It's tough to get in the mood for basketball, what with the football team still working on sneaking into the BCS, but I've managed. The Buckeyes have played three games so far, crushing Delaware State and Samford, and nearly blowing a game to Bowling Green in between the two blowouts. Now, you shouldn't draw conclusions about a team based on competition like this, but my pappy always told me not to take my own advice, so here are a few conclusions:

1. Evan Turner is the most important player on this team.
On any given night, the guy may or may not be the best player on the team. B.J. Mullens may have more raw talent, Jon Diebler may be a better shooter, Anthony Crater a better passer, and David Lighty a better defender, but that's what makes Turner so important. He's not just a shooter, or a distributor, or a defender. He's all of that and more. When he plays well, he's all over the stat sheet, like against Samford, when he led the team in attempts, points, rebounds, assists, and steals. However, he also led the team in turnovers; that problem hasn't gone away. So long as his assist/turnover ratio is north of 1.0, that's not a major problem. But imagine if Turner could eliminate those turnovers. He rebounds well, he sees the floor well, he can score in a variety of ways - he'd be mini-LeBron.

2. David Lighty will never be better than an average offensive player, and we need to make our peace with that.
Chris mentioned this a few days ago and I think he nailed it. Lighty is a good defender, aware and athletic enough to man the middle of the zone and coordinate everything despite being just 6'5". However, against the lackluster competition the Buckeyes have faced thus far, Lighty's averaged just 1.0 PPWS, a pretty mediocre number. I give Lighty credit for usually knowing what to do, and on defense that's usually enough. If a guy knows where he should be, especially when playing zone defense, he can be a good defender. But on offense, knowing what shot to take is only half the battle, and for whatever reason Lighty just can't get his shot to consistently fall. That's not really a big problem for me. Lighty's a good enough shooter that he can't just be ignored on offense, and his defense and leadership are more important to a team that should (eventually, hopefully) find scoring from Turner, Jeremie Simmons, and Jon Diebler. Speaking of Diebler. . .

3. I'm knocking on wood here, but Diebler seems to have found his shot again.
Diebler looks much more comfortable on the court this season. He's been the team's most efficient scorer (1.4 PPWS) and second-leading scorer. Bowling Green was his best game as a Buckeye. He not only shot reasonably well from behind the arc (3 of 7), he deployed an effective shot fake, got to the basket, and took a mid-range jumper or two. He's still primarily a three-point specialist, and he can occasionally spend too much time loitering in three-point range, but the guy's making 43.8% of his threes, so how critical can you be? If he can keep that percentage north of forty, he'll have a good year.

4. Dallas Lauderdale is the most fun-to-watch Buckeye on the defensive end since. . . well, Greg Oden. But still.
Oden was entertaining to watch not just because of the blocks, but because of the shots that were never taken because he was there. A guard would beat his man and prepare for a layup, only to look up and see a forty-year-old giant staring down at him. Said guard would then meekly dribble out to three point range.

Lauderdale isn't affecting shot selection solely on his reputation yet, but he'll get there. He's averaging 5.3 blocks per game, good for second in the country. He's got great timing and a scary wingspan. That block total is going to drop off, but as he gets more comfortable and experienced, he's going to get even better on the defensive end, and that should be scary for opponents.

Here it is, the most important game of the year. Nothing would be better than a victory, nothing would be worse than a loss. It's like Christmas, but with the ever present possibility of someone taking your presents and kicking you in the shin.

The Buckeyes are playing for a share of the Big Ten Championship and a possible BCS bid, but for the next few hours, who cares? It's all about beating Michigan.

Now, some recent(-ish, in the case of the first video) history.

Courtesy of Buckeye Commentary.

Courtesy of Jeff.

Enjoy the game everyone, and GO BUCKS!

Okay, they're 3-8. Okay, none of the players on their roster have beaten Ohio State. And okay, a Michigan win Saturday would be the biggest upset in the history of the rivalry. None of that means it's impossible. Anything can happen. Just ask Toledo or Appalachian State. While this season is a failure for Michigan by just about any standard, if you check out the stats, there has to be something the Wolverines do well, right?

Right?

Well, there's punting. Zoltan Mesko is one of the best punters in the country, and the Wolverines are second in the nation in net punting at 41.37 yards. It's a good thing they have such a good punter, because they do a lot of it. Nobody has more total punting yards than the Wolverines. I guess you could say that Mesko is sort of the Graham Harrell of punting. Sure, he's better at it than just about anyone else, but considering how much practice he gets at it, he oughta be.

Other than that, it's slim pickings in terms of things the Wolverines do well. Seriously, take a look at their stats. They're pretty good at getting to the quarterback (34th nationally in sacks at 2.36/game) and bringing guys down behind the line of scrimmage (36th, 6.27 TFL/game). That indicates that the defensive line is pretty decent, in particular DE Brandon Graham, who's tied for 9th in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Other than that, they're a bit below average on a national scale, which means they're much worse than what we've come to expect from Michigan. They're 60th in rushing and 106th in passing (though the Buckeyes are 107th, so yeah). The defense is similar: 45th against the run, 89th against the pass. They're 105th in turnover margin, due in large part to an impressive ability to fumble the ball.

What I'm getting at is that there's no reason to fear this team. Graham is very good, Mesko can bail them out from time to time, and the running backs have shown flashes of competency, but if I gave you these stats and said, "Here's Indiana's stats; the Buckeyes are playing them this weekend," you'd tell me that the Buckeyes should roll, no problem. The Wolverines are a sub-par team with bad luck, and that's not a good combination.

Yet, I do worry about Saturday's game. It's probably because my formative years as a Buckeye fan came during the Cooper years, when the Buckeyes would lose again and again to Michigan teams they should have beaten. I'm still growing accustomed to the idea that the Buckeyes can consistently beat the Wolverines. I'm enjoying it, but there are still some deep-seated issues that the Tressel years are having to work through. Beyond my own psychological issues, there are two main reasons why I'm not chalking this one up as an automatic win:

1. Rich Rodriguez - We hate him, West Virginia hates him, a small but vocal (and overly excitable, if not out-and-out dumb) portion of the Michigan fanbase hates him. He can coach, though. He's showed that time and time again. How will he handle the game? Beauford at Maize n Brew doesn't buy into the concept of "getting" the rivalry, but I do. It's not so simple as "getting it = winning it," but I think the Cooper years, especially when contrasted with the Tressel years, have shown us that treating the OSU-Michigan game as just another game is a mistake. I'm not suggesting that that's what Rodriguez is doing; I mean to say that Rodriguez can't truly understand the rivalry until he's lived it. Intellectually, he can obviously grasp that it's important to everyone, but I don't think you can grok something like this without experiencing it firsthand. Will his lack of experience be the drawback a lot of Buckeye fans seem to think it will be, or will his coaching ability be more important?

2. The Michigan players - This is their last game of the season. This is their bowl game. A win provides a bit of momentum going into the offseason, while a loss is yet another defeat to their biggest rival. You think they won't be motivated? The Buckeyes will also be gunning for a win, of course, but they'll also have people telling them all week how they should just run over the Wolverines. The coaching staff has had some trouble keeping the Buckeyes focused this season; that shouldn't be a problem against the Wolverines, but if for some reason it is, the Wolverines could make up a significant chunk of the talent and experience gap on intensity and focus alone.

That said, this is probably the best I've felt about a Michigan game in recent memory. I'm still concerned, because I'm always concerned, but while my usual concern is of the visceral and immediate "Can the Buckeyes win? Will the Buckeyes win?" sort, now I have time for more philosophical concern, like "Can the Buckeyes possibly beat Michigan by enough to put out the fires of hatred that burn in my heart?"

Incidentally, I've decided that the answer to that last question is "No, no they cannot." Any win against Michigan is pretty much as good as any other win against Michigan, in that they all provide satisfaction that manages to be both immense and yet entirely insufficient to quench my thirst for victory over Michigan.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas Tech	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Texas	--
4	Florida	1
5	Oklahoma	1
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Penn State	--
8	Utah	--
9	Boise State	--
10	Ohio State	--
11	Oklahoma State	--
12	Missouri	--
13	Georgia	--
14	Ball State	--
15	Michigan State	--
16	Brigham Young	1
17	TCU	1
18	Cincinnati	3
19	Pittsburgh	3
20	LSU	--
21	Oregon State	4
22	Miami (Florida)	4
23	Oregon	3
24	Maryland	2
25	North Carolina	7

Dropped Out: Florida State (#19), Tulsa (#23), South Carolina (#24).

Nothing too exciting going on here. I gave in a little bit to the "Hey, Florida's crushing everyone" school of thought, but I'm trying my hardest to not forget about the fact that they loss to Ole Freakin' Miss. That's the only movement in the top 15, and let's be honest, everything else is such a crapshoot that it doesn't really matter. If you have some suggestions, let me hear them in the next four hours, I'll take one last look at things before work.

We'll have some thoughts on the Illinois game up here soon enough, but I just wanted to remind everyone that it's now Michigan week. The game is on, though for a while there, it was looking like the Michigan football team wouldn't be able to make it to Columbus. Why? They couldn't get past Toledo.

*ba dum ching*

First, click play for a microcosm of the Ohio State run game:

The team predictably runs on first down. Beanie runs into two o-linemen "run blocking" on the wrong side of the line of scrimmage. The only help he receives from the line is a shove forward by Alex Boone. Beanie breaks free and scores anyway, delivering a little Infinite Justice along the way.

I believe that a great running back can make a mediocre offensive line look good, but that's not what's happening here. This is like putting a Ferrari in a showroom full of AMC Pacers. This is something extraordinary looking even more so because of what surrounds it. You gotta admire the effort Beanie shows, and the results he gets even when teams load up to stop the run and the offensive line gets no push.

The bullet points!

• While we're YouTubing, this is why Terrelle Pryor is starting for the Buckeyes:
  I don't know who you are, MB721, but you are my hero.
  
  Jim Cordle whiffs on a block (or perhaps more accurately, picks the wrong guy to block), and a d-lineman gets into the backfield virtually untouched. Boeckman probably would have been hit from behind. Pryor, however, is fast enough to escape and make a play. Ex-players might see it as a problem, but the change at quarterback was less an indictment of Boeckman and more an indictment of the offensive line. When guys are able to get into the backfield at will, having a quarterback who can get out of the pocket quickly is almost a necessity.
• I can't decide if I think Tressel should let Pryor throw more or not. On the one hand, it's tough to argue with Saturday's results: 9 of 14 for 197 yards and 3 TDs. Pryor did enough to get an easy win and didn't make many mistakes. On the other hand, if he was that good with just 14 attempts, why not give him 25? Why not throw more on first down? It certainly seems to make more sense than running into eight-man fronts, the current hallmark of the offensive gameplan. I'm sure Tressel's response to that would be that he's trying to minimize the opportunity for Pryor to make mistakes, which makes some sense, especially given how hard Pryor took his two mistakes against Penn State. But you can't take a talent like Pryor and put him into an offensive gameplan that looks to minimize risk first and foremost. You have to accept that his unwillingness to give up on plays and his confidence in his athletic ability will occasionally result in mistakes, because those are precisely the traits that make him special. Turn him loose, accept the mistakes, see what happens. It should open things up for the running game, and make the entire offense much more dangerous.
• A thought: I'm not sure, but I assume the Buckeyes had the second-team offensive line in at the end of the game. And sure, they were probably going up against Northwestern's second-teamers. But those guys made Mo Wells look good and sprang Boom Herron for a touchdown that brought a frown to Jim Tressel's face (more on that in a bit). Maybe they deserve a bit more playing time? The starters haven't been inspiring, let's see what the backups can do in more meaningful minutes.
• Another solid game for the defense. The first couple drives were cause for concern, what with Mike "Insert Eastern-European Literature Joke Here" Kafka having success running the ball despite everyone in the Western Hemisphere realizing he was going to run the ball. The defense settle down and adjusted though, and Kafka was pretty well shut down after that. Sure, Kafka's success will make us all that much more worried about Juice Williams next week, but be honest: you already expected Juice to turn in his best game of the season, didn't you?
  
  But back to the defense. The line has really come around. They're doing a much better job of getting pressure on the quarterback. Nathan Williams is playing the role of "Surprisingly Good Freshman Defensive End," previously played by Cam Heyward. Williams isn't the most polished player, but the dude never stops working. He and Thaddeus Gibson bring a ton of energy to the d-line, and it seems to be rubbing off on everyone else on the d-line. Combine that with the continued quality play of the back seven, and this defense is formidable again. We'll have to see how they handle Illinois, the conference leader in total offense.
• Do you think Tressel was running up the score at the end, as Andre Ware claimed? I don't think it was intentional, though the fake punt wasn't the classiest move out there. A few times over the years, I've gotten the feeling that the analytical coaching part of Tressel's brain has taken control at unnecessary times, and I think that's what happened with the fake. He saw the wind and the field position and figured a punt wouldn't be worth much, so why not go for it? Worst case, you cost yourself ten or twenty yards that you would have gained on the punt, but you might get a first down, and you avoid big play potential on the punt return. The fake is the smart call there, but a smart call wasn't necessary. The punt would have been the polite, classier thing to do, and I'd expect Tressel to realize that, but like I said, occasionally he gets in analytical coach mode, and nothing crosses his mind but calling the best play he can come up with for the situation.
  
  As for Herron's touchdown run, I don't think the team has anything to apologize for there. That wasn't the starters out slinging the ball all over the field, it was the backups running the ball between the tackles. Sure, there's nothing wrong with taking a knee there, but what's so bad about getting the backups some real plays during a game? I mean, come on: we're talking dive plays by the second-team offense. What part of that says "running up the score" to you? Is it the extremely basic running play, or the benchwarmers running it? I think Tressel's expression after the touchdown said it all: he was just trying to get the second team a few semi-meaningful snaps, and they just performed a bit too well.
• Preliminary thoughts about the Illinois game: they do a good job of pressuring the quarterback, and that worries me, but their run defense is sub-par, which is good news. Juice Williams hasn't quite taken the step forward that he was expected to this season, which means he will be great against the Buckeyes. Rejus Benn versus Malcolm Jenkins is an NFL-caliber matchup, and should be fun to watch.

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Texas Tech	1
2	Alabama	1
3	Texas	1
4	Oklahoma	2
5	Florida	2
6	Southern Cal	2
7	Penn State	6
8	Utah	2
9	Boise State	--
10	Ohio State	2
11	Oklahoma State	6
12	Missouri	1
13	Georgia	1
14	Ball State	1
15	Michigan State	1
16	TCU	5
17	Brigham Young	1
18	North Carolina	1
19	Florida State	7
20	LSU	3
21	Cincinnati	5
22	Pittsburgh	2
23	Tulsa	3
24	South Carolina	2
25	Oregon State	1

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#20), Georgia Tech (#21), Maryland (#22), California (#23), Northwestern (#25).

No explanations right now, but as usual, let me know what you'd do differently. I think I'll move Oklahoma State up above the Buckeyes; I wanted them back in the top ten, but I don't think they deserve it more than the other OSU.

Work's finally letting up for me, so I should be pack to my semi-regular posting schedule next week. In lieu of my own preview, I offer 11W's here. But here's a quick breakdown:

The Buckeyes have more talent than Northwestern: Good.
The Buckeyes have been inconsistent: Bad.
Beanie is as healthy as he's been since YSU, while Northwestern has a bunch of injuries: Good.
It's going to be cold, rainy/snowy, windy, and all-around miserable: Bad.

So, yeah. Because of the weather, I don't expect the Buckeyes to air it out. But they have Beanie, so that's not a big deal. Northwestern's top two running backs are out, so I'd think the wind would affect their offense more than ours. However, crappy weather usually minimizes athletic advantages, so we'll see what happens. Hopefully the offensive line puts together a good game and Beanie rolls to a couple hundred yards.

Regardless, it's another chance to watch the Buckeyes, after a bye week that seemed to take forever. Enjoy the game, and Go Bucks!

From the Plain Dealer:

Ohio State junior receiver Ray Small has been suspended from the team indefinitely and Small's father, Ken, believes the suspension is another instance of coach Jim Tressel unfairly holding his son back.

"We see it as a family that they are intentionally blowing his whole career," Ken Small said Wednesday night. "Whatever it is, it's personal."

From what I've heard (and what is mentioned in the article, and what Ken Small admits), if Ray blowing off class and meetings is personal, then yeah, it's personal. Of course, I could have heard wrong and Tressel may have something against Small. Stranger things have happened, though not many.

Regardless, the suspension sucks for the team, but if it results in a situation that allows Small to be successful, then it's probably for the best.

From a team standpoint, if there had to be a suspension, receiver was not the worst place for it. While Small was, at times, the most reliable receiver the Buckeyes had (and at times the most unreliable, but you take the good with the bad), there is plenty of talent behind him on the depth chart. This should get Dane Sanzenbacher, DeVier Posey, and Lamaar Thomas on the field more on offense.

On special teams, this should hopefully make punt returns less dramatic. Small is one of the best return men in the conference, but he has a tendency to turn easy catches into difficult ones. I expect Tressel will replace him with Brian Hartline on punt returns, which would be okay. Hartline should be a solid, reliable returner who hopefully won't make any diving catches inside the ten on punts. However, I'd like to see Lamaar Thomas get some time. The guy has Ted Ginn-level speed and moves, and the more return opportunities he gets, the better it is for the team.

Sorry about the lack of posts; things are getting kind of busy at work. At least it came along during the bye week. Anyway, BlogPoll:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Penn State	1
2	Texas Tech	7
3	Alabama	--
4	Texas	3
5	Oklahoma State	2
6	Oklahoma	2
7	Florida	1
8	Southern Cal	3
9	Boise State	2
10	Utah	--
11	TCU	3
12	Ohio State	1
13	Missouri	1
14	Georgia	6
15	Ball State	1
16	Michigan State	2
17	LSU	2
18	Brigham Young	2
19	North Carolina	2
20	West Virginia	5
21	Georgia Tech	5
22	Maryland	4
23	California	3
24	Pittsburgh	2
25	Northwestern	1

Dropped Out: Minnesota (#15), Tulsa (#17), Florida State (#22), Connecticut (#23), Oregon (#24).