In part one of this post, I looked at some realistic and dream draft scenarios for the Bears. A couple that I think are closer to reality, one that was picks I'd like to see and one that was kind of out there. Anyway, none of us know for sure. I don't guarantee my predictions and I doubt they will hold up after this weekend. Anyway, now I am going to look over some possibilities that the Bears could explore in a trade down scenario. Let's see what you all think about these.For this post I will be referencing this chart from Walter Football about the points value for draft picks. It's going to be easier to pick one single chart to use than to argue about what a pick is worth.
So first off, here is the value of the Bears' draft picks:
19th - 875 points
50th - 400 points
79th - 195 points
111th - 72 points
150th - 31.4
184th - 17.8
220th - 3.4
So for the purpose of this post and for eases sake I am going to only try to deal with this years Bears picks. It's too complicated to throw in a '13 or '14 draft pick when we don't know where that pick will be or it's value.
So the Bears hold the 19th pick in round one, let's say that Emery really wants Andre Branch, as bad as some seem to think he does (see Part One). Most would say Branch is a reach at 19. Coples is off the board, so maybe Emery decides he wants to drop back and pick up an extra pick.
Let's say that the Browns want to jump up because Ryan Tannehill has dropped and they think someone will jump in front of them at 22 for him. So the Bears and Browns want to swap first rounders, this would mean they swap first rounders and the Browns would need to throw in their first 4th round pick (100th overall) 780 + 100 = 880 = 19th Pick = 875 points. If the Browns thought they were getting hosed with the extra 25 points the Bears could throw in the 184th pick which would make the transaction = 862.2.
Or, the Bears convince the Browns to swap first and second rounds (Browns number 22 and number 37 = 1310 points, Bears' first two picks = 1275) To make up the different the Bears would have to throw in their 150th pick to get to 1306.4 points.
Now with number 22 and 37, the Bears could take maybe Stephen Hill (in our dreams) and Andre Branch. Maybe number 22 is still too early for Hill.
So let's say the Bears wanted Stephen Hill or a DE like Nick Perry or Branch, who could realistically get into the mid-20s. Maybe Emery calls the old dancing partner in Denver. The 25th pick is worth 720. The difference to make up in points between 19 and 25 is 155 points. Conveniently, the Broncos' third round pick is worth EXACTLY 155 points. So the Bears could get the 25th pick and 87th pick for number 19 and give up nothing else.
With good value in round three likely to be had at positions like CB, WR and DE the extra third rounder could be a very good thing to have.
Now, maybe the Bears want to stand pat in round one. They make their 19th pick, but like last year, a guy they had their eye on at number 50 is suddenly in danger of being taken. Like last year when the Bears jumped up in round two to grab Stephen Paea because their was little run on DTs, maybe this happens again. So the Bears want to jump up in round two, with an eye on a guy like Chandler Jones, Vinny Curry or even Mohammad Sanu or Rueben Randle.
The 50th pick is worth 400 points, so they want to jump up merely 10 places to 40, which is worth 500 points. The Bears would need to throw in their 4th and 5th round pick for Carolina's 40th overall pick. Maybe the Bears get Carolina to throw in their seventh round pick, 216th overall, to make the math closer: 500 - 400 = 100. 72 + 31.4 = 106.4, Carolina's 216th pick is worth 5 points, that whole transaction would then = 101.4 points to make up 100 points.
Or to swap with the Colts for their 34th pick the Bears would need to make up 160 points (34th = 560 points) so then 560-400 = 160. For that the Bears could give up their third rounder, 79 (worth 195) and get the Colts to throw in their 136th pick (round 5, pick 1 worth 38) making the transaction 560 - 400 - 195 + 38 = a 3 point net for the Bears.
Well that was exhaustive, so I turn it to you: use the chart I linked to and the NFL Draft Tracker to do some trading of your own. Who would you want the Bears to trade back (or up) for?