FanPost

Muhammad Wilkerson Trade Negotiations


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There has been much consideration on whether Muhammad Wilkerson could come to the Bears. What would this cost? How valuable might he be? h

These are all very good questions that will likely not be answered until the dust settles and hindsight becomes clear. I decided to apply some basic negotiations preparation standards to how the Bears and Jets negotiation landscape might look and what fair compensation might actually be.

1 Assumption: Everyone is willing to pay for a long term extension on nearly equal terms. (Anyone taking Mo will want him long term and almost any deal would require some kind of expected long term compensation in place.) In my opinion, Mo Wilkerson is going to cost any suitor $15 Million to possibly more than $17 Million per year, without factoring the impact of guaranteed money and signing bonuses.

A negotiation is all about positions

New York JETS Best Alternative to Not Agreeing to an Offer (BATNA)

Option 1: Do Nothing

The JETS very well might choose to play with Mo on the roster, choosing to jettison another player’s contract to make space. There are a few moving parts here, but this depends on how valuable the JETS see Wilkerson dawning the colors of the gang-green.

Value for NYJ: They keep DE96 Mo, but will likely lose another high profile player or create bigger issues in years where DE91 Richardson will also look for similar payouts. The JETS will likely be hard pressed to find a decent mix of space for emergencies, cap room to sign QB14 Fitzpatrick, and sign all their draft picks. The JETS get to hold out hope that they can sign a long term deal for Wilkerson that gives them enough flexibility to position themselves dominantly in future years. If Wilkerson doesn’t sign, their haul for this decision is losing a high profile player (I’d guess LT60 D’Brickashaw Ferguson), losing their best QB option, but receiving a likely 3rd round compensation pick (which is like a fourth rd pick) three drafts from now.

Realistic?: This is what happens if the JETS get greedy or overly competitive (better described as stubborn). Some reports have indicated that Mo is unhappy and unwilling to sign long term with the NY, which makes this a nightmare scenario for the JETS. However, impasses typically result from two negotiating parties that are unwilling to compromise, much less look for mutual gain.

Option 2: Remove the tag from Mo Wilkerson

This very well could be the option that happens, but as a work around for a trade being in place. However, this illustration still helps show Mo’s minimum value. The JETS remove the tag from Mo and let him enter the Free Agency. The JETS would be looking for compensatory picks in this scenario.

Value for the NYJ: Likely a 3rd round comp next year (which is pretty much a 4th), assuming they think that the Forte acquisition doesn’t offset this value. Cap relief.

Realistic?: This would be a sensible analysis. Do you choose your franchise LT and your serviceable QB, with room to sign your draft class in exchange for your All-Pro DE that would also garner you a 3rd round comp pick? Tough choices, but I see this being an extraordinarily difficult choice as this would mean you’ve likely passed up better options by playing hardball elsewhere.

Option 3: Find another suitor.

The JETS want everyone to think this is their best option with many suitors in place, because the other scenarios aren’t great for them. Ideally the JETS find someone to give them a 1st round pick and possibly more.


Value for NYJ: They can then pay their QB Fitzpatrick and reload on their defensive line with much younger and cheaper talent and highlight both DE92 Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson.

Realistic?: In my estimation, there aren’t that many potential suitors that could absorb Mo’s contract without pain elsewhere. Of the list of teams with the top remaining cap space, the 49ers, Bears, Raiders and Colts would require the least amount of roster restructuring to sign Wilkerson long term. There was some talk about him moving inside for 4-3 teams like the Giants and Bucs, but that is a lot of money for a player that would likely be under-utilized at that position. Other teams could come into play by creating other holes on their roster or kicking their theoretical cap can down the road. This is likely the most likely choice, All-Pros usually aren’t used for trades unless the organization or player has created an environment where the player needs to be traded, as the JETS have likely done. This picture might be completely different if the Forte signing takes compensation picks off the table for 2017.

The Chicago Bears BATNA

Do Nothing:
Benefit: The Bears keep their pick and a highly touted ¾ DE could fall to them in the first or second. The Bears maintain cap space that could be used next year.

Realistic?: Very likely if the asking price is too high.

Trade elsewhere:

If the Bears think that the asking price is too high, but finds a desperate need that may go unaddressed in the draft the Bears could find other suitors.

Benefit: Could find an average to above average player for a smaller cost in draft picks.

Realistic?:If the price of Wilkerson proves to be too high and the Bears are indeed highly interested, this may signal the Bears want to bring in proven help. I think this is something they explore if Wilkerson isn’t an option.

Guessing Reservation Price

Reservation Price is the lowest offer that you’d take in a negotiation, not to be mistaken with the alternatives to not agreeing. These are much more difficult to surmise, so they represent best guesses.

JETS: What is the worst pick that the JETS would take in return for Muhammad Wilkerson? What the JETS are asking for and what they’d be willing to take are two different things. I’d imagine the JETS have been receiving indications of interest from a few teams. They have publicly reported that what they’re being offered is too low. However, I can’t tell whether that means they’re being offered 2nd or 3rd round picks (possibly less) or whether they’ve been offered high level 1st round picks. I’m not so sure that GM’s have been readily offering high first round consideration given the perceived value of such picks.

I’d have to think that given the JETS BATNAs, they’re reservation price must be dragged down. After all is said and told they very well might take a low second round value, or some first round swaps of similar value. Their floor for compensation is a third round compensatory pick in 2017, while possibly losing Mo, their franchise LT and QB.

BEARS: What is the worst compensation the Bears would be willing to give up? This is a great question. There is a lot of value in bringing in first round players with a lot of value that can come up through the Bears organization, learn how to be a pro the Bears way, and stay relatively cap friendly until they are nearing the peak of their productive years.

From my perspective, the Bears should be relatively defensive with at least their first round pick. We are a rising team and we never know what value may fall into our laps in the first, even if this means later in the first. The Bears are just beginning the Pace years and it would be nice to have high level picks to fill the pipeline. However, Mo is an all-pro. He helps the team in now and for the remaining half decade in a way that we could only hope our first round draft pick can. In terms of compensation, I think the Bears might be willing to part with a low first round level of total comp. This may mean our first’s swap, or we take a number of lower picks in exchange for our first. However, I believe the Bear’s overall number 11 is off the table.

So what is fair compensation?

There may be no fair compensation. Both parties may have wildly different standards of equity and fairness. So if both sides focus too much on what is fair, they very well might just end talks in impasse.

However, I think our high second round pick and possibly a fourth should amicable enough compensation for both parties to be happy. Given the trade comparables that have been explored previously on WCG, this very well might be more value than others might be theoretically offering.


These are all general musings and guesses and admittedly built off more than a few assumptions. What are your thoughts? Is there something I’m completely misjudging?

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.