No more waiting, no more wondering. It's football time and the Cardinals kick off the season against familiar foe. As always............ GO CARDINALS!!!

The Arizona Cardinals sent Al Johnson to the injured reserve, ending his season and thrusting Lyle Sendlein in the starting center job for good. The Cardinals also moved Pat Ross from the practice squad to the active roster and cut Oliver Celestin. That's some what of a surprising me because it leaves the team with only 52 players on the roster. They also cut Anthony Oakley from the practice squad meaning that there are two spots avaliabe there. Next week should be a busy week as they scramble to fill both units. Veterans, like Celestin, can be signed next week with little risk because they're contracts aren't guaranteed after week one.

The Cardinals released their team captains for the 2008 season today and they're quite a bit different from last season. The 2007 captains were Anquan Boldin, Adrian Wilson, Gerald Hayes, Neil Rackers and Aaron Francisco. Well the only repeat player will be Aaron Francisco as a special teams captain. Joining him will be offensive captains Kurt Warner and Reggie Wells, defensive captain Karlos Dansby and one more special teams captain Sean Morey. Here's what Whiz had to say about the players selections:

"The team voted, it's how they feel," Whisenhunt said. "It's interesting to see their perception of it. But I am hoping we have a number of veteran leaders on this team that weren't necessarily captains and I expect those guys to give their leadership ability."

We've looked at the key match-ups this weekend and how our Arizona Cardinals have fared against the Niners in the past, and in one last ditch effort to preview the first game of the season, here are my keys to coming home with a 'W'.

Shut Down Frank Gore: Well to be more realistic, contain Frank Gore. Gore has only had one truly great game against the Cardinals, which happened to be the last time that they played (214 total yards). Outside of that game though the Cardinals have done a decent job of at least containing him considering he hasn't rushed for over 
90 yards in any other game and he's only topped 150 total yards once. One thing that he has done against the Cardinals though is score points (7 TDs in four starts) and with an unproven quarterback, the 49ers are likely to depend on Gore even more than normal this Sunday. Someone recently mentioned in the comments that holding him under 150 yards would be acceptable and given that he'll likely be the focal point on the offense, that's probably a reasonable estimate. In an effort to give a number that would guarantee a Cardinal win, I'd say that holding Gore to anything under 125 total yards would be enough to shut down the 49ers' offense.

Establish the Run: Now before anyone points this out as being generic, let me narrow the scope a bit. In both losses to the Niners last season the Cardinals had the ball with the lead in the 4th quarter. In the first game, their fourth quarter drive amounted to one pass for a first down and four Edgerrin James runs for three yards. That drive would last one minute and 31 seconds and the Niners would get the ball and score to win the game. In the second game last season, the Cards got the ball with a late lead and they didn't even attempt to run the ball and five plays and one minute later they handed the ball back to the Niners who would score on the next drive and win the game in overtime. Anyone notice a pattern? If the Cardinals are able to run the ball in the fourth quarter, they will win this game and with Hightower running with authority and giving Edge a breather, there's no excuse for not being able to move the ball on the ground.

No Special Teams Miscues: This encompasses several aspects of the game but I will say that the Cardinals special teams isn't going to win any awards this season.  They do need though to at the very least, not get in the way. With an opponent like the Niners, who will likely to 'offensively-challenged,' the Cardinals need to avoid handing them a short field by shanking a punt or allowing a big return. I do believe that the Cardinals are the better team but if we give the Niners a short field, or easy points off of a return this could be another disappointing loss. They also can not afford to leave points on the field via missed field goals, (cough) Neil Rackers.

Thoughts? Agree/Disagree? What are your keys?

Before we get into hardcore football season, I'll take one last opportunity to provide a final season preview for the Arizona Cardinals. Since I'll be using tons of stats from Football Outsiders throughout the season, I jumped at the opportunity to interview their President, Aaron Schatz. If you're unfamiliar with the fine work that Football Outsiders puts out there then I encourage you to check it out their website throughout the beginning of the season. Schatz is also the lead author of their annual Pro Football Prospectus, which is the source for any NFL stat including great situational stats. As you might expect, my questions and Aaron's answers were pretty lengthly so the entire Q&A session is after the jump, but here's how we got it started:

CG - First of all, I'm sure some of us here at Revenge of the Birds are unfamiliar with the work you guys do at Football Oustiders.com and the content of Pro Football Prospectus. I've been a fan of Football Outsiders since stumbling across the site last season and did my best to understand DVOA and DPAR, but I'm sure there's something that I missed. Can you give us a quick overview of the process that FO goes through to produce your various rankings and what kind of content can be found in PFP?

Aaron Schatz - First of all, I should point out that we've changed our individual
stats from DPAR to DYAR. They are now stated in terms of yards, which
we think will make them easier for fans to understand.

Football Outsiders was created to apply advanced statistical analysis
to pro football, although we've expanded since then, with columns that
are more scouting-based, and college football material. The stats we
do come in two varieties:

1) Stats based on the standard play-by-play, the Bill James-style
stuff. The basic idea is to break through the context of football
stats, and to look at each play in terms of success based on that
specific situation -- third-and-2 being very different from
second-and-15. DVOA is the main rating, which gives each play a
success rating and then adjusts it based on situation and opponent. We
also do things like analyze run tackles separately from pass tackles,
and filtering out the luck involved in fumble recovery.

2) Stats that try to fill the holes in the standard play-by-play,
collected by our armada of volunteer game charters. This is the
material like tracking formations, play-action, quarterback hurries,
defensive coverage, and so forth.

Continue reading this post »

• The biggest concern heading into this Sunday for the Arizona Cardinals has to be the injury situation, especially at the nose. Gabe Watson is already out, although he did practice for the first time this offseason, yesterday (on a limited basis). Alan Branch hasn't practiced this week at all and his status for the game isn't looking good. If he can't go on Sunday, Bryan Robinson will start and Kenny Iwebema will be the backup. That's not a great combination at nose tackle and if that's the case, I'd expect to see more four-man fronts than normal this week. Ben Patrick and Jerame Tuman are both listed on the injury report and both have been limited in practice recently. They should still play in the game but Pope will likely be the focal point of the tight end passing game.
  
• Kurt Warner's been working on ball security in an effort to cut down on his fumbling problem. Turnovers has always been a problem for the prolific veteran and while wearing gloves have helped cut down on fumbles, the coaching staff would like him to continue to improve on his fumbles and cut down on interceptions. Say what you want about the 37 year old vet but if he's putting up the same numbers without turning the ball over as much, it's a scary proposition for opposing teams. The coaching staff is also working with Darnell Dockett in a effort cut down on the useless penalties that he tends to collect. He's acknowledged that he needs to play 'smarter' but he also plays with a lot of aggression and emotion so it's a delicate balance.
• The Cardinals defense is facing some unfamiliar faces considering they're playing such a familiar opponent. No I'm not talking about Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson or Mike Martz, all of whom the Cardinals are very familiar with, but starting quarterback JT O'Sullivan is a different story. He's playing for his eighth team in just six seasons but he's in the same offense for the second consecutive season and will be making the first start of his NFL career. The Cardinals have seen Mike Martz turn no-name quarterbacks into NFL stars before and they'll be the first test for 29 year old JT O'Sullivan.
  
• Last but certainly not least, the Cardinals seem anxious to take the field and get the bitter taste of last season out of their mouth. Considering that they finished the season 8-8 but lost twice to the 5-11 Niners, who can blame them? With a new season and expectations at an all-time high, they need to get out of the gates quickly and they should have every opportunity against a team with a first time starter and a new offensive system. It's also worth remembering that these teams have swept each other each of the past four seasons so a win this Sunday could also be an indication of another win down the road.

I meant to get this up before the first game started but if you're anything like me, it doesn't really feel like football season until the Cardinals take the field. I also live by the adage of "it's better late than never" so we'll go ahead get this kicked off. With only one game in the books, here's my five bold predictions that you can take to the bank. My division by division predictions and playoff predictions are after the jump.

Also if you haven't submitted your game picks for week 1, click here, get your picks in and Hawk is going to keep tabs on the standings for us.

1. Brett Favre's 2008 stats will look much more like his 2005 numbers (20 TDs, 29 INTs) than his 2007 numbers (28 TDs, 15 INTs).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson will miss at least two games with injuries for the first time in his career and the tremendous workload of the past seven years will decrease his effectiveness even when healthy.

3. Brady Quinn will start at least four games in Cleveland this year and Romeo Crennel will name him the 2009 starter shortly after the final game.

4. Jared Allen will lead the league in sacks by at least five full sacks. No team can run on that defensive front meaning they'll all have to drop back to pass way too many times.

5. One year after leading the league in completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt and QB rating, Tom Brady will not lead the league in any statistical category in 2008.

Continue reading this post »

Now that we've looked at eight key match-ups (Part I and II), I figured we could take a look at how our very own Arizona Cardinals perform against the Niners. Being that these two teams play twice a year, most of the players who have been with the Cardinals for any length of time have built up some historical stats against our bay city rivals. So here's how our beloved Cardinals have done:

Kurt Warner: Obviously some of Warner's stats will come of his games in St. Louis but we'll look his stats overall and then only the years in the desert. Overall Warner has played 10 games against the Niners and four of those have come with the Cardinals. Those four games amounted to a 3-1 record against them and he's averaged over 300 yards per game. As you might expect, Warner's numbers were better in St. Louis (although not by much at all) but his stats against the Niners are better than his career numbers overall.

Edgerrin James: Edge has only played the 49ers five times in this nine year career and four of those games (2-2 record) have come during his two seasons in Arizona. His stats aren't overly impressive but they're workmanlike, as you'd expect from James. He's averaged 87 yards a game during his two seasons with Arizona and his biggest yardage game was late in 2006 when he rushed 29 times for 105 yards. He's yet to have a 'breakout' game against San Francisco but with a more experienced offensive line and new sidekick, this could be the game that is happens.

Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz has played eight games against the Niners and as you might expect, he's been an absolute monster. He's averaged 96.8 yards per game (versus 75.7 for his entire career) despite have a down game in week one last year (3 rec for 20 yds). His eight games have amounted to four 100 yard games, five games with five or more receptions and six games with at least 14.5 yards per reception. 

Anquan Boldin: Boldin's been equally impressive in his nine games against the Niners with over 84 yards per game. San Fran seems to have found a way to contain him in the past two seasons though considering that he's only topped 70 yards once. During a four game stretch between 2003 and 2005, he averaged 9.25 receptions and 126 yards per games including over 100 yards in each game. With Kurt at the helm and considering that he's completely healthy and 'money-motivated' this year, he could get back to those numbers from 2003-2005 this Sunday.

Other Offensive Specialists: There are several other offensive skill position players who have very little stats against the Niners. Leonard Pope has totaled seven receptions for 74 yards in four games. Ben Patrick has played only one game against his Niners and he finished with two receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown. Steve Breaston has played two games against them but hasn't recorded a reception. He did average 21.6 yards per return on 10 kickoff returns and 4.1 yards per return on 7 punt returns.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

It may not mean much but if the past is any indication of what to expect this Sunday, it looks like the passing game should be able to put some points on the board and Edge will get plenty of work but will have to fight for every yard. Thoughts? Is it worth looking at the past or should we focus on the present?

After getting the ball rolling with four key match-ups yesterday, Fooch, at Niners Nation, and myself sit down and look at the final four match-ups facing the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. These were a bit tougher for me but let me know what you think:

Matchup #5: 49ers Defensive front 7 vs. Cardinals OL (rushing)

Fooch: Advantage: 49ers - While the Cardinals performed well in rushing against the 49ers, the 49ers front 7 has been dramatically improved.  The addition of Justin Smith at OLB and defensive end gives the team a nasty presence now that Bryant Young is retired.  Manny Lawson played in the opener, but was out for the second SF-AZ matchup and he is an integral part of their run defense.  Patrick Willis has a full year under his belt and should only improve.  The one drawback is that Aubrayo Franklin is consistently getting pushed around at the nose tackle position, making it more difficult for the linebackers to make plays.  However, the 49ers will be able to rotate enough guys into the defensive line to cover for that deficiency.  While Michael Lewis plays strong safety, he is excellent in the running game and provides some second level support to the linebackers if they miss a tackle.

CG: Advantage: Cardinals - The Cardinals actually ran the ball decently against the Niners last year totaling 257 yards on 62 carries last year just over 4.1 yards per carry, which is better than they did against the rest of the league. They've also worked tirelessly this offseason to improve the running game and are even going to incorporate some zone blocking schemes to better suit Edgerrin James' running style. The Niners run defense took some shots last year and ended up ranking 22nd in the league but they only allowed 3.8 yards per attempt. With the Niners front seven being fresh and the Cardinals offensive line looking solid so far, I'd really like to call this match-up a 'push,' but I won't take the easy way out. I'll give the Cardinals a slight edge with the one-two punch of James and Hightower.

Match-up #6: Cardinals defensive front 7 vs. 49ers OL (rushing)

Fooch: Advantage: 49ers - I will be honest and admit I don't know a whole heck of a lot about the Cardinals.  The injuries to the defensive line are certainly not something you want when you're facing a running back like Frank Gore.  Gore has slimmed down as he expects to carry a Marshall Faulk type of rushing/receiving role.  The 49ers offensive line was a weakness for much of last year, but Gore was still able to surpass 1,100 rushing yards.  The line has gotten younger and healthier and while Gore may not reach his 2007 goal of 2,000 yards, he will be the engine of this offense.  I'd expect the 2007 offensive line issues to be an anomaly and the 2006 excellence to return.

CG: Advantage: 49ers - The Cardinals defense might have had some faults in 2007 but the front seven was solid against the run. They gave up less than 100 yards per game and finished 9th in league in run defense, but they do have some question marks heading into Sunday. The biggest question mark is at the biggest position in a 3-4 defense, nose tackle. Gabe Watson, last years starter, has already been ruled out for the game and primary backup Alan Branch is questionable at best right now. He hasn't practiced since injuring his ankle in the final preseason game and he'll have to get healthier if he wants to suit up against the Niners. That leaves the nose tackle position to veteran Bryan Robinson, who was signed in the offseason to backup the nose and defensive end positions. He's a consummate professional but he's not a true nose tackle and if he has to play the entire game, he could get pushed around pretty badly by the fourth quarter. If he's the only nose tackle that's available, I'd expect them to go with more four man fronts to try and give him some help. I'd love to take the Cardinals here but there are too many question marks at this point to vote against Frank Gore, who's averaged 4.5 yards per carry against the Cardinals throughout his career.

The final two match-ups after the jump.....

Continue reading this post »