Bears' Draft Success in Past Due to Number and Position of Picks?

Doug Pensinger

A site called Draftmetrics conducted a study to determine whether pick quality or pick quantity contributed more to draft success.

If I told you that the Bears under Jerry Angelo weren't actually bad at drafting NFL talent, you'd try to laugh me out of the room. According to one metric, well, that was actually the case - at least prior to 2006, and as long as the Bears had enough draft picks.

A site called Draftmetrics conducted a study to determine whether draft success was due more to pick quality or pick quantity. The study focused on five-year starters drafted between the 1993 and 2006 draft classes. For simplicity's sake, they didn't care which team got the fifth year, as long as the player became a five-year starter.

It might surprise you to know the Bears finished in the second-highest grouping, between 27 and 30 starters produced (they had 28).

But if you dig a little deeper, you'll see the Bears' number isn't exactly as sunny as it seems. When it came to pick efficiency, the Bears scored a -0.33 (negative), which they interpret as the Bears produced approximately a third of a player less than they would be expected to produce normally. But thanks to their draft position and number of choices, they produced two-and-a-third more five-year starters than they would have expected to produce.

The moral of the story is, the Bears were less efficient with their individual picks, but their position and number of choices helped them out greatly. In other words, the definition of "Throw things, see what sticks." (The censored version, of course.)

Obviously, things are different now, as Mark Hatley and Jerry Angelo aren't in charge anymore, but it's still interesting to break down front-office metrics such as this.

And if you're curious, the Lions were a -9.00 overall and -8.88 in efficiency; the Packers were +9.00 overall and +9.72 in efficiency, and the Vikings were -1.00 overall and -3.10 in efficiency.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Windy City Gridiron

You must be a member of Windy City Gridiron to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Windy City Gridiron. You should read them.

Join Windy City Gridiron

You must be a member of Windy City Gridiron to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Windy City Gridiron. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker