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Forte Saying The Right Things; Still Won't Get Deal That He Wants

Matt Forte plays as himself--no word on salary he gave himself. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images for EA Sports)
Matt Forte plays as himself--no word on salary he gave himself. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images for EA Sports)
Getty Images for EA Sports

You may have seen it in the Den this morning, but Matt Forte recently talked to CSNChicago about his contract situation.

Forte told Pat Boyle that he really wants to be out there, and that he wants to be a Bear. While these are the things you want to hear as a Bear fan, there's another quote that jumps out to me more.

"I just want to get market value," Forte said, citing the deals LeSean McCoy signed with the Philadelphia Eagles and Arian Foster did with the Houston Texans, both of which guaranteed the players slightly more than $20 million over five and four years, respectively.

There's a term in there that just simply doesn't apply to his situation. Confused? See me after the jump.

Market Value is the price that he would be able to get in a completely restriction free open-market. He doesn't have that. He has a specialized market within a specialized market. It reads as follows:

There is one unit of supply produced by one vendor (Forte)
There is one unit of demand by the Chicago Bears. (No other teams are allowed to demand his services)
There is an assumed price ceiling of $7.7 mil guaranteed dollars for 2012, and an unknown price ceiling for other guaranteed years (Assumed to be 8-10 mil)

Market value, for Matt Forte, simply isn't part of his process right now. His current options are to sell at the price they're willing to pay outright, or to at least come down from his asking price. Perhaps then the Bears would be willing to work with him to create fair value.

Fair value is a reasonable estimate of costs taking into account subjective and objective factors. Objective factors in this case would include, indeed, the market value, replacement costs, actual utility, supply and demand, among others. Subjective factors would include chances for risk, return on capital, and perceived utility. Let's take a look at some of those subjective factors.

  • Chances for risk - Clearly, in this situation, the chances for risk are very high. The team is looking at wanting to minimize their cost in the case of severe injury that prohibits Forte from performing, and Forte is trying to look to maximize that value in case of later income lost due to injury.
  • Perceived utility - This relates to each party's perceptions of the costs and benefits of the deal.

The perceived utility is where the hang-up seems to be. Forte is basing his value on continuing to be "The Guy." The Bears seem to have begun valuing him at less than that, with what they have perceived to be a decrease in need.

We'll see what happens when the July 16th deadline for signing comes, but it's this writer's opinion that we'll be seeing Matt Forte play under the franchise tag in 2012. What do you think?