FanPost

What can we expect from Mike Glennon?

The bulk of Glennon’s playing time came in 2013, when he started 13 games for the Tampa Bay Bucs. So to get a feel for how he did that year, let’s compare his numbers from that season with Jay Cutler’s career numbers and with the league as a whole in the 2016 season.

Completion percentage: Glennon’s 59.4 was a bit below Cutler’s 61.9, and it would put him in a cohort with Siemian, Kaepernick, Osweiler, and Bortles. The top QBs are around 70, and a mid-tier starter would be somewhere around 63-65. So definite room for improvement there.

TD%: Glennon’s 4.6 matches Cutler’s career percentage exactly. Top QBs get 6-7, mid tier is 4-5. Bottom of the barrel is around 3. Solid mid tier, between Kaepernick and Palmer.

INT%: This is where Glennon has an advantage over Cutler: 2.2 to 3.3. Best are under 1, mid tier is in the 2.0 to 2.3 range, and above 3 puts you at the bottom of the list. Again, Glennon, solidly hits that middle bunch, near names like Siemian, Flacco, Brees, Wentz, and Palmer.

Yards per completion: Cutler’s 11.7 exceeds Glennon’s 10.6. League leaders are around 13, mid: 11.4-11.6, bottom: 10 or lower. Comps: Manning, Smith, Bortles. So Glennon was throwing short more than going for the long ball.

Sack%: No getting around it, Glennon got sacked a ton. His 8.8% is a lot higher than Cutler’s 6.3% and would put him at the bottom of the list, in company with Taylor and Kaepernick. Top: about 3, mid: 5-6.

Rating: Glennon’s 83.9 is a bit under Cutler’s 85.7. Top: 105-120, mid: 90-94, bottom: below 75. 83.9 would land him between Siemian and Flacco.

So overall, we’re building a picture of a relatively immobile pocket passer who is more of a game manager than a gunslinger, yet still struggles with accuracy. But still, he flirts with being an average starting NFL QB. 23rd highest paid QB, probably the 23rd best QB as well.

Now, let’s think about what’s different between his new situation and what he had to work with in 2013.

Experience: When talking about rookie QBs, people often say that it’s beneficial for them to sit on the bench for a season or two before they get thrust into action. Well, Glennon has had a couple of seasons on the bench, so maybe he’s improved from that experience. At the least, he’s got that 2013 season under his belt, along with 5 starts the next season. So it’s reasonable to think that he might show some moderate improvement.

Targets: In 2013, Glennon’s top target was a 30 year old Vincent Jackson. Jackson had 78/1224/7 that year and was still a legit #1 WR, which may or may not be something Glennon will have in 2017. However, the next leading receiver for the Bucs that year was a rookie TE named Tim Wright, who caught 54/571/5, but was out of the league after 2 more seasons. The third down back, Brian Leonard, caught 29/179/0. The other WRs were Tiquan Underwood and Mike Williams, who combined for 46/656/6 and were both out of the league within 1 more season. All in all, I’d take White/Wheaton/Meredith/Sims/Miller over that bunch.

Running game: The Bucs averaged 3.8 ypc that year, good for 25th. They ranked 21st in attempts per game. Last year, Chicago got 4.6, ranking 6th. They only ranked 25th in attempts per game, though. Pretty safe to say that Glennon will get more help from the run game this year than he did in 2013. Especially if they actually remember to call running plays…

Offensive line: The 2013 Bucs ranked 27th with a sack percentage of 8.4, while the 2016 Bears ranked 8th with 4.8. Between that and the big edge in rushing ypc, I’d say Glennon’s looking forward to playing behind this OL.

Summary: Mike Glennon’s 2013 season was only moderately below average, and there are several legitimate reasons to believe that he’ll be better than that next season. The things to keep an eye on include whether he can move in the pocket enough to avoid sacks, whether he can pull his completion percentage up, and whether he can stretch the field at all.


This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.