FanPost

The Phil Emery "Mock Draft Method" (Data Only Over 10 Yr Average)

From his very own lips,

What we look at, not so much as mock drafts, we look at historical values of players at positions selected per round. We have our own mock draft in which we fill in from those historical values," Emery explained. "[For example] defensive linemen, say it's basically three players at defensive line that are normally taken in the first round. So you figure out, historically for this draft over a five- or a 10-year average, let's say the number is four. There have been four defensive linemen taken in every first round. So you figure out those four that are most probable, and you place them in the first round. Then you figure out what's the value for the second round. You build your mock that way and say, 'historically, this is what it should look like.' Then you have to kind of say for this draft, it's really [heavy on] offensive players. So we're gonna probably push one or two players at those positions out because there are going to be better offensive players.

Lord Emery continues on...

At the end of the day, you're going to select players that have the value for that pick. So you're going to push a few up. You just keep massaging that. We change it as the draft goes on. We take off the players that have been picked. We don't push them up. We still keep them at the value level that we had them in terms of round sequence. But it gives you a pretty good idea of who is gonna be available. You know what it's really valuable in is when you're discussing trade opportunities. You start looking at what's left on the board, historically what should be left, what those players are, what grades you have on them and the mock helps fine tune that for you. It's a tool.

I just spent 3 hours working on this and have no more time to commit to going "all the way." If anyone wants to take my data and run with a full 3, 2, or 1 round mock, please do! That's why I did this. I'm curious to his method transitions to our little WCG world and others out there who would consider themselves "experts".

If I were going to do this, I'd assign a ranking of positional strength for this years draft class (1-11) and do that "massaging" Emery speaks so fondly of. There are 11 positions listed (SPEC doesn't count). I'd shave 1 pick away from the lower ranked positions(9+10+11) and add a couple to the higher ranked positions (1+2+3) and just fill in positions by rd that way.

Here's my data. It's got some errors in it I'm sure... but only minor ones that shouldn't affect the overall scores by much. I used a couple of tools, mostly NFL.com which had a handy list of positions drafted by year by round. They screwed up their tallying of DB/SAF/FS/SS though, so I had to go do that by hand using Wikipedia draft lists going year by year.

LINK

I did have one notable observation while compiling this data. The highest average for all positions is CB in Rd 3. And while looking at them individually on wikipedia, year by year, there were VERY FEW CB names in Rd 3 that stood out to me (I recall Ledarius Webb and that's about it). It was mostly a bunch of forgotten players that are out of the league by now or I just don't remember them. Check it out for yourself.

RD 1

P/YR

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

AVG

QB

1

4

4

2

3

2

2

3

3

4

2.8

RB

0

3

1

3

3

5

2

4

3

3

2.7

WR

3

4

3

2

6

0

6

1

6

7

3.8

TE

1

0

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

OT

5

2

6

4

4

8

3

1

2

3

3.8

OG/C

4

2

2

2

2

0

1

2

2

0

1.7

DT

3

3

4

4

3

2

3

3

2

3

3

DE

4

4

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

3.8

LB

4

5

3

2

4

3

4

6

4

3

3.8

S

3

2

0

2

1

1

4

3

0

1

1.7

CB

4

3

3

5

2

5

3

4

5

4

3.8

SPEC

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

TOTL

32

32

32

32

33

31

32

32

31

32

31.9

RD 2

P/YR

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

AVG

QB

1

1

2

1

1

2

3

2

0

0

1.3

RB

5

2

4

3

1

2

4

2

2

3

2.8

WR

3

5

4

3

2

10

3

3

5

3

4.1

TE

3

1

2

1

1

3

1

3

0

2

1.7

OT

1

6

3

3

5

0

1

4

3

1

2.7

OG/C

0

2

2

1

1

2

4

4

2

3

2.1

DT

2

2

2

3

3

2

1

0

0

3

1.8

DE

2

4

3

4

5

3

5

1

3

4

3.4

LB

6

5

4

8

3

2

4

4

6

5

4.7

S

3

1

2

3

6

1

3

4

3

4

3

CB

4

2

4

2

4

5

3

5

7

3

3.9

SPEC

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0.1

TOTL

30

31

32

32

32

32

32

32

32

31

31.6

RD 3

P/YR

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

AVG

QB

1

2

1

1

0

1

1

2

3

1

1.3

RB

1

2

3

0

2

4

3

2

3

0

2

WR

5

4

4

8

7

5

8

5

3

3

5.2

TE

2

2

1

3

3

3

1

3

2

2

2.2

OT

2

2

2

1

2

3

4

3

4

1

2.4

OG/C

4

3

2

5

2

1

1

2

2

4

2.6

DT

4

4

5

3

5

3

4

2

2

4

3.6

DE

1

3

1

2

2

4

3

2

2

2

2.2

LB

4

2

7

3

3

5

5

8

6

6

4.9

S

5

2

1

3

1

4

1

2

1

3

2.3

CB

6

5

6

5

9

4

4

2

7

5

5.3

SPEC

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

0.4

TOTL

35

32

33

34

36

37

35

33

36

33

34.4

<em>This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.</em>

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