Have you seen the Interceptable Passes Project?
Jay Cutler is always a hot topic of debate among Chicago Bears fans, so I wanted to pass along this data that was compiled by Cian Fahey, who writes for Football Outsiders, Football Guys, Bleacher Report and the site that I linked up today, Pre Snap Reads.
Bottom line, this isn't someone with an agenda about Cutler either way, it's just a writer that does some research every off season and gives it a statistical spin.
In his Project, he charts every interceptable ball thrown by a quarterback. Yes, I suppose we're back to talking about the legendary 'almost interceptions', but the difference this time is Fahey actually charted them for 31 NFL QBs.
Jay Cutler, who tied for first in the NFL with 18 interceptions, was marked down for 24 interceptable passes. Those 24 'almost picks' ranked Cutler 10th according to Fahey's data. The nine QBs ahead of Cutler in interceptable balls thrown during the 2014 season were Brian Hoyer (36), Derek Carr (35), Tom Brady (31), Joe Flacco (31), Blake Bortles (31), Drew Brees (30), Andrew Luck (28), Andy Dalton (28) and Cam Newton (25).
Fahey also charts interceptions that weren't the fault of the quarterback. Stuff like Hail Mary throws, tipped balls, wide receiver running the wrong route, basically anything that happened that was out of the QB's control. He had Cutler down for 8 interceptions that weren't his fault.
Before we go any further, I get that some of these "stats" are subjective, but keep in mind he's looking at all 31 quarterbacks the same way. There isn't any Anti- or Pro-Cutler bias in his data that I know of.
But back to those 8 picks that weren't on Cutler, that was the highest number Fahey charted. The next most interceptions not the fault of the QB were attributed to San Diego's Philip Rivers (6), who is the player Cutler tied with for most actual interceptions thrown last season.
When you factor in the interceptable balls thrown with the interceptions not the fault of the QB, Jay Cutler threw an interceptable ball every 23.4 attempts. That ranked him 16th among the QBs charted. Best in the NFL was Kansas City's Alex Smith with an interceptable pass thrown every 58 attempts. Cutler ranked just in front of Tom Brady (23.1) and Drew Brees (22.0) and just behind Carson Palmer (24.9) and Robert Griffin III (23.8).
Here's what Cain Fahey had to say about Cutler.
Jay Cutler doesn't throw a huge number of interceptable passes, but the ones he does throw are typically bad ones that make them more likely to be caught. While he had his own issues, Cutler can also point to his huge number of interceptions that were created by his teammates. Cutler got very little help from Marc Trestman, his offensive line or his receivers last year.
Cutler does have his own issues with turnovers and he's had them his entire career. If Cutler can get his actual interception percentage down near the career-best 2.2% he posted in year two of the Martzfense, the Bears offense may not sputter as much as year two under Trestman.
What are your thoughts and expectations for Jay Cutler now that some new data has been added to the discussion?
* Keep in mind a couple things before commenting, this is not an Open Thread and every single one of you that joined WCG agreed to our Community Guidelines.
Discussing Jay Cutler will bring out the passion and fire in a of of people. Disagreeing with what someone said is A-OK, attacking someone for what they said is not. No taking passive-aggressive shots at people and don't take anything personal.
Have fun out there!