FanPost

An Outsider's Perspective on the Bears Season

As you can tell by the title, I am not a Bears fan.

I did, however, already do this for the Broncos, and as you can see if you read that prediction, I am pessimistic. This is because this is the time of year when every fan assumes that whatever went wrong for their team last year will be at least somewhat fixed this year, while whatever went right will certainly continue to go right.

In this analysis, I'm doing exactly that–but for every team. You see, when you make that assumption for your team, your team looks much improved. But when you do that for every other team in the league, well...

Let's just say that you have to temper your expectations a little bit. So, let's start.

Week 1: at Houston Texans

Prediction: Loss

The Bears have never beaten the Texans. I don't think they do so this year.

The last time the Bears faced Brock Osweiler, his team won because the defense held strong, the running game consistently gained ground, and he did just enough in between to win.

The Texans field a good defense that over the last half of last season allowed only 13.5 points per game in a stretch that included holding the Saints and the Bengals (with Dalton, who was in the running for MVP before he broke his thumb) to 6 points apiece. Not only that, but they picked up Lamar Miller, who in his time with the Dolphins flashed a lot of talent but was for some unknown reason (hint: Joe Philbin isn't a very good coach) not getting very many carries, largely due to the fact that the Dolphins were prone to abandoning the run. In other words, to replace an old Arian Foster, they brought in a younger running back to carry the mantle.

I think that Osweiler will be able to do enough in between handing the ball to Miller and relying on the defense to get a win.

However, in defense of the Bears, John Fox's teams usually use a bend-but-don't-break defense. If they can hold the Texans to field goals in Osweiler's hot half, they should be good in his cold half. (As an example, see the Broncos home game against the Raiders last year. Also, %@#$ the Raiders.)

Week 2: vs. Eagles

Prediction: Win

I think that the Eagles will be somewhat improved this year.

Allow me to digress. A professor I know, when talking about field trips (specifically referring to a planned one in San Francisco), mentioned that there's only so much goodwill the students have. Therefore, you have to ensure that you don't use it all up. So, if you're going to trap the students in a conference hall for eight hours, it's a good idea to allow them to have what is essentially a day off to check out the sights. Similarly, if you allow them to have this day off, you can request they spend time doing something boring. While it is not strictly necessary to do this, it is necessary if you want to keep morale up and ensure that everyone has a chance to enjoy the experience and are willing to do as you ask.

The same principle seems to me to apply to locker rooms. Every coach has some form of system that they require their players to buy into. They have expectations for how hard the players work, for what the players will do, and for what will happen on the field.

However, the players must buy into the system. If the players stop buying in, then they will no longer work as hard, and the whole thing falls apart. When the players quit buying into the system, the coach has "lost the locker room."

Chip Kelly had his system. It involved specific nutrition, specific workouts, curfews, and generally a plan for "how you will live your life as a football player." What it didn't have was a consideration for "downtime" or "hey, these are people you're working with, not robots."

Granted, I am taking much of this from Evan Mathis' testimony on Chip Kelly (Broncos fan, remember?), but it still seems like a valid argument. When Chip Kelly was made GM, he cut or traded good players under the rationale that he could get his system to work with any players. (This was not the case.) As mentioned above, his system did not have a consideration for the human factor–which neatly ties back in with the professor I cited. Chip Kelly seemingly believed that because he could run his players' lives in college (because as the coach, he gets to decide who has a shot regardless of talent), he could do so in the pros, which turned out not to be the case at all (simply because if you get rid of talented players, other teams come sniffing around and pick them up).

This wasn't a problem his first year, in part because he wasn't power mad and in part because he was winning. That first year, the players bought in–it's what they're used to doing, and bringing an all up-tempo, all the time offense to the NFL isn't per se a bad idea; if it works, it's great, and that first year it worked. But the second year, some cracks began to show, and it became more apparent to players who had been there that Chip Kelly wasn't exactly the greatest as a leader, and some of them quit buying in (McCoy and Mathis come to mind).

Then, last year, it all fell apart. Chip Kelly getting rid of the talent that happened to have personalities, the other players not buying into his system anymore, the tensions in the locker room...all of this came to a head, the Eagles went to &$%@, and Chip Kelly got fired with one game left in the season.

What I'm getting at here is that Kelly screwed up the Eagles, but he's not there anymore and the Eagles will likely be at least somewhat improved simply by getting rid of him. At the very least, their locker room should be better. However, despite this, the loss of talent and changing systems will provide some problems for the Eagles–and we still don't know how they will fare in their post-Andy Reid era.

This is a long-winded way of saying that although I believe the Eagles will do better without Kelly, I still think that their 7-9 record last season was not a mirage, and that the Bears will get a win against them in Soldier Field.

Week 3: at Dallas Cowboys

Prediction: Loss

Hey, guess which team's quarterback situation was so lousy that they only won one game out of eleven after their starter went down, and won three of five games with him (with him getting injured in both of the losses)?

Now guess how close those games were. Given how good Tony Romo has been historically (at least through the first 55 minutes of a game–I swear, he's like the anti-Tebow) and how the weak point of the Cowboys with him under center has been their defense, you'd say huge losses, right?

Wrong. Without Romo, they had losses of 6, 24 (vs. the Patriots in week 5), 7, 1, 6, 4, 21 (vs. the Packers), 3, 10, and 11 points. Their defense gave up, on average, 23.4 points per game–not great, but not horrible, and good enough for 16th in the league (so exactly middle of the pack). Not only that, but the Cowboys still had a good running game.

This year, Romo is returning, the running game should still be on point, and the defense probably won't suffer a big fallback. Add into that the fact that they have the #4 pick in the draft and will have good picks all the way down due to their poor showing this year, and they look like a very tough team to beat.

I think the Bears will not win this game. The Cowboys will take it in Jerryworld.

Week 4: vs. Detroit Lions

Prediction: Loss

The jury is still out on Jim Caldwell. One group would argue that he's incompetent and spends the entirety of the game staring at his play cards like they're a menu written in Cantonese, that 2015 was a good example of exactly how good of a coach he is, and that his first year with the Lions was an oddity. The other group would argue that his first year is the better example, that he is a competent coach, that he just needs time to get everything on the same page, and that 2015 was the oddity.

My opinion is that at this point, it's too early to tell what he'll be. However, even with the loss of Calvin Johnson, the Lions still seem like they have plenty of talent. After a horrific start to the year, they showed some promise in the final (meaningless for them) stretch of the season. It's possible that Caldwell pulls out another playoff berth–or at least shows why he deserves to be a head coach in the NFL–and part of this includes beating the Bears in Chicago.

Week 5: at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Loss

The Colts were not as bad as they looked last year.

Actually, no, let me rephrase that. The Colts were exactly as bad as they looked last year and were exposed as a kinda mediocre (if not poor) team without elite quarterbacking to make them look like a contender.

But this year they get Andrew Luck back, and he should be healthy again. This is bad news for Colts opponents, as a healthy Andrew Luck is a top 10 quarterback in the league.

If you've watched the Colts over the last 15 years, you know that when they have an elite QB, they're top of the league. When their QB goes down, they suck. (True of any team, sure, but Manning and now Luck made up for a lot on those teams.) And the Colts quarterback will presumably be elite this year.

Week 6: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Win

I think the Jaguars will be a lot better this year. Now, I'm not predicting a winning season for them–I don't expect them to suddenly take charge of the AFC South, especially with the Colts getting their quarterback back and the Texans (to my mind at least) improving. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish third in the division this year.

I just think that their third-place finish will be with a record closer to 8-8 than 5-11, and it'll be a close 8-8 where if a couple of bounces went their way they'd be in the playoffs.

But this feels like a game that the Bears will win. I don't know why. But in my gut, looking at the Bears schedule, something's telling me that the Bears should win this game.

Week 7: at Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Loss

I do not like the Packers. It's because of their fans.

Honestly, I could probably care less about the team were it not for their fans. They're some of the worst (I won't count them down), most stuck-up, most self-absorbed fans I've ever seen. They're all too willing to claim that they know a lot about football and football history, but ask most of them who Bobby Layne was and you'll get a blank stare. Hey, guess what, geniuses: just because your team has won a bunch of championships doesn't mean you're great fans. It means you root for a good team.

Packers fans "own" the football team in the same way I "own" Jarritos; I may buy their soda, but my opinion means jack-all to the company. Most of them pre-2011 were lamenting ever having let Farve get away–and then when Rodgers wins a Super Bowl, suddenly they always knew that Rodgers kid was going to be something special.

Also it irks me that Packers fans claim they should have won Super Bowl XXXII and love to employ revisionist history to claim that the Broncos gameplan would never have worked against them twice. Hey Pack fans, if I remember correctly, Terrell Davis was ripping you up in the first quarter, went blind from a migrane, came back in and fumbled, and then proceeded to resume ripping your defense apart. If he takes his meds, maybe it's a blowout (the Broncos offense was rolling at the end of the first quarter, while the Packers offense was falling apart, but without Terrell Davis the Broncos were unable to do anything offensively in the second quarter).

I've digressed quite a lot. Point is, I hate the Packers and Packers fans, and Weeks 7-9 would have been hilarious if not for things going wrong for my team in that span. And I loved it when the Bears came into Lambeau, on Thanksgiving, when Brett Farve's number was being retired, and beat the Packers by exactly 4 points. But I don't see them doing it again this year.

Hopefully I'm wrong, and the entirety of Wisconsin collapses into screams of anguish. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Week 8: vs. Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Loss

I know, I'm a real downer, aren't I?

The Vikings just seem to be on the upswing, and I think that continues this year. If they can manage to sweep the Packers, I think they take the division.

And I think they take this game.

Week 9: Bye Week

Prediction: Uncertain

The bye week comes to Chicago in Week 9. The road to it is rough and choppy, but the bye week seems to be weathering the storm well. Thus far, the bye week has promised there will be rest and healing, but its opponents contend that the bye week is merely a bunch of empty promises wrapped in pretty packaging.

As the campaign trail has heated up, the variations on these arguments have gotten more and more hotheaded. One of the bye week's opponent's has argued viciously that the bye week's plans are nothing but a delaying tactic, and any crises it faces are swept under the rug until the candidate is no longer responsible for them.

The bye week has responded to this by citing a record of always showing up when scheduled and always doing whatever can be done to ensure success. How the bye week does in Chicago is sure to be a turning point in this election, folks.

Week 10: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Prediction: Win

I can't say I approve of the firing of Lovie Smith by the Buccaneers after just two years, but I understand them thinking they need to keep their offensive coordinator around to ensure that Jameis Winston can build off of his experience in the system. After all, we saw what constantly switching offensive systems did to Jay Cutler. But I don't think that it's the best move, and I believe that while Winston improves and the Bucs with him, it's not going to be anything that gets them to the playoffs. 8-8, maybe. And I think that the Bears are good enough to pull off a win here.

Week 11: at New York Giants

Prediction: Win

The Giants are an up-and-down team at best, and they just fired Tom Coughlin...or maybe he's still on the staff in an advisory position. Regardless, the Giants are an up-and-down team, and I think they'll be down against the Bears.

Week 12: vs. Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Win

Three in a row? I'm just spoiling you guys, aren't I.

Fact is, the Tennessee Titans do not look like they're getting better to me. True, Marcus Mariota may make the transition into NFL quarterback well. The Titans recent (and future) draft picks may all pan out. The team could gel together and turn into a force in the NFL.

But this is not looking like it'll be their year. The Titans have drafted #1 two years in a row. They were this year quick to fire Wisenhunt (and firing a coach in the middle of his third year when he hasn't done anything egregiously wrong stinks of poor ownership). Despite the fact that they should get better since they probably won't get worse, it does not look that way to me.

At the moment the Titans lack direction, talent, and coaching.

And the Bears lack none of those (in large quantities).

Week 13: vs. San Francisco 49ers

Prediction: Win

This is a game that to me looks like a trap game.

Over there in the Bay Area, Mark Davis' haircut is competing for "Football Buffoon of the Year" with the comic trio of Jed York, Trent Baalke, and Chip Kelly. (Also with certain other people, but those are the main candidates in that area.) And, while I may hate the Raiders, I have to grudgingly admit that they're on the right path.

%@#$ the Raiders.

Anyway with that out of the way, let's focus on the trio of York, Baalke, and Kelly.

Jed York is the CEO of the 49ers. He's the one who hired Jim Harbaugh. He's also the one who fired Jim Harbaugh despite Harbaugh being a good coach. His ego is the size of the Sears Tower.

Trent Baalke is the GM of the 49ers. He's been there since 2005. In that time, the team has only had three successful years, so naturally he hated the coach who led them to those three successful years. His ego is the size of the Seattle Space Needle.

Chip Kelly is the coach of the 49ers. He was hired this last year after his ego shoved several blue-chip players out the door and his "high-powered offense" quit functioning. (Strangely enough, an eternal hurry-up offense doesn't work if you go three and out on every single drive. It just tires out your defense. Who knew?) His ego is the size of "You'll do what I say because I'm the head coach, now drink this protein shake."

So we can see that the 49ers were a dumpster fire last year, and they're probably only going to get even worse this year. It's the perfect recipe for a trap game.

But the logic "they gotta lose, it'll be a trap game" does not actually hold up very well when you consider that's true for any game they play. So I'm picking the Bears in this one in a blowout, but if it's close late, well...

I'd worry.

Week 14: at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Win

So, remember earlier when I predicted the Lions would be on the upswing this year?

I still think that they're the third best team in the division.

Not second, not first, third.

And they're not that good on their home turf.

Bears win.

Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Loss

Remember how the Packers will be getting better this year?

Remember how Aaron Rodgers is still a great quarterback?

Remember how Jay Cutler can't outduel him in Chicago?

Yeah.

Week 16: vs. Washington Redskins

Prediction: Loss

I am not sold on Kirk Cousins as a quality NFL starter. Yes, he had a run of good games last year. Yes, he quit turning the ball over as much in the latter half of the season. And yes, he did lead the Redskins to the playoffs.

But the franchise tag communicates that the Redskins management are not sold on him either. And that's fair–even when Kirk Cousins was doing a good job as quarterback, he still didn't seem like a great quarterback (decent, yes, but not great). Combine that with his history of going on turnover jags, and them tagging him to get a better look at whether he's changed or not suggests that they want to make sure he's the future of the franchise before handing over a big contract (good idea).

I think that Washington will be decent next year, though. While the Cowboys will likely rise, I think that the Redskins will be good enough to be in second place in the division, although they probably won't bag a wild card spot.

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Loss

The Vikings will not magically turn into a dumpster fire between Week 8 and Week 17. Probably.

Summary:

Overall: 7-9
Home: 4-4

Away: 3-5
Division: 1-5
Conference: 4-2
Non-Conference: 2-2

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.