Just tell them you’re trying to cure a seven year ache
And see what else your little heart can take
Rosanne Cash
How long should Bears fans wait to know if Mitchell Trubisky will lead the team to a championship? What is a reasonable time to wait after quarterback acquisition? If history is any guide, we should experience a seven year itch. The first Super Bowl winning quarterback, Bart Starr, entered the NFL in 1956, won his first championship in his sixth year. The first Super Bowl was Starr’s fourth championship, and Super Bowl II was his fifth. The second quarterback to win a Super Bowl, Joe Namath, led his team to glory in his fourth year in the pros, in his case the AFL, not the NFL. The third Super Bowl winning quarterback was Len Dawson, who won his first championship in 1962, his sixth year in the pros, but just his first year with the Dallas Texans, soon to become the Kansas City Chiefs. Johnny Unitas won in his third year in the NFL, followed by Roger Staubach in his fourth year, Bob Griese in his sixth year, and Terry Bradshaw in his fifth year. After ten Super Bowls every winning team was led by a quarterback who managed to lead his team to a championship within the first six years of his career.
The first quarterback to break the pattern was Oakland’s Ken Stabler. Stabler went to the Super Bowl in 1976, nine years after he was drafted. Oddly, he never played his first two years in the pros, 1968 and 1969, so his first championship came in his seventh year as an active player. Staubach and Bradshaw won the next three Super Bowls, leading us up to Jim Plunkett. Plunkett was in his tenth year in the NFL, but only his second after the Raiders acquired him. If the rule is loosely applied, it could be argued it was just his second year in Oakland, so the idea of a quarterback winning within seven years of joining a team still holds, but just for two more years. In 1981 Joe Montana won the Super Bowl in his third season.
If wasn’t until 1982 and Joe Theisman that we see the first truly long-term quarterback win the Super Bowl. Theisman was drafted by the Dolphins, never made the team, spent three years in Canada, and nine years in Washington before his big moment arrived. The league then immediately return to form, with Montana winning another, Jim McMahon winning in his third year, Phil Simms in his seventh, Doug Williams in his eighth, but, like Plunkett, only his second year after Washington acquired him. After Williams, Montana won two more rings. Simms and the Giants won again, before Mark Rypien won in his sixth year.
Troy Aikman won in his fourth year and then won two more times in the next three years. In 1994 Steve Young won his third Super Bowl ring, but first as a starter. He had been in the league for ten years, including eight with San Francisco, but he seems to be an exceptional case. Because he was second on the depth chart behind Joe Montana, his long wait to be the quarterback on a Super Bowl winner differed from most others. Most teams wait for the roster, the quarterback, and the moment to meet. In San Francisco they weren’t waiting to see if Young could do it because they knew Montana could. I can’t think of another instance when one team had two such exceptional quarterbacks on their roster at one time, although I suppose Drew Brees and Philip Rivers in San Diego were somewhat close.
1996 saw Brett Favre win in his fifth year, followed by the most exceptional great quarterback of them all. John Elway finally won his first Super Bowl in his 15th season. I can’t think of another example of a quarterback spending so much time with one team before finally leading them to a championship. After Elway’s two Super Bowl wins, Kurt Warner won in his second year, followed by Trent Dilfer in his seventh, and then Tom Brady in his second year. Brad Johnson led Tampa Bay to victory in 2002 after nine years in the NFL, but only two in Tampa Bay. Roethlisberger won after only two years in Pittsburgh.
In 2006 Peyton Manning joined Theisman and Elway as the three who played with one team for nine years or more before leading that team to a championship. One year later Eli Manning caused the league to revert to form, winning after four years, and then Drew Brees again after nine. Like Brad Johnson, Doug Williams, and Jim Plunkett, Brees won rather quickly after changing teams, in his fourth year in New Orleans. Peyton Manning, Ken Stabler, Joe Theisman and John Elway ended up the only ones who spent nine years or more with one team before winning it all.
Finally, after Brees, we’ve seen three more quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers in his sixth year, Joe Flacco in his fifth year, and Russell Wilson in his second year, join the list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. In the end, thirty different quarterbacks became starters and winners in the fifty-one Super Bowls to date, but only four of the thirty kept their fans waiting nine years or more. Twenty-five of the other twenty-six spent seven years or fewer with the team they led to Super Bowl victory. The twenty-sixth one was Steve Young.
So, Bears fans, you should hope your seven year itch doesn’t turn into a seven year ache. If Mitchell Trubisky hasn’t led the Bears to a championship in his first seven years, the odds are that he never will.
Last Name |
First Name |
Draft Year |
SB Year |
NFL Years |
Championship team years |
Starr |
Bart |
1956 |
1961 |
6 |
|
Namath |
Joe |
1965 |
1968 |
4 |
|
Dawson |
Len |
1957 |
1962 |
6 |
1 |
Unitas |
John |
1955 |
1958 |
4 |
3 |
Staubach |
Roger |
1968 |
1971 |
4 |
|
Griese |
Bob |
1967 |
1972 |
6 |
|
Bradshaw |
Terry |
1970 |
1974 |
5 |
|
Stabler |
Ken |
1968 |
1976 |
9 |
|
Plunkett |
Jim |
1971 |
1980 |
10 |
2 |
Montana |
Joe |
1979 |
1981 |
3 |
|
Theisman |
Joe |
1971 |
1983 |
9 |
|
McMahon |
Jim |
1982 |
1985 |
3 |
|
Simms |
Phil |
1979 |
1986 |
7 |
|
Williams |
Doug |
1978 |
1987 |
8 |
2 |
Rypien |
Mark |
1986 |
1991 |
6 |
|
Aikman |
Troy |
1989 |
1992 |
4 |
|
Young |
Steve |
*1984 |
1994 |
10 |
8 |
Favre |
Brett |
1991 |
1996 |
6 |
5 |
Elway |
John |
1983 |
1997 |
15 |
|
Warner |
Kurt |
*1998 |
1999 |
2 |
|
Dilfer |
Trent |
1994 |
2000 |
7 |
1 |
Brady |
Tom |
2000 |
2001 |
2 |
|
Johnson |
Brad |
1994 |
2002 |
9 |
2 |
Roethlisberger |
Ben |
2004 |
2005 |
2 |
|
Manning |
Peyton |
1998 |
2006 |
9 |
4 |
Manning |
Eli |
2004 |
2007 |
4 |
|
Brees |
Drew |
2001 |
2009 |
9 |
4 |
Rodgers |
Aaron |
2005 |
2010 |
6 |
|
Flacco |
Joe |
2008 |
2012 |
5 |
|
Wilson |
Russell |
2012 |
2013 |
2 |
|
*Neither Steve Young nor Kurt Warner were drafted in the traditional NFL draft. Warner was an undrafted free agent, and Young was selected by Tampa Bay in the dispersal draft of USFL players after that league folded.