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Margalus will love this: "Blowing Up Baseball's Most Dangerous Stat"


"If you're a...baseball fan sick of suboptimal decisions resulting in painful losses, the man to blame is a late Chicago sportswriter named Jerome Holtzman. Fifty-three years ago, in an effort to shift more recognition unto underappreciated relief pitchers, Holtzman invented the save statistic. Today, that invention is responsible for far more unintended consequences, and far more heartache, than Holtzman could have ever intended. Bloody battles are fought over the ill-begotten riches that saves bestow on those who can get them. Managers lose games for their teams by getting seduced by saves. Pitchers who fail in save situations get labeled as gutless pariahs. It needs to end now. It's time to kill the save, send it to hell, and strand it there for eternity."

The Minnesota Wild regressed; what about the Nashville Predators?


Not Penguin related, but why you should listen to us nerds.

Leach's Prolific Passers


Came across this article three clicks down a rabbit hole. Possible repost, new to me.

Berri/Hollinger/Oliver/Silver: NBA stats smackdown!

In his first few games with the New York Knicks, Carmelo Anthony has been everything everyone expected him to be. To admirers, he's putting up the numbers of a legitimate superstar: about 25 points and seven rebounds a game. Detractors see a different Melo: a ball hog who's shooting a meager 42 percent from the field. "I think what Carmelo does is, the more players you have guarding him, the more he wants to shoot. Which is the opposite of what you're supposed to do," says economist Dave Berri, author of several books on sports statistics and player evaluation. In the run-up to the NBA trading deadline, Berri told the Wall Street Journal that if the Knicks sold the farm to bring in Carmelo, they would win "roughly 29 games over a full year." After seeing which players were actually involved in the deal, he said the team might win 50.* A lot of people thought that sounded off. New York Times stats guru Nate Silver argued that, on the contrary, Melo is "the ultimate team player" because his offensive game draws defenders and allows his teammates to get more wide-open shots, boosting their field goal percentage. Carmelo's value, Silver and other analysts said, was spilling over his own stat line and into the box scores of his teammates.

Deal for Anthony May Limit Knicks’ Upside

The trade is being billed as a high-risk move. But in some ways it is just the opposite, seeming to lock the Knicks in to roughly 50 wins over the next handful of seasons — not a lot more, not a lot less — under most of the more realistic scenarios. What might the Knicks have done differently? One thing might have been to insist that the Nuggets’ center, Nene, was among the bounty of players they were receiving from Denver. A starting five of Billups, Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Nene could well be a 60-win team, even with almost no depth. No, the Nuggets might not have made the trade. But no one was forcing the Knicks to make their deal either. And the trade that they did make was extravagant from the perspective of opportunity cost.

Goalkeeping save percentage diagrams


Apropos of our continuing goalkeeping discussion from Sunday...courtesy of the incredible hard work of Graham at We Ain't Got No History. Poke around; these are great. One might be surprised.....

Does Omar Infante have the emptiest BA ever?


I got curious after looking at Infante's stat card the other day when I saw his interesting combination of insane BA and mediocre OPS, so I did a little playing around with baseball-reference.com's Play Index and searched for players in baseball history to have a similar combination. When the numbers are crunched, there have been only 26 players in baseball history to have had a .330+ BA and a sub-800 OPS with at least 200 PAs (Omar's on track for nearly 250), the most recent being Luis Polonia in 1990 for the Yankees and Angels. When the criteria is moved to a .335 BA, it's only ten times in baseball history. At Infante's current .344/.784 pace, he'd be just the second ever to have a BA so high with an OPS so low.

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