I’ve always wondered how accurate the "expert" mock drafters have been in their predictions. I’ll be the first to admit that predicting the draft is not any easy task. You have to have in depth knowledge of the prospects; knowledge of a given team’s needs and be able to make a judgment on the priority of the given needs. Plus a little luck doesn’t hurt. Then comes draft time, trades are made which screws everything up.
This year I decided to download the data of 18 various experts, 16 professional prognosticators and 2 amateurs. The data represents their picks for the 1st round. I tallied how many picks an expert had for a given pick that was 100% dead on. Example: Mike Mayock picked Eric Fisher, OT from Central Michigan to be selected by Kansas City with the 1st pick of the draft. Mayock was given 3 points for the correct prediction.
Next I counted how many of the experts’ 32 picks turned out to be 1st round picks. In the case of Mayock, he had 27 of his picks that were actually picked in the 1st round. For every one of these Mayock was given 1 point.
Sometimes an expert would make a pick and get the position drafted correct but not have the correct player. For example: Boydvv54 picked Sharrif Floyd, DT Florida, in the 14th round for Carolina. Carolina actually drafted DT Star Lotulelei. Since Boydvv54 recognized that Carolina needed a DT he was awarded 1 point for picking the correct position. This versus 3 points being awarded for selecting the correct person, team and position.
There were 9 position trades in the first round this year, which is about normal. This of course makes it very difficult to get a pick correct. There were 5 experts who had the Player and position correct for that draft number but due to the trade the team was incorrect. For example: suckmyditka picked Eric Reid, FS out of LSU, to go to the Dallas Cowboys in the 18th round. San Francisco traded with Dallas but, San Francisco drafted Eric Reid. That is worth 2 points, right player, right pick in the round, wrong team.
After totaling all the points earned by the various experts, I performed a percentile rank on them. (No experts were hurt during the process). I then graded them on a curve and the results are:
I tried to post supporting data tables, I need to brush up on my HTML before I can do that. Next year, no need to search the web for draft info, expertise resides among us!
Mike Mayock A+
Daniel Jeremiah A
Dane Brugler B+
Pat Kirwin B+
Clark Judge B
Charley Casserly B-
Greg Cosell C+
Pete Prisco C+
Will Brinson C
Rob Rang C-
Gil Brandt D+
Bucky Brooks D-
Josh Norris D-
Matt Smith D-
Bucky Brooks and Matt Smith had 0 Direct Matches. They didn't fail because the did have many 1st round players, they just didn't know where to put them.
Since I can't do a table yet some random stats
Jerimiah 9 direct matches
Mayock 8 direct matches, had more 1st round players chosen.
suckmyditka had 6 direct matches.
Boydvv54 had 3 direct matches.
9 direct matches may not sound like many but once you factor in trades, and many other variables and options it can get very complex.