Last weekend we looked at the third of our trio of ex-head coaches. This is the final edition of this series, in which we examined the first drafts of our ex-head coaches when they ascended to the head coaching position of their previous team. But, in case it wasn't clear before (and I understand if it wasn't), follow me past the jump for a primer on what we're doing here and what the results are.
First off, the goal of this little exercise is to examine the first drafts of the ex-head coaches after their first year of assuming the head coach mantle. Then, we examined the improvements made statistically by the next year's squad. In this installment, we're going to take a look at the three teams' improvements together, and see what those teams did on average when they improved. For fun, we're going to apply it to the 2010 Bears and see what would happen in 2011 if that average holds.
Second, I also wanted to see how the coaches drafted after assessing their team in the first year.
A couple disclaimers before we begin. In no way is this a predictive measure. This holds no predictive value, and is done merely as an exercise to see how our college of coaches assess and improve their team after the first year under the helm. I chose the first draft because for both Martz and Tice this is their first year in the Bears' system, and this is Marinelli's first year in the coordinator role. Also, I did not do one of these for Lovie because we generally know what we get from Angelo and Lovie, although if requested, I can put together a Lovie Year 1 and add it in here.
But enough babbling. Let's take a look at the results. All stats are with respect to the prior year, so there won't be any detailed statistics, merely a plus/minus and a percentage, and all links take you back to the original piece.
Offense: +14 points (+2.6%), +663 total yards (+10.3%), -5 Passing TDs, +879 Passing Yards (+20.2%), -216 Rushing Yards (-10.5%), +13 Rushing TDs, +8 INTs
Defense: +229 points allowed (+94.6%), +796 total yards (+16.9%), +13 Passing TDs, +288 Passing Yards (+8.2%), -6 INTs, +508 rushing yards (+42.7%), +14 Rushing TDs
Offense: +41 points (+13%), +217 total yards (+4.3%), -2 Passing TDs, +58 Passing Yards (+1.5%), +159 Rushing Yards (+14.1%), +4 Rushing TDs, +/- 0 INTs
Defense: +46 points allowed (+11.6%), +512 total yards (+9.3%), +10 Passing TDs, +611 Passing Yards (+17.4%), -99 Rushing Yards (-4.9%), +1 Rushing TD, +5 INTs
Offense: +100 points (+34.5%), +1007 total yards (+19.4%), +109 Passing Yards (+3.0%), -4 Passing TDs, +/- 0 INTs, +898 Rushing Yards (+55.8%), +16 Rushing TDs
Defense: +52 points (+13.3%), +103 total yards (+1.8%), +736 Passing Yards (+21.9%), +17 TDs, +8 INTs, -633 Rushing Yards (-27.5%), -6 Rushing TDs
Now that we've got the net changes between the two years for each team, let's go on to the combined adjustment.
Offense: +51.7 points, +629 total yards, -3.7 Passing TDs, +348.7 Passing Yards, +280.3 Rushing Yards, +11 Rushing TDs, +2.7 INTs
Defense: +109 points allowed, +470.3 total yards allowed, +13.3 Passing TDs, +545 passing yards allowed, -74.7 rushing yards allowed, +3 Rushing TDs, +2.3 INTs
There are a few generalities to note before we apply this to Chicago, which is why this is in no way a predictive measure, merely fun to do. First, each team improved primarily on offense, especially on the rushing side of the offense. Consequently, the area that suffers is passing in the red zone.
Second, however, is to note that in two of the three cases (coincidentally, Martz's Rams and Marinelli's Martz-influenced Lions), the first round pick was not a lineman - rather, RB Trung Canidate and WR Calvin Johnson, respectively. Tice's draft involved a first round tackle. In fact, at some point in the draft, each team picked a lineman, though sack totals didn't necessarily improve for Warner and Kitna had been sacked 63 times in 2006, so it'd be hard to not improve on that.
Third, the offensive production is tangible, but so is a general worsening of defense. The Martz Rams fell off the cliff after being one of the prior year's top defenses, and the Lions and Vikings didn't have very good defenses to begin with, so in a very small sample size, this is heavily influenced.
Now that the general notes are out of the way, let's apply the adjustment to the Bears' 2010 season.
2010 Offense: 334 Points, 4631 Total Yards, 3015 Passing Yards, 23 Passing TDs, 21 INTs, 1616 Rushing Yards, 10 TDs
2010 Defense: 286 Points Allowed, 5029 Total Yards, 3588 Passing Yards, 14 Passing TDs, 21 INTs, 1441 Rushing Yards, 14 TDs
2011 Adjusted Offense: 386 Points (Would be 11th in 2010), 5260 Total Yards (21st), 3364 Passing Yards (17th), 20 Passing TDs (T-23), 24 INTs (3rd), 1896 Rushing Yards (11th), 21 TDs (Would lead the league)
2011 Adjusted Defense: 395 Points Allowed (T-24), 5499 Total Yards (22nd), 4133 Passing Yards (29th), 27 Passing TDs (26th), 23 INTs (3rd), 1366 Rushing Yards (2nd), 17 TDs (26th)
I agree that this is not very likely, but statistical abuse is fun, isn't it?
I don't think, given the line and linebacking corps of the defense, that the defense will fall off like that, and I doubt we'll see 21 rushing TDs.
How about it, Bears fans? Would you take these numbers for next year if the true averages hold (doubtable as it is)? Will the ex-head coaches have this strong an impact, or will we see what we've always seen from Lovie and Angelo... or somewhere in between? Sound off!