22.8 219.8 9.7 55 0.25 1 1

I thought Bush might get more playing time, with the Bears leaning more on the ground game when McCown was in for Cutler. Things haven't entirely worked out that way, and his biggest contribution to all things Bears seems to be as an exclusive inside reporter for CSN Chicago's postgame shows. If the Bears get knocked out of playoff contention, will we see more Bush (giggity) in an attempt to preserve Forte from overuse?

WR: Brandon Marshall

Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Rush att Yds Avg Lng TD Fum Lost
Current 78 990 12.7 44 9
Projected 104 1,320 12.7 12
Projected (bye week) 105 1,234 11.8 11
2012 118 1,508 12.8 56 11 1 -2 -2.0 -2 2
Career avg 99 1,241 12.6 75T 7.2 3 17.7 5.9 2.0 0 2 1

Marshall's been more productive through the air since the bye week and is on course to have his third-highest receiving yardage season of his career (only 5 fewer than his breakout season in 2007), as well as lead the team in receptions and TDs but, arguably, he's been overshadowed by the breakout year of his young protégé...

WR: Alshon Jeffery


Rec
Yds
Avg
Lng
TD
Rush att
Yds
Avg
Lng TD Fum Lost
Current
70
1,109
15.8
80T
5
14
115
8.2
38
0
2
0
Projected
93
1,479 15.9

7
19 153 8.1


3

Projected (bye week)
75
1,282 17.1

5
14 201 14.4


2

2012
24
367
15.3
55
3





1

At the bye week I thought the main point of interest for revisiting offensive skill player season projections, aside from looking at Cutler's stats, would be to see where Jeffery would be at in his quest to hit 1,000 yards receiving, if he was holding up to the rigours of a full season, and whether teams were finally accounting for the Jeffery end-around. Already there, he's getting stronger as it progresses, and looks like.

This is the scenario Bears fans dreamt about last season: if only we had someone who could catch the ball when Marshall's drawing double teams. It's worth pointing out, though, that the Bears are 0-5 when Jeffery's caught 100+ yards.....

WR: Earl Bennett

Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Rush att Yds Avg Lng TD Fum Lost
Current 24 190 7.9 17T 2
Projected 32 253 7.9 3
Projected (bye week) 25 238 9.5 5
2012 29 375 12.9 60T 2
Career avg 38 508.5 13.3 71 2 0.5 4.5 5 1 0.25

Not much to say; Earl's been seeing a few more targets since the bye week - and answered the bell with an eight-catch game against the Ravens in atrocious conditions - but he's still fifth on the receiving options list.

TE: Martellus Bennett

Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Rush att Yds Avg Lng TD Fum Lost
Current 48 545 11.4 43 5
Projected 65 727 11.2 7
Projected (bye week) 73 814 11.1 9
2012 (NYG)
55 626 11.4 33T 5
Davis, Spaeth 2012 25 257 10.3 25 3 1 1
Career avg 28 294.4 10.5 37 1.8 0.2 0

Martellus Bennett's receiving numbers have declined in recent weeks, partly due to being asked to stay in to block more. He would still be on course to overtake his career-best season from last year. I'm not missing Kellen Davis.

What jumps out at you from these figures?

(Article pic in hi-res.)

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