Fantasy Analysis: NFL Update - Week 4

As we discussed on Wednesday, there are some nice matchups for some weaker options if you are in a bye week or injury jam already...some random thoughts, than some sleepers for the week and injury updates.

CJ Spiller, regardless of injury status, is an odd problem set for his owners...If you believe he is hurt enough to be limited, and Jackson is healthy enough to start taking touches, now is the time to sell...If you think he is too good to get rid of and that Jackson, 31 and coming off back to back injury seasons, can't take the job back, then keep him. I think Spiller is too good to sit.

Andre Brown, on the other hand, seems to be headed to "at best" a time share unless Bradshaw gets hurt again (a real possibility). If Brown's last two weeks didn't earn him the "starter" title, it won't be his this year if Bradshaw is healthy. Sell him, preferably to a Bradshaw owner, while his value is higher.

Chris Johnson is worth buying...if you can get him for a #2/3 player at WR, RB, TE, or a low #1/high #2 QB or D/ST. His football won't get much better this week, but as a flex play the rest of the season he is bound to hit some soon, and his value has NEVER been lower.

Matt Schaub is going to disappoint owners again this year...not for lack of talent or options, but because Houston is so darn good at running behind Foster & Tate and that defense is so mean, they just don't need him to be a 5000 yard passer, and he won't likely have another 4 TD game this season...If you can flip him for a #1 at another position, I would.

It's a very real possibility that Andrew Luck & RGIII get the stats to finish top 10 at QB in fantasy, while neither likely makes the playoffs, and its also extremely likely that 3 of these 6 are NOT top 10 QBs this year - Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Tony Romo, Cam Newton. Tough, tough choice to say which is which, but I am losing faith in Vick, Newton, and Romo fastest.

It's also a very real possibility that Matt Forte and Bush both finish in the top 20 at RB this season. Bush is going to keep scoring, and if he gets 10 touches a game and goal line looks, he is worth flexing for someone in most 10-12 team leagues...though his utilization is weaker in PPR formats.

Oh and all that Jay Cutler talk fantasy-wise has got to be dead. He is not a #1 fantasy QB and won't be this year even if he turns it around and leads us to the Super Bowl; this slow start is going to seriously hamper any serious run at 4000 yards or 25 TDs, let alone 4200 and 30. Oh, and if your league punishes you for sacks, well...

Sleeper Watch for Week 4:

QB: Sanchez & Ponder

RB: Cedric Benson, Ben Tate, Ryan Williams, Michael Bush (who will score even if Forte plays)

WR: Brandon Lloyd, Malcolm Floyd, Christopher Lloyd (if he is in this time, in time), Kevin Walters, Mike Williams...and I was just kidding about the doctor, he won't be in this decade for the game, but I had a good run of Lloyd's & Floyd's going.

TE: Brandon Myers should play, Kyle Rudolph could repeat.

D/ST: Giants and Cowboys both have soft matchups this week...sorry guys.

Injury Watch:

**UPDATE** Running Backs: CJ Spiller, Matt Forte and Reggie Bush are all up to Questionable, and its quite possible they will ALL play...And Fred Jackson got kicked up to "Q" too. Sadly, Bush is a 4:15 game and Forte is a Mon. night game, so it requires gambling if you want to use them. Foster, Richardson, McFadden, McCoy, McGahee and Bradshaw are all designated Probable and are likely to play. Still have to watch Steven Jackson & Mikel LeShoure moving into Sunday, but at least they are 1:00 games.

Quarterbacks: It does not look like any relevant QB is going to miss this week.

Wide Receivers: C. Johnson, A. Johnson, J. Jones, Miles Austin, and J. Maclin have all been stuck as Probable and should play...but Nicks is down to Doubtful and should NOT see the field this week (hint hint, Ramses Barden anyone?). Dwayne Bowe & Dexter McCluster are both questionable just like the Chiefs passing game.Torrey Smith had a great game but got hurt and is on limp watch.

Tight Ends: Aaron Hernandez is still out. Gronkowski, Myers, and Cook should all play for various reasons - Myers passed his concussion test, Gronk is a new add and no one thinks he misses, and Cook's coach is optimistic (but is it Lovie Optimistic? Can we call him Optimistic Prime when he hits his stride?). Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph, and Jacob Tamme are all okay....and screw Pitta. Just saying.

Check your defensive/special teams squads and kickers on your own :)

Bye Week Reminder: Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts - This means no QB Ben Roethlisberger or Andrew Luck; no WR Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Donnie Avery or TY Hilton; no RB Rashad Mendenhall yet either, nor his backups, and no Donald Brown; no TE Coby Fleener or Heath Miller, no Pittsburgh D/ST; no K Shaun Suisham or Adam Viniateri.