FanPost

The Phil Emery "Mock Draft Method" Mock Draft Using 10 Year Avg Data

*Disclaimer* I know some of you are sick of seeing mock drafts... well until you make a mock for yourself, you don't realize the amount of work that goes into it. So leave your negative comments in your head and not in the board.

I couldn't leave well enough alone. Saturday night I had an early night, turned on a movie, opened a beer, and started pouring over the Data I collected in my previous fan post. Next thing I knew, I was starting to piece together Rd 1 of a mock draft using Phil's method. When I woke up Sunday I had a look at it and said "Well damn't, you might as well finish what you started." So low and behold, MY full 3 rd mock draft using the Phil Emery draft method.

For those who don't recall, go look at my previous fan post. In a nutshell, I collected the historical draft data from the past 10 years by position by round (1-3). I then averaged out how many of each position gets drafted per rd of the 10 year total. I then did Phi's "massaging" and looked at strength of prospects per Round. I added additional picks to the top ranks, and eliminated some picks to the bottom ranks. You can see my results below.

Round 1 2004-2013

Round 2 2004-2013

Round 3 2004-2013

POS/YR

AVG PICKS

Rounded

Adjusted

AVG

Rounded

Adjusted

AVG

Rounded

Adjusted

QB

2.8

3

3

1.3

1

1

1.3

1

3

RB/FB

2.7

3

1

0

3

2

2

2

3

WR

3.8

4

4

4.1

4

5

5.2

5

5

TE

1

1

1

1.7

2

2

2.2

2

2

OT

3.8

4

5

2.7

2

2

2.4

2

2

OG/C

1.7

2

1

2.1

2

3

2.6

3

3

DT

3

3

3

1.8

2

3

3.6

4

4

DE

3.8

4

5

3.4

3

3

2.2

2

2

LB

3.8

4

3

4.7

5

4

4.9

5

4

S

1.7

2

2

3

3

3

2.3

2

3

CB

3.8

4

4

3.9

4

4

5.3

5

5

SPEC

0

0.1

0.4

TOTAL

31.9

34

32

31.6

31

32

34.4

33

36

Position Rankings

RD1

RD2

RD3

RB

11

RB

9

RB

5

LB

10

LB

10

LB

4

TE

9

TE

5

TE

10

G/C

8

G/C

4

G/C

8

S

7

S

7

S

7

QB

6

QB

8

QB

6

DT

5

DT

6

DT

3

CB

4

CB

3

CB

1

WR

3

WR

1

WR

11

OT

2

OT

11

OT

2

DE

1

DE

2

DE

9

So using this info, I went Round by round and just plugged in draft picks by position. It got pretty difficult at some points, but I stayed honest to the Emery draft method, even when it didn't seem quite right to me. I did each rd in the order listed above, and at the very end I did some "swapping" of picks to match better fits. The best part about this whole process (I'm not lying) is that I pretty much was able to plug in EXACTLY who I want for the Bears.

So, here we go! Typos and all... my 3rd Mock Draft. What do you guys think? Keep in mind I had to stay true to the positional data above... example, I was required to put 3 QB's & 1 RB in Rd 1... no more, no less

Pick #

NFL team

Player

Pos.

College

Explanation

1

Houston Texans

Jadeveon Clowney

DE

SC

Unless a trade happens, how could Houston pass on a generational talent like Clowney? They can take a QB at RD2#1... and they will

2

St. Louis Rams

Sammy Watkins

WR

Clemson

Even with Tavon Austin, they still don't have a true #1 receiver. They do now

3

Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Bridgewater

QB

Louisville

People say he will slide... people also forget he visited the Jaguars.... TWICE. Also, what has he done to make his stock plummet lately?

4

Cleveland Browns

Johnny Manziel

QB

Texas A&M

Just makes too much sense.

5

Oakland Raiders

Jake Matthews

OT

Texas A&M

Unless Sammy Watkins is here...

6

Atlanta Falcons

Greg Robinson

OT

Auburn

They will take Greg Robinson at #6 and they will smile big.

7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans

WR

Texas A&M

Lovie saw the success McCown had with the two towers in Chicago.

8

Minnesota Vikings

Blake Bortles

QB

UCF

I'm thinking Cristian Ponder 2.0... but that still won't stop the Vikes from drafting Bortles.

9

Buffalo Bills

Taylor Lewan

OT

Michigan

He is a monster OT and won't fall past the Bills, as they are having buyers remorse for signing Chris Williams. What were they thinking?

10

Detroit Lions

Justin Gilbert

CB

OK ST

People act like the Lions don't need a star CB in the NFC north.

11

Tennessee Titans

Khalil Mack

OLB

Buff

Tennesee is lucky the Vikings really need a QB

12

New York Giants

Eric Ebron

TE

UNC

Who are the Giants TE's?

13

St. Louis Rams

HaHa Clinton-Dix

S

Alabama

First safety off the board was always going to be HHCD

14

Chicago Bears

Aaron Donald

DT

Pitt

It just makes sense... and it feels oh so good

15

Pittsburgh Steelers

Darqueze Dennard

CB

MSU

Dennard = Ike Taylor 10 years ago but better

16

Dallas Cowboys

Anthony Barr

OLB

Cal

No way Jerry can screw this up. Demarcus Ware reborn in DFW

17

Baltimore Ravens

Odell Beckham Jr

WR

LSU

Steve Smith is not the savior at WR the Ravens need

18

New York Jets

Cyrus Kouandijo

OT

Alabama

Big time run blocker to open holes for CJ3K and their mobile QB crew

19

Miami Dolphins

Zach Martin

OT/OG

Notre Dame

Plug and play

20

Arizona Cardinals

CJ Mosely

LB

Alabama

Mosely helps them get over the loss of Karlos Dansby

21

Green Bay Packers

Calvin Pryor

S

Louisville

I'd hate to see him lighting up Bears WR's for the next 10 years... but it's going to happen

22

Philadelphia Eagles

Ryan Shazier

LB

OSU

Fast pace player for a fast pace team. Can the defense run the no huddle too?

23

Kansas City Chiefs

Kyle Fuller

CB

VT

Versatile CB for an overmatched Chiefs secondary in 2013

24

Cincinnati Bengals

Kony Ealy

DE

Mizzou

DE replacement for Michael Johnson

25

San Diego Chargers

Louis Nix

DT

Notre Dame

Irish Chocolate will plug up your middle

26

Cleveland Browns

Jason Verrett

CB

TCU

Buster Skrine moves back to slot/Nickel play where he belongs

27

New Orleans Saints

Dee Ford

DE

Auburn

Saints need to replace the veterans on defense that were jettisoned in the off season

28

Carolina Panthers

Marquise Lee

WR

USC

Cam Newton needs weapons

29

New England Patriots

Carlos Hyde

RB

OSU

History says at least 1 RB taken in the first rd. 2013 draft was a fluke. Blount is out in NE and Ridlay was in the doghouse at season end for fumble-itis

30

San Francisco 49ers

Rashede Hageman

DT

Minnesota

49ers get another toy on the defense. 49ers could and should move up in this draft though

31

Denver Broncos

Kyle Van Noy

LB

BYU

Can play DE or OLB opposite Von Miller. Replaces Robert Ayers

32

Seattle Seahawks

Xavier Su'a Filo

OG

Cal

Top true G in the draft and Seattle is happy to have him. The rich get richer

Pick #

NFL team

Player

Pos.

College

Explanation

33

Houston Texans

Derek Carr

QB

Fresno St.

Once, Twice, two times a Carr. Really, he's the best QB left

34

Washington Redskins

Morgan Moses

OT

Virginia

Giant OT will help protect RG3's wonky knee

35

Cleveland Browns

Tre Mason

RB

Auburn

He will make a great 1-2 punch with Ben Tate

36

Oakland Raiders

Kelvin Benjamin

WR

FSU

The Raiders continue to bolster their offense with a big target for Matt Schaub

37

Atlanta Falcons

Austin Sefarian Jenkins

TE

Washington

The falcon's are currently relying on '13 4th rd pick Levine Toilolo to fill Tony Gonzelez's shoes

38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kareem Martin

DE

UNC

Lovie Smith get's another Peppers clone

39

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cody Latimer

WR

Indiana

Justin Blackmon will miss at least 8 games this year due to suspension... possibly even the whole season

40

Minnesota Vikings

Jeremiah Attaochu

LB

GT

Not a bad consolation prize for skipping Mack & Barr in RD1

41

Buffalo Bills

Jace Amaro

TE

TTU

Amaro simply is a beast, and they will make the Patriots jealous 2 times a year

42

Tennessee Titans

KaDeem Carey

RB

Arizona

His college productivy won't let him fall much further

43

New York Giants

Joel Bitonio

OT

Nevada

Flexible pick matches the Giant's plug & play OL needs

44

St. Louis Rams

Bradley Roby

CB

OSU

Crime doesn't pay, except when a player falls in the draft and the Rams get a steal in the 2nd rd

45

Detroit Lions

Timmy Jernigan

DT

FSU

Question marks across the board at DT for the Lions now. Timmy Jernigan is a steal at this point.

46

Pittsburgh Steelers

Allen Robinson

WR

Penn St

Local product is a great fit for the Steelers

47

Dallas Cowboys

David Yankey

OG

Stanford

They could go safety, but solidify the trenches instead

48

Baltimore Ravens

Deonne Buchannon

S

Washington St

Ozzie Newsome does a backflip. Elam and Buchannon... scary stuff

49

New York Jets

Phillip Gaines

CB

Rice

Too early for him? Definitely not to Rex. He loves him some speedy CB's

50

Miami Dolphins

Chris Borland

LB

Wisonsin

The next Zach Thomas, maybe

51

Chicago Bears

Jimmie Ward

S

NIU

Maybe I just wanted the draft to fall this way... maybe It's fate. He will be the best pro NIU product since Michael Turner

52

Arizona Cardinals

Lamarcus Joyner

S

FSU

Once Mathieu is healthy, Arizona has TWO honey badgers running loose on the field. Scary thought

53

Green Bay Packers

Stephon Tuitt

DT

Notre Dame

Perfect for a 3/4 defense and the Pack will find a way to use him

54

Philadelphia Eagles

Brandin Cooks

WR

Oregon

Will the next Desean Jackson please stand up?

55

Cincinnati Bengals

Bashaud Breeland

CB

Clemson

He looks good in Orange, we already know that much

56

San Francisco 49ers

Davante Adams

WR

Fresno St.

49er's will have been able to give him a long hard look and will pull the trigger on a compliment to Crabtree

57

San Diego Chargers

Telvin Smith

LB

FSU

The Chargers need help all over, and Telvin Smith can help all over

58

New Orleans Saints

Weston Richburg

C

Colorado State

Richburg is the top C in the draft, and the Saints must protect the precious

59

Indianapolis Colts

Travis Sawnson

C

Arkansas

Back to back Centers to teams who desperately need it

60

Carolina Panthers

Marcus Roberson

CB

Florida

They lost a Munnerlyn and gain a Roberson

61

San Francisco 49ers

Trent Murphy

DE

Stanford

To say the least.... Aldon Smith will miss some time this year

62

New England Patriots

Demarcus Lawrence

DE

Boise ST

Improved pash rush is a need and Lawrence would fit nicely in a 3/4 system

63

Denver Broncos

Christian Jones

LB

FSU

Another member of the FSU defense gets picked up. He adds to the mix of talented LB's for Denver as Jones played all the LB spots

64

Seattle Seahawks

Dominique Easley

DT

Florida

Seattle has the depth to take a change on him

Pick #

NFL team

Player

Pos.

College

Explanation

65

Houston Texans

Bishop Sankey

RB

Washington

He will learn a TON from Arian Foster, the run at RB's begins

66

Washington Redskins

Carl Bradford

LB

Arizona St

Skins are skin deep in the middle

67

Oakland Raiders

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB

EIU

Raiders get first crack at who's left

68

Atlanta Falcons

Terrance West

RB

Towson

He'll take Steven Jackson's job

69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Keith McGill

CB

Utah

He's a large CB who could move to Safety for the Bucs if needed

70

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jeremy Hill

RB

LSU

Toby Gerhart & Jeremy Hill starring in "Black Thunder/White Lightning" coming to a theatre near you!

71

Cleveland Browns

Jordan Matthews

WR

Vanderbilt

How did he fall this far? Cleveland can't believe their luck

72

Minnesota Vikings

Will Sutton

DT

Arizona St

He'll play lean and mean as a 3T with the Vikes

73

Buffalo Bills

Jordan Tripp

LB

Montana

Allows Kiko Alonso to move outside

74

New York Giants

Jarvis Landry

WR

LSU

He'll make catches out of poorly thrown Eli passes

75

St. Louis Rams

AJ Mccarron

QB

Alabama

Fisher will coach him up something fierce

76

Detroit Lions

Terrence Brooks

S

FSU

Can play next to Ihedigbo

77

San Francisco 49ers

Jack Mewhort

G

OSU

Swing Guard/Tackle that can learn Center for the Pats

78

Dallas Cowboys

DaQuan Jones

DT

Penn St

He'll shore up their line... BIG time

79

Baltimore Ravens

Scott Crichton

DE

Oregon St

The slide finally ends, he's found a home

80

New York Jets

Jarred Abbrederis

WR

Wisconsin

A meat & potatoes WR for a meat & potatoes team

81

Miami Dolphins

Troy Niklas

TE

Notre Dame

Dustin Keller will never be the same, poor guy

82

Chicago Bears

Pierre Desir

CB

Lindenwood

The Bears were one of the few teams to attend his pro day, Very very boom/bust player

83

Cleveland Browns

Ed Reynolds

S

Stanford

Even with Whitner, they need S help

84

Arizona Cardinals

Zach Mettenberger

QB

LSU

Palmer insurance

85

Green Bay Packers

CJ Fiedoriwicz

TE

Iowa

Finley he is not, but they will be pleased when he is sealing the edge for Eddie Lacy

86

Philadelphia Eagles

Brock Vereen

S

Minnesota

He's a speedy hybrid CB/S that can be flexible for the Eagles D

87

Kansas City Chiefs

JuWuan James

OT

Tennessee

Time to start restocking their depleted OL

88

Cincinnati Bengals

Daniel McCullers

DT

Tennessee

Next to Geno Atkins, this could be comical and awesome

89

San Diego Chargers

Donte Moncrief

WR

Ole Miss

Bigger target for Rivers

90

Indianapolis Colts

Justin Ellis

DT

Louisiana Tech

Shore up the middles in Rd2 & 3

91

New Orleans Saints

Dri Archer

WR

Kent St

The new Sproles

92

Carolina Panthers

Gabe Jackson

OT

Mississippi St

Gotta keep Cam on his feets

93

New England Patriots

Chris Smith

LB

Arkansas

Can play inside our outside for the Pats 3/4

94

San Francisco 49ers

Stanley Jean Baptiste

CB

Nebraska

San Fran can have big corners too

95

Denver Broncos

Rashaad Reynolds

CB

Oregon St

He could be the best CB of the 3rd rd group

96

Minnesota Vikings

Shayne Skov

LB

Stanford

More depth at LB, he could play inside for them

97

Pittsburgh Steelers

Trai Turner

G

LSU

OL Depth

98

Green Bay Packers

Dakota Dozier

G

Furman

He's a Paladin. Nuff' Said

99

Baltimore Ravens

Walt Aikens

CB

Liberty

Tall CB's are all the rage ya'know

100

San Francisco 49ers

Jackson Jeffcoat

DE

UT

Worth a look, will be good if he can stay healthy

<em>This FanPost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.</em>

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