FanPost

WCG Community Mock Draft - Recap and Analysis

The week before the 2017 NFL Draft, the members of the Windy City Gridiron community signed up for a Mock Draft of the first round, and part of the second round leading up to the Bears pick at #36. Members signed up to draft for one or two teams, as if they were the GMs of that team. Here is a direct link to that article, and the comments section as everyone participated in the Mock Draft:

Windy City Gridiron 2017 Community Mock Draft

Everyone took things pretty seriously, and really did a good job. At the time, some of the responses of how it turned out were mixed, but when measured against the actual NFL Draft last weekend, I think we were a lot closer on a few things than we realized. In this article I'll go over an analysis of how we all did compared to the actual NFL Draft.

Draft Results and Comparison Table

Below is a table of the WCG "GMs" and the teams they picked for, their picks, and then a listing of how the actual NFL Draft went on the right. I used three methods to score the picks:

  • PLAYER column score of "1" means that the WCG GM mocked the correct player to the correct draft slot (regardless of actual selecting team) OR that the correct player was matched to the correct team (regardless of which slot that team ended up picking after a trade)
  • POSITION column score of "1" means the WCG GM mocked the correct position to the team he/she was picking for (regardless of where that team made that pick in the actual draft)
  • VARIANCE column shows the is the number of draft slots the actual player was taken compared to where the WCG GM had picked that player

There are a few other things to note before looking at the chart. First, for the couple of teams that had more than one pick in the first round, I didn't care which order they selected the positions. A good example was Tennessee, who Mike.Faust mocked a CB and a WR too. The Titans ended up taking the WR first and the CB second, but I still gave him full points for getting the positions correct.

I didn't bother scoring the 2nd round. There wasn't a single team that picked in their original draft slot in the first part of the second round due to all the trade ups or downs, so I included it for reference, but didn't include it in the scoring and analysis. That was an ad-lib add on anyway at the end, as the original focus for this mock was the first round.

Lastly, SBNation and Windy City Gridiron have very narrow banners at the top of their websites, and this chart is wider than the banner, so you will need to scroll left and right using the slide bar at the bottom. I know it's inconvenient, but I really didn't have another option as I wanted to show as much relevant information as possible.

Mock Draft and Scoring

ACTUAL Draft Results

Pick

Team

WCG GM

Player

Position

College

Player

Position

Variance

Player

Position

College

Drafting Team

1

Cleveland BROWNS

Ken Mitchell

Myles Garrett

DE

Texas A&M

1

1

0

Myles Garrett

DE

Texas A&M

Cleveland BROWNS

2

San Francisco 49ERS

rockbadger

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

North Carolina

1

0

0

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

North Carolina

Chicago BEARS

3

Chicago BEARS

KTB62

DeShaun Watson

QB

Clemson

0

1

9

Solomon Thomas

DE

Stanford

San Francisco 49ERS

4

Jacksonville JAGUARS

Footballgood

Leonard Fournette

RB

LSU

1

1

0

Leonard Fournette

RB

LSU

Jacksonville JAGUARS

5

Tennessee TITANS

Mike.Faust

Marshon Lattimore

CB

Ohio State

0

1

6

Corey Davis

WR

Western Michigan

Tennessee TITANS

6

New York JETS

Blackhawks329

Patrick Mahomes

QB

Texas Tech

0

0

4

Jamal Adams

S

LSU

New York JETS

7

Los Angeles CHARGERS

tfrabotta

Jamal Adams

S

LSU

0

0

1

Mike Williams

WR

Clemson

Los Angeles CHARGERS

8

Carolina PANTHERS

dersour

Solomon Thomas

DE

Stanford

0

0

6

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Stanford

Carolina PANTHERS

9

Cincinnati BENGALS

TacticalPanda

Derek Barnette

DE

Tennessee

0

0

5

John Ross

WR

Washington

Cincinnati BENGALS

10

Buffalo BILLS

TacticalPanda

OJ Howard

TE

Alabama

0

0

10

Patrick Mahomes

QB

Texas Tech

Kansas City CHIEFS

11

New Orleans SAINTS

MCMLXXXVII

Malik Hooker

S

Ohio State

0

0

4

Marshon Lattimore

CB

Ohio State

New Orleans SAINTS

12

Cleveland BROWNS

Ken Mitchell

Tre'Davious White

CB

LSU

0

0

15

DeShaun Watson

QB

Clemson

Houston TEXANS

13

Arizona CARDINALS

seven11

Jonathan Allen

DT

Alabama

0

0

4

Haason Reddick

LB

Temple

Arizona CARDINALS

14

Philadelphia EAGLES

x160630

John Ross

WR

Washington

0

0

5

Derek Barnette

DE

Tennessee

Philadelphia EAGLES

15

Indianapolis COLTS

x160630

Marlon Humphrey

CB

Alabama

0

0

1

Malik Hooker

S

Ohio State

Indianapolis COLTS

16

Baltimore RAVENS

WhiskeyRanger

Haason Reddick

LB

Temple

0

0

3

Marlon Humphrey

CB

Alabama

Baltimore RAVENS

17

Washington REDSKINS

rockbadger

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Stanford

0

0

9

Jonathan Allen

DT

Alabama

Washington REDSKINS

18

Tennessee TITANS

Mike.Faust

Mike Williams

WR

Clemson

0

1

11

Adoree' Jackson

CB

USC

Tennessee TITANS

19

Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS

Bare Whether

Dalvin Cook

RB

Florida State

0

0

22

OJ Howard

TE

Alabama

Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS

20

Denver BRONCOS

Grumpy Middle Aged Man

Garrett Bolles

OT

Utah

1

1

0

Garrett Bolles

OT

Utah

Denver BRONCOS

21

Detroit LIONS

Bare Whether

Corey Davis

WR

Western Michigan

0

0

16

Jarrad Davis

LB

Florida

Detroit LIONS

22

Miami DOLPHINS

46 forever

Taco Charlton

DE

Michigan

0

1

6

Charles Harris

DE

Missouri

Miami DOLPHINS

23

New York GIANTS

MikeHoncho47

David Njoku

TE

Miami

0

1

6

Evan Engram

TE

Ole Miss

New York GIANTS

24

Oakland RAIDERS

Mike Ditka's Cigar

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

0

0

7

Gareon Conley

CB

Ohio State

Oakland RAIDERS

25

Houston TEXANS

Grumpy Middle Aged Man

Davis Webb

QB

California

0

1

62

Jabrill Peppers

S

Michigan

Cleveland BROWNS

26

Seattle SEAHAWKS

KTB62

Cam Robinson

OT

Alabama

0

0

8

Takkarist McKinley

EDGE

UCLA

Atlanta FALCONS

27

Kansas City CHIEFS

TJGOBIG

TJ Watt

EDGE

Wisconsin

0

0

3

Tre'Davious White

CB

LSU

Buffalo BILLS

28

Dallas COWBOYS

TJGOBIG

Quincy Wilson

CB

Florida

0

0

18

Taco Charlton

DE

Michigan

Dallas COWBOYS

29

Green Bay PACKERS

Bill Cartrwright's Elbow

Forrest Lamp

OG

Western Kentucky

0

0

9

David Njoku

TE

Miami

Cleveland BROWNS

30

Pittsburgh STEELERS

46 forever

Jabrill Peppers

S

Michigan

0

0

5

TJ Watt

EDGE

Wisconsin

Pittsburgh STEELERS

31

Atlanta FALCONS

Bill Cartwright's Elbow

Charles Harris

DE

Missouri

0

1

9

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

San Francisco 49ERS

32

New Orleans SAINTS

MCMLXXXVII

Budda Baker

S

Washington

0

0

4

Ryan Ramczyk

OT

Wisconsin

New Orleans SAINTS

ROUND 2

33

Cleveland BROWNS

Ken Mitchell

Joshua Dobbs

QB

Tennessee

0

0

102

Kevin King

CB

Washington

Green Bay PACKERS

34

San Francisco 49ERS

rockbadger

Gareon Conley

CB

Ohio State

0

0

10

Cam Robinson

OT

Alabama

Jacksonville JAGUARS

35

Jacksonville JAGUARS

Footballgood

Ryan Ramczyk

OT

Wisconsin

0

0

3

Malik McDowell

DT

Michigan State

Seattle SEAHAWKS

36

Chicago BEARS

KTB62

Obi Melifonwu

S

UCONN

0

0

20

Budda Baker

S

Washington

Arizona CARDINALS

Mock Draft Statistical Analysis

After reviewing the results above, here is a breakout of how we did overall looking at things through a couple of different lenses.

Round 1 Stats

Average Variance:

8.375 *

Correct Draft Slot (For PLAYER):

4

Positions Correct (For TEAM):

10

Round 1 Player Hits

26 / 32

* There was one pick in the first round that really threw off the average. Davis Webb mocked to the Texans by Grumpy Middle Aged Man was off 62 draft slots. The overall average of the rest of the mock if you remove that one pick was 6.645, so overall, the mock accuracy was better than reflected. It should also be noted, of course, that the Texans did take a QB, so GMAM did get the proper position mocked to his team, just not the correct QB.

Round 1 Accuracy

Variance (0-5)

15

Variance (6-10)

11

Variance (11-15)

2

Variance (16-20)

2

Variance (21+)

2

Our overall accuracy was very good as well. As listed in the first table, we had 26 out of 32 players correctly taken in the first round. As shown directly above, 26 of the 32 fist round picks had players within 10 draft slots of where we mocked them and almost half of the picks in our mock were within 5 draft slots. While we only matched 4 players to the correct draft slots exactly, likely due to all the trades in the actual draft, the accuracy was still very good.

WCG Community Mock Draft Recap

For this final section, I wanted to highlight several aspects of our mock draft that stood out to me.

The early run on QBs

After the draft, rockbadger, KTB62 and Blackhawks329 took a bit of heat about all those QBs going that high. The general mindset was that this was a weaker QB class, and that while one may go in the Top 5, we wouldn't see three go in the Top 6. After the actual draft, I have to say they were more right than wrong. While it's clear that San Francisco didn't plan on taking a QB, Mitch Trubisky did go #2 overall to our Bears. And, while it sounds like if Trubisky was gone before the Bears picked somehow, that the Bears wouldn't have taken the "next QB" on their board, the Bears did take a QB which is what KTB62 was thinking. As for the Jets, if the Bears didn't take MT at #2, there might have been trade-up action for him and perhaps the Jets were more in on some of this than we thought.

Still, it is clear that these QBs were valued higher by the NFL teams than they were by the media or a lot of us fans. Kansas City and Houston traded up from the bottom of the first round to take Mahomes and Watson in the Top 12, so there was an early run on QBs, that started with the Bears, which no doubt sent ripples through the rest of the draft, much like we saw here on our WCG mock. So I feel like our drafters were closer to the truth than we initially thought.

Props to those who mocked their picks exactly

  • Ken Mitchell obviously got Myles Garrett correct to the Browns at #1
  • Footballgood correctly mocked Leonard Fournette to the Jacksonville Jaguars at #4
  • Grumpy Middle Aged Man nailed the Garrett Bolles to the Denver Broncos at #20

Some perceived big misses, and some actual big misses

At the time, Ken drew a bit of criticism for taking Tre'Davious White for the Browns at #12. Many thought it was too high for him as people felt he was a second rounder, but as it turned out, it wasn't as big of a miss or a reach for the player. White ended up going in slot #27 to the Buffalo Bills who had traded down with the Chiefs, so White was in fact a first rounder and wasn't that far off.

The two biggest misses of the draft were Davis Webb, who actually went in the third round to the New York Giants, and Joshua Dobbs, who Ken mocked to the Browns at the top of the second round. Joshua Dobbs didn't end up going until the fourth round to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Although Ken missed on Dobbs, the Browns did end up taking a QB in the second round in Deshone Kizer, so he wasn't far off as far as the positional need.

Both Webb and Dobbs had gained some buzz prior to the draft, but it turned out that the first or second round was perhaps a bit rich for them. What is most telling, I think, are the teams they actually went to: Both teams with established QBs. It looks like teams with established QBs, but ones which are nearing the end of their careers, decided to spin the wheel in the third or fourth rounds instead of going near the top of the draft. The teams with less established QBs (yes, I consider Alex Smith in that category) took them much higher in the first round.

Player slides

One thing that stood out to me too was how overall we did a good job projecting some of the player slides in this draft. We weren't far off with where Marshon Lattimore, Reuben Foster, Jonathan Allen, and Malik Hooker fell to. Overall, I think we did a pretty good job predicting which players would slide, and about how far they would.

As an aside there, I slotted Reuben Foster falling to the Raiders at #24 because I felt they would be a team that may overlook his off-field issues a bit and be OK taking a "bad boy" of sorts. Boy, given who the Raiders actually ended up taking, I was pretty spot-on about their willingness to take a chance on a guy with some off field issues, eh?

Closing thoughts

In closing, I want to thank everyone who participated and commented on this Mock Draft this year. While at first glance, only matching four players out of 32 to the correct draft slot doesn't seem very good, when you look at our actual variance from where we mocked players to where they went, I think we did excellent, including correctly predicting some positional runs and player slides.

There were a total of 5 trades in the first round this year, and trades definitely mess up mock drafts. Additionally, when you have a major surprise at the very top of a draft, like we did with the Bears moving up for Trubisky, it can have a cascading affect on a lot of teams draft directions and effect the landscape dramatically. Given all of that, I think our WCG General Managers did an outstanding job of sticking to their boards, rating players properly, and picking guys really close to where their actual draft value was as determined by the actual NFL teams.

Hope everyone enjoyed this, and we will definitely do this again next year.

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.