Chicago Bears Defense & Specialists: Projected stats for 2013 (pt.2)

As with the offense, we looked at the Bears' defensive units' and special teams' projected stats for the season after seven games, during the bye week.  Let's recalculate and see how they're shaping up with three-quarters of the season gone.  All stats are taken from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.

As before, for reference I also included their 2012 stats and (for the specialists) pre-2013 career averages by way of comparison, as well as the projected stats from the bye week, after 7 games.

Overall defensive stats

	Tackles	Sacks	Sfty	PDef	Ints	TD	FFum	FumR	TD
Current	510	24	0	54	15	4	17	16	1
Projected	680	32		72	20	5	23	21	1
Projected (bye week)	752	21		98	23	7	30	18	2
2012	733	41	0	115	24	8	26	20	1

The pass rush has improved since the stagnant mess of the first seven games, but their projected total tackle numbers and number of passes defended have declined by nearly 10% and 20%, respectively.  This could be because the defense has been playing so well that they're getting off the field and haven't had to make so many tackles or defend so many passing attempts, or because they're really not getting it done.  I'll leave you to decide which for yourself.

Defensive line

	Tackles	Sacks	Sfty	PDef	Ints	TD	FFum	FumR	TD
Current	100	16.5	0	11	2	1	3	5	0
Projected	133	22		15	3	1	4	7
Projected (bye week)	114	9		2			5	11
2012	149	38	0	4	0		7	4	0

The defensive line have stepped up their sack rate since the bye week.  They're still only on course to a little over half the number they racked up last season, but it's a great deal better than what they were producing after 7 games.  Combined with a large increase in passes defended, signs are that the line are impacting the passing game more than they were early in the season.  They've even picked up two interceptions, one of which was returned for six!

They've also been racking up more tackles than in the first seven games, though this may also be a function of teams running the ball more against the Bears.  We'll get a clearer picture if we look at the second and third lines of defense.

Linebackers

	Tackles	Sacks	Sfty	PDef	Ints	TD	FFum	FumR	TD
Current	167	7	0	13	2		4	0	0
Projected	223	9		17	3		5
Projected (bye week)	240	11		25			7	2
2012	188	3	0	23	3	3	5	3	0

A slight decline in sacks and a larger drop in passes defended may be indicative of the struggles of the unit since Lance Briggs went out with a broken collarbone, though the opportunity to make those plays may also have declined with the defensive line being more effective against the pass.

Tackle rate has dropped slightly, although still on course to be much greater than last season.  What this means will make more sense once we look at the...

Secondary

	Tackles	Sacks	Sfty	PDef	Ints	TD	FFum	FumR	TD
Current	237	0.5	0	29	11	3	8	1	0
Projected	316	0.5		39	15	4	11	1
Projected (bye week)	306			48	23	7	14	2
2012	280	0	0	65	21	5	11	9	0

Craig Steltz has been added to the position group's tally (he has 10 for the season, most of which came against the Vikings in the last game); the secondary's projected tackles increase only fractionally but their passes defended, forced fumbles, and interceptions rate have declined.  The loss of Charles Tillman won't have helped.

With an overall decrease in number of tackles but the linebackers' numbers dropping, and the D-line's increasing (and the secondary's staying moreorless constant), either the Bears' opponents have had trouble running the ball against our line and have taken to bypassing the linebackers by airing it downfield, or James Anderson and the two rookies, Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene, are struggling.  You decide.

Kick returner: Devin Hester

	Punt Rt	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/Rt	K/o Rt	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/Rt	APYd
Current	15	167	1	81T	11.1	36	1,015	0	80	28.2	1,182
Projected	20	223			11.1	48	1,353			28.2	1,576
Projected (bye week)	21	274	2		13.0	48	1,406			29.3	1,680
2012	40	331	0	44	8.3	24	621	0	40	25.9	1,200
Career avg	35.1	426.4	1.7	89T	12.1	24.3	581.1	0.7	98T	23.9	1,007.6

Hester's been less effective in the punt return game since the bye week, though he did have an apparent score negated by a penalty against the Baltimore Ravens, and his kickoff return projections are much the same.  Can he get that 20th punt/KO return to take him clear of the mark he shares with Deion Sanders before his contract, and possibly career as a Bear, comes to an end?  Four games to go.....

Kicker: Robbie Gould

	FG att	FGM	Lng	Blk	Pct
Current	24	21	58	0	87.5
Projected	32	28			87.5
Projected (bye week)	30	27			90.0
2012	25	21	54	2	84.0
Career avg	30.4	26	57	1.25	85.6

Even with those two missed field goals against the Vikings last weekend, Robbie Gould's regression to the mean is to a very high mean.  I can't help but wonder if there's a proportion of fans who think that the Bears deliberately put him in position to fail to lower his success rate, and thus his asking price come the offseason?

Punter: Adam Podlesh

	Punts	Yds	Net Yds	Lng	Avg	Net Avg	Blk	OOB	Dn	In 20	TB	FC	Ret	RetY	TD
Current	55	2,289	2,160	65	41.6	38.6	1	10	12	23	1	20	12	109	0
Projected	73	3,052	2,880		41.8	39.5	1	13	16	31	1	27	16	145
Projected (bye week)	66	2,889	2,670		43.8	40.5		11	18	30	2	23	11	174
2012	81	3,399	3,195	64	42.0	39.4	0	7	18	34	6	25	25	84	0
Career avg	66.5	2,842.2	2,576.7	76	42.7	38.7	0	5.8	10.2	21.7	3.8	16.5	29.2	168.8	0

Would you believe that was the first blocked punt of Podlesh's career?  Also, I made a mistake in the original stats projections post during the bye week, in which I put him down as having had 7 touchbacks instead of the solitary one he'd actually tallied [Doshi, you were correct to raise your eyebrows].  The Bears have been punting at an increased rate since the bye week, which would correspond with the offense's problems converting their third down chances.

Long snapper: Patrick Mannelly

	Awesomeness
Current	Awesome
Projected	Awesome
Projected (bye week)	Awesome
2012	Awesome
Career avg	Awesome

Was there ever any doubt?

What are your thoughts?  Are the defensive line's improved stats - and they can only get better with Jeremiah Ratliff in the fold - a cause for hope?

(A happy David Bass scoring his pick 6 in hi-res.)