FanPost

On the Future of Charles Tillman

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Charles Tillman returns an interception for a touchdown. Photo credit: Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune/MCT via ESPN

The "Da Windy City" blog over at FanSided.com is a decent spot to head to when you've read through the gridiron here, and gotten tired of Michael C. Wright over at ESPN. They often have good thoughts on player development and coaching moves, and they stay current with the team fairly well. Recently, one of the regular writers contributed a piece provoked by this Peanut Tillman tweet.

As it turned out, Tillman was just joking about the great rate he was getting at a Courtyard Marriott, but the writer didn't know that, and proceeded to open up the debate about whether or not keeping Tillman would be a smart move for the Bears. He did little to contribute to the argument, however, only claiming that Tillman "was also among the group of Lovie Smith’s players who never gave Marc Trestman or his coaches a chance to succeed in Chicago," and likening the retention of Tillman to a "mistake" similar to those committed over the past two seasons.

While his case wasn't as fleshed out as it could've been, I'd like to counter these two points and offer a differing perspective on this particular decision the Bears have facing them this offseason. In essence, I'll be defending the idea of keeping Charles Tillman.

First, let's take a look at the claims made in the other article. Did Tillman show some sort of perverse loyalty to Lovie and actively seek to sabotage Trestman's time with the Bears? Disregarding that I find the idea of a veteran wasting a season with such a childish tantrum to be completely ludicrous, let's examine the facts. Nothing in particular from Tillman's contributions on and off the field stuck out as insubordinate, in my memory, at least, so I went scouring the interwebs for evidence of slights against the former Bears head coach. After a brutal season (one that Tillman was forced to watch 14 games of from the sidelines), he was asked rather bluntly whether or not he thought Trestman should stay.

"This is when you find out what you have and it's not just about Trestman being here or not, it's about the 52 or 53 guys putting out good films out there, because there are 32 teams out there," he said. "You want to put game film for those teams, whether he's here or not that's not the point. It's putting good games on that resume. That's has nothing to do with the coaches, that's on the players."

- Tillman, in an interview with NFL.com, 12/18/2014

Well, that's certainly not a condemnation of the coaching staff. What about earlier in the season, when it was clear Trestman's career had taken a nosedive, and the sting of losing Lovie was fresher? You may remember Tillman spoke on Trestman and Tucker's motivating halftime speeches that pushed the players to a better second half, and a win over the Buccaneers. He took the company line and directed praise to the higher-ups. That's textbook class and professionalism right there. How about this comment, from when Trestman had just joined up with the Bears?

"I think myself and the rest of the players have bought into Coach Trestman’s scheme and his system and we want to win and we want to win now. We’re not in a rebuild mode. We don’t have time to rebuild. We’re in the winning now business. The win RIGHT now business."

- Tillman, to the Tribune, 7/17/2013

Considering that Tillman was a vocal supporter of Trestman publicly, and that there are no reports of him stirring things up in the locker room or otherwise, I think it's safe to dismiss the notion of Tillman's sabotage as some more of that which leaves a bull through the back exit. Moreover, if Tillman's injury exposed the lack of depth in the Bears secondary (and it most certainly did), the fault lies with former GM Phil Emery and not Tillman, surely.

Let's do away with this notion that retaining Tillman was a "mistake" by examining the facts then, shall we? If Tillman showed a decline in production, he shouldn't have been brought back, at least not without a serious pay cut and consideration towards replacement. In matter of fact, regardless of whether or not Tillman regressed as a player, the Bears let Tillman test free agency, brought him back for a relatively modest sum, and drafted a CB with their first round pick (higher than I thought we had to go to get Fuller, but there you have it). It may be the one thing that the Bears administration did right last year. Yet, despite their prudence in the matter, they were rewarded with the unfortunate situation of a major, season-ending injury.

The Bears defense hasn't looked worse in years. In fact, without Tillman and Briggs healthy in the latter parts of the season, it may have been the worst in franchise history. As you can see below, Peanut was a wildly productive member of the secondary whenever he had his health (which was often). Projections from 2013 put that season among the rest over 16 games, and 2014 must simply be labeled "Inadequate evidence."

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- Stats provided by ESPN.

The stats above tell me one thing: proceed with caution. Tillman was absolutely regarded as an elite defensive back in the past, but there's never certainty in football future. A player must be evaluated in every way possible. One helpful metric for extrapolating Tillman's production into the next few years could be the average age of decline for defensive backs in the NFL. Fortunately, some brodude from Bleacher Report (yeah, I know, but he's using Pro Football Reference) has already lined up the relevant stats and charted them, as you can see, below. N.B. The vertical axis displays "approximate value," which is a mostly objective calculation of the portion of production the player contributes to the team's overall performance. It is calculated on a per position basis, and most nearly represents a correlation to MVP status. That is to say, the higher the "AV," the more likely the player is to be considered the team's MVP.

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Essentially, the chart above suggests that Tillman, who will be entering his 13th season as a pro in 2015, has several years of "high value" ahead of him. Granted, this is assuming that he stays healthy for any given season. Additionally, it is important to remain that stats are stats and averages form because points of data (i.e. players) lie above AND below them. However, the data hints that Tillman is not past his prime. Statistically speaking, a healthy Tillman is likely still every bit the player he was in his first 12 seasons. For a team desperately needing a more secure secondary, that is good news indeed.

Let's consider another aspect of Tillman's value. As someone who looked at this most recent draft by Emery as yet another disappointment before the season even began, I have to feel that we can expect the coming season to be full of performances from new players, whether they be rookies or free agents. Tillman is part of a very small core of veterans who have been part of the team since Super Bowl XLI. He was an integral part of the best defense in the league then. That been-there know-how and winning attitude is exactly what the Bears need going into the next couple of seasons. It is exactly what they've lacked in the "leadership" of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall. While it would be best to have it come from within, that's not always possible. However, the Bears will not have a great deal of similarly-experienced options in free agency, especially not at a reasonable price.

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The Bears will have a hard time luring and securing the likes of Darrelle Revis (pictured), or Chris Harris from free agency. Photo credit: Charles Krupa/AP Photo via Boston.com

Those who imagine Tillman and Briggs were part of some subversive conspiracy are suffering from irrational delusions of their own design. It's not hard to remember back to Briggs giving the game ball to Trestman after the Bears' win over the playoff-bound Bengals in 2013. Briggs may have matured some in his years with the Bears, and a shift to inside linebacker should be considered. I chalk that maturation up to the positive influence of players like Brian Urlacher and Charles Tillman. These two were team players, loyal soldiers, and if they had some preference for Lovie over Trestman (as was suggested by Tillman's exit to free agency last summer), it's only because they could see what most Chicagoans couldn't at the time: Lovie was a winner, Trestman wasn't. If I had to pick two players from the Bears current roster that would be team captains for next season, it would be hard to point anywhere other than Tillman and Kyle Long (Tim Jennings is a heck of a player, but I'm not sure he's captain material).

The Green Bay Packers did the Bears a massive favor this season when they demonstrated what veteran leadership can do. After a rough start to the season, Rodgers took the soapbox and uttered one word. He even spelled it for the denizens of a state that received a C on their public education report card. The Packers righted the ship and sailed it all the way to the NFC Championship game. I'm reminded of the various would-be turnaround moments in the 2014 Bears season that started with its own championship aspirations. The team remained uninspired and in turmoil until the end. Going forward, Chicago won't likely see another Super Bowl with Tillman on the roster, despite the dramatic turnarounds in John Fox's history. However, the franchise might not see another Super Bowl in the next decade if they allow Cutler and Marshall to be the "leaders" of the newly evolving locker room.

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Dear Ryan Pace,

Re-sign Tillman for 1-2 years, along with Paea, De La Puente, Williams (or Briggs, if that's what Fox/Fangio wants), and yeah, sure, Clausen. Flush the rest. Draft a quality CB prospect in need of refinement in the later rounds (fingers crossed the nearly NFL-ready Kevin White from TCU falls past the 4th). Snag a safety... make that two, in free agency. Draft Vic Fangio whatever LBs/DEs/NTs he wants. No one's asking you to fix the Cutler conundrum just yet, but maybe take a flier on a late rounder or see if you can trade away for an Aaron Murray type. Please don't screw this up. We believe in you.

With unfounded hope,

Wheaties Eater and the sane portion of Bears Nation

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.