Huge advantage...

by Chad on Jan 26, 2007 5:04 PM CST Comment 15 comments

Something struck me this morning and I have been thinking about it all day.

The Tampa 2.

To me, the fact that the Colts play a Tampa 2 is an advantage to us. Forget Lovie knowing it inside and out, the key is the lack of blitzing.

We all know the trouble Rex has when he gets pressure. He did a fine job getting rid of the ball last Sunday and avoiding sacks but he didn't step up and punish the defense for taking that gamble. We know that the teams that have had the best success against the Bears were the ones that disguised blitzes and got heat on Rexy.

So? That is totally against what the Colts do. So, if they see this on film and try to blitz, we have effectively changed the way they play football. And that's exactly what I want to see. That is a huge advantage to have where for one game, a defense tries to be something they are not.

Now, if they hang back and we get good protection, good. That's where Rex has been his best. Gets time, makes good reads and delivers a good ball.

I think its an advantage either way.

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Blitzing

Colts won't blitz. They will pressure Grossman the way they pressure everyone: with their front four. Grossman will have to do a lot of three step drops and get rid of the ball quick. If he does a five or seven step drop, it's a sack. Period. This is why teams run mis-direction on the Colts. Their front four is unblockable when rushing the passer.

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by BigBlueShoe on Jan 26, 2007 11:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

25 sacks...

All season long. Please explain.

by Chad on Jan 27, 2007 1:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

they were so good

that noone passed against them. or their run d was so bad you never had to.

i'm picking the latter.

by mike b on Jan 27, 2007 1:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

They did only give up 159.3 yards a game through the air. That is pretty darn good. And it takes away a lot of opportunities for sacks.

With that said, the Bears also give up VERY few sacks, especially when the defenses do not blitz. That will be one great match-up to watch - Beard O-line vs. Colts speed rushers.

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Jan 27, 2007 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's the run D...

People didn't throw on Indy for 2 reasons...

Easier to run the ball. Why throw when you can run. As Woody Hayes always said, "When you throw the ball, three things can happen and only one of them is good."
You don't throw on the Colts cause you don't want to get into a shootout. If you try to out throw them, you'll probably lose.

But only 25 sacks? They had 415 passes attempted against them. Of which the allowed 64% (3rd worst in the nfl) to be completed. They recorded 25 sacks (3rd worst again) for an average of 1 sack for every 16 plays. For reference the Bears averaged one for every 14 plays.

by Chad on Jan 27, 2007 12:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sack rates

The Colts' 25 sacks against 415 attempted passes gives their D a sack for every 16.6 attempts, or a 6.0% sack rate.

The Bears' 40 sacks against 581 attempts works out to a sack per 14.5 attempts, or a rate of 6.9%.

Football Outsiders, however, adjusts sack rates for opponent, down and distance and gives this for the regular season: Indy ranked 25th in the league with an adjusted rate of 5.2%, the Bears ranked 21st with a rate of 5.5%.

In the postseason Indy has 7 sacks against 87 attempts over 3 games (1 per 12.4, 8.0%), the Bears, 6 versus 82 attempts in 2 games (1 per 13.7, 7.3%).

by Danimal on Jan 27, 2007 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This is what you woke up thinking this morning?

I wish I didn't relate. But I do. We must be in the Super Bowl.

I still can't believe we're in the Super Bowl.

This is awesome! If we weren't in the Super Bowl we'd be waking up thinking about how to get on with our daily routine. But we're not. Because we're in the Super Bowl.

F'ing rock on!

I wouldn't ever go out to hurt anybody deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something. - Dick Butkus

by iowaBear on Jan 27, 2007 12:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say huge advantage...

I would say push personally, because both offenses have seen the defenses in practice.

It all depends on who plays safe by being patient by going underneath the coverage, or who tries to go long and get picked off. Manning has played safe most of this season btw...

by Marked Hoosier on Jan 27, 2007 3:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Manning will take

the underneath routes all day, we'll see if Grossman has the patience (which I doubt). Hope the run game is working...

Bears fans need to get themselves ready for next Sunday, the Colts will move the ball against us, the key will be to keep them out of the endzone and force field goals and get a turnover, two or three.

Visit The Cub Reporter (mvn.com/mlb-cubs)

by thecubreporter on Jan 27, 2007 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

personally

i think you would be a fool not to blitz Grossman. It's been the most effective defense against him all season. If you don't, you'll probably have some trouble. Plus, it's not like Rex hasn't looked for Desmond Clark in a lot of games already this year. I could see him going underneath often. As a matter of fact, I wouldn't doubt that Turner isn't stressing this as part of his gameplan. Worry about the intermediate game and keep Peyton and Co. off the field.
I do agree with MarkedHoosier that this is not necessarily a "huge" advantage but it's definitely a story to follow in the game.

by cookding on Jan 29, 2007 7:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

So long as...

Just so long as going underneath means passes to Des Clark rather than Cedric Benson.

And just so long as Indy's blitz is about as ineffective as that of a certain other Tampa 2 team we're all intimately familiar with.

by Danimal on Jan 29, 2007 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's where the advantage is...

If you make a team get out of their comfort zone and try to be something they are not, I think, you'll win.

by Chad on Jan 29, 2007 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My take...

no reason to blitz Rex, he doesn't have the patience or touch to keep taking underneath routes and exploit the Tampa 2. The long ball is just not going to be their very often. On the other hand, we do seem to have the patience to run the hell out of the ball and dare I say, throw in a flea fickler cause I think it could work against these guys who have to bring the safeties up to stop the run.

Peyton though does have the patience and touch and we have to get him out of his comfort zone. I'd throw every single defensive look I could find at him...

Visit The Cub Reporter (mvn.com/mlb-cubs)

by thecubreporter on Jan 29, 2007 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs