The Chicago Bears have won a grand total of 9 games in the two years of the Ryan Pace - John Fox era. The team seemed to regress a little in year two, but how much of that can be attributed to the rash of injuries the team suffered through? Football Outsiders recently crunched the injury numbers and the Bears had the most games lost due to injury in the league. Not only did they lead the NFL in Adjusted Games Lost in 2016, but they had the highest ever total in the history of them tracking the stat.
Football Outsiders is also in the projecting business and they have the Chicago Bears down for a 7-9 season in 2017. That’s good for a 3rd place NFC North finish. Where do they get their projections you may ask? The formula is built around their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings, the strength of schedule and other calculations.
Here’s how they have the NFC North playing out and what they said about the Bears.
1. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12)
2. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 9)
3. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13)
4. Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 8)
The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward.
Would a 7 win season be enough improvement for you guys?