Chicago Bears offensive skill positions: Projected stats for 2013 (pt.2)

We previously looked at how the team's offensive skill position players' stats projected for the season during the bye week, after 7 games. We're now 12 games in so it seems like a good point at which to recalculate and see how things are going.

To arrive at these numbers I simply divided each stat from NFL.com by 12 and multiplied the result by 16 [not entirely true: it was easier to divide by 0.75], rounding up. As before, for reference I also included their 2012 stats and pre-2013 career averages (see the original post for judgement calls) by way of comparison, as well as the projected stats from the bye week, after 7 games.

QB: Jay Cutler

The rows of interest are "Projected (raw)" and "Projected (no injuries)" - the former is scaled up with no regard for missed games (injuries happen), and the latter is what his stats would project to calculated on his having played, essentially, 7 games (was out for the end of Detroit, only played the start of Washington, missed GB).

	Att	Comp	Pct	Yds	Avg	Yds/G (/16G)	TD (%)	Int (%)	Sck	Lng	QB rating	Rush att	Yds	Avg	TD	Fum
Current	265	167	63.0	1,908	7.2	238.5	13 (4.9)	8 (3.0)	11	58	88.4	18	92	5.7	0	4
Projected (raw)	353	223	63.2	2,544	7.2	159.0	17 (4.8)	11 (3.1)	15		87.8	24	123	5.1		5
Projected (no injuries)	606	382	63.0	4,361	7.2	272.6	30 (5.0)	18 (3.0)	25		88.7	41	210	5.1		9
Projected (raw, bye week)	514	334	65.0	3,790	7.4	236.9	27 (5.3)	16 (3.1)	23		91.5	41	210	5.1		9
Projected (games 1-6)	579	381	65.8	4,347	7.5	271.7	32 (5.5)	16 (2.8)	24		95.1	48	245	5.1		11
2012	434	255	58.0	3,033	7.0	202.2 (189.6)	13 (4.1)	14 (3.2)	38	60T	81.3	41	233	5.7		1
Career avg	469.2	285.8	60.9	3,385.8	7.2	230.9 (211.6)	21.2 (4.5)	15.8 (3.4)	31	93T	83.8	41.7	183	4.4	1	3.3
Broncos avg	541.5	340.5	62.9	4,011.5	7.4	250.7	22.5 (4.2)	16 (3.0)	19	93T	86.9	50.5	202.5	4.0	1.5	5.5
Bears avg	433.75	258.5	59.6	3,073	7.1	219.5 (192.1)	20.5 (4.7)	15.75 (3.6)	37	89T	81.9	37.3	173.25	4.7	0.75	2.25

Cutler's stats have dipped a little following the bye week, although that consists of a good first half and an increasingly hobbled all-but-the-last-drive of the second half in the rematch against the Lions. While showing signs of regressing to the mean, he's still above both his career and Bears-only averages in most of the major passing stats, with only yardage being significantly impacted by injury.

We'll all be interested to see if he can pick it up again upon his return; if some of the beat writers are correct, Emery and Trestman have already decided that they've seen enough to want to keep him in Chicago... at least, for next season.

RB: Matt Forte

	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	214	971	4.5	55	7	58	445	7.7	33	1	2	2
Projected	285	1,295	4.5		9	77	593	7.7		1	3	3
Projected (bye week)	265	1,218	4.6		14	80	599	7.5		0	2	2
2012	248	1,094	4.4	46	5	44	340	7.7	47	1	2	1
Career avg	252.4	1,065.4	4.2	68T	5.2	53.4	465	8.7	89T	1.8	2.8	2

Forte's production on the ground has accelerated since the bye week, to the extent that - on current pace - he's set to overtake his previous career high of 1,238 yards as a rookie; he's not finding the endzone quite as regularly as in the first seven games, though. His projected touches increase from 345 to 362.

RB: Michael Bush

	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	43	84	2.0	15	2	3	31	10.3	15
Projected	57	112	2.0		3	4	41	10.3
Projected (bye week)	55	101	1.8		2	2	14	7.0
2012	114	411	3.6	20	5	9	83	9.2	18		1	1
Career avg	158	660.5	4.2	67T	5.25	22.8	219.8	9.7	55	0.25	1	1

I thought Bush might get more playing time, with the Bears leaning more on the ground game when McCown was in for Cutler. Things haven't entirely worked out that way, and his biggest contribution to all things Bears seems to be as an exclusive inside reporter for CSN Chicago's postgame shows. If the Bears get knocked out of playoff contention, will we see more Bush (giggity) in an attempt to preserve Forte from overuse?

WR: Brandon Marshall

	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	78	990	12.7	44	9
Projected	104	1,320	12.7		12
Projected (bye week)	105	1,234	11.8		11
2012	118	1,508	12.8	56	11	1	-2	-2.0	-2		2
Career avg	99	1,241	12.6	75T	7.2	3	17.7	5.9	2.0	0	2	1

Marshall's been more productive through the air since the bye week and is on course to have his third-highest receiving yardage season of his career (only 5 fewer than his breakout season in 2007), as well as lead the team in receptions and TDs but, arguably, he's been overshadowed by the breakout year of his young protégé...

WR: Alshon Jeffery

	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	70	1,109	15.8	80T	5	14	115	8.2	38	0	2	0
Projected	93	1,479	15.9		7	19	153	8.1			3
Projected (bye week)	75	1,282	17.1		5	14	201	14.4			2
2012	24	367	15.3	55	3						1

At the bye week I thought the main point of interest for revisiting offensive skill player season projections, aside from looking at Cutler's stats, would be to see where Jeffery would be at in his quest to hit 1,000 yards receiving, if he was holding up to the rigours of a full season, and whether teams were finally accounting for the Jeffery end-around. Already there, he's getting stronger as it progresses, and looks like.

This is the scenario Bears fans dreamt about last season: if only we had someone who could catch the ball when Marshall's drawing double teams. It's worth pointing out, though, that the Bears are 0-5 when Jeffery's caught 100+ yards.....

WR: Earl Bennett

	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	24	190	7.9	17T	2
Projected	32	253	7.9		3
Projected (bye week)	25	238	9.5		5
2012	29	375	12.9	60T	2
Career avg	38	508.5	13.3	71	2	0.5		4.5	5		1	0.25

Not much to say; Earl's been seeing a few more targets since the bye week - and answered the bell with an eight-catch game against the Ravens in atrocious conditions - but he's still fifth on the receiving options list.

TE: Martellus Bennett

	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rush att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Fum	Lost
Current	48	545	11.4	43	5
Projected	65	727	11.2		7
Projected (bye week)	73	814	11.1		9
2012 (NYG)	55	626	11.4	33T	5
Davis, Spaeth 2012	25	257	10.3	25	3						1	1
Career avg	28	294.4	10.5	37	1.8						0.2	0

Martellus Bennett's receiving numbers have declined in recent weeks, partly due to being asked to stay in to block more. He would still be on course to overtake his career-best season from last year. I'm not missing Kellen Davis.

What jumps out at you from these figures?

(Article pic in hi-res.)