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Windy City Gridiron Confidence Board 1.1

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This is a follow-up article providing a quick look at who others think are the top draft prospects of 2018.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: JAN 01 Citrus Bowl - Notre Dame v LSU
This man would look really good with C on his helmet...just sayin’
Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This is the second iteration of my confidence board. Just to review, I attempt to bring together different draft boards to determine what sort of consensus surrounds top prospects. Of course, this requires both a methodology and a certain amount of openness.

First, the methodology. For now, I am only using public boards that rank either Top 10 by position or Top 100 overall, and I am only using one board per guru (for example, if a site has both a “position ranking” and a “top 100” ranking, then I am only using the more recent of the two). I am in no way weighting boards or privileging one over another. There are boards I disagree with and boards that I like. Once I get more boards, I will provide some deeper analysis. For now, however, I’m just providing the context.

As for scoring, the top prospect on each board, by position or overall, gets a perfect score. Everyone else gets a portion of that (for example, the second-best position player gets a 90% score, and the second-best overall player gets a 99% score). The full board can be found here [link], but do not go looking for rigorous statistical methodology. This is more an exercise in gathering raw data than it is an effort to reinvent the wheel. This is because I firmly believe that the best way to really evaluate a prospect is to watch the player play, and so this is simply a public version of how I decide who I want to watch.

That leads to the need for “openness.” I have my own ideas about some of these players. However, I like to gather together the opinions of others, especially those who usually see things differently from me, because I believe that it helps give me a better sense of my own biases.

The current version includes boards from Matt Miller (11-27), Walter Football (12-28), Luke Easterling (12-11), Our Lads (1-5), NFL Draft Geek (11-19), NFL Draft Days (12-28), CBS Sports (1-3), and Windy City Gridiron’s own Jacob Infante (1-8). In the next edition, I will remove players who have committed to return to college and I will also update some of the older boards. If you have a board you would like to see me include, leave me a note in the comments section.

Top Prospects

Rank Player Position Scaled Score
Rank Player Position Scaled Score
1 Barkley, Saquon RB 98.60%
2 Fitzpatrick, Minkah S 97.10%
3 Rosen, Josh QB 96.30%
4 Chubb, Bradley EDGE 94.90%
5 James, Derwin S 93.90%
6 Nelson, Quenton IOL 89.90%
7 Wilkins, Christian DL 88.30%
8 Darnold, Sam QB 86.60%
9 Guice, Derrius RB 85.10%
10 Ridley, Calvin WR 84.80%
11 Key, Arden EDGE 83.70%
12 Sutton, Courtland WR 80.70%
13 Ward, Denzel CB 80.60%
14 Andrews, Mark TE 79.70%
15 McGlinchey, Mike OT 79.20%
16 Williams, Connor OT 78.00%
17 Price, Billy IOL 77.20%
18 Landry, Harold EDGE 76.90%
19 Payne, Da'Ron DL 73.00%
20 Jefferson, Malik LB 70.30%
21 Hurst, Maurice DL 70.30%
22 Vea, Vita DL 69.10%
23 Brown, Orlando OT 67.40%
24 Alexander, Jaire CB 66.80%
25 Jackson, Lamar QB 65.90%
26 Smith, Braden IOL 65.20%
27 Ferrell, Clelin EDGE 62.70%
28 Smith, Roquan LB 61.90%
29 Kirk, Christian WR 61.90%
30 Harrison, Ronnie S 60.20%
31 Jackson, Josh CB 58.10%
32 Ragnow, Frank IOL 56.70%
33 Rudolph, Mason QB 56.60%
34 Love, Bryce RB 56.00%
35 Hernandez, Will IOL 55.30%
36 Evans, Rashaan LB 54.20%
37 Washington, James WR 53.80%
38 Goedert, Dallas TE 53.40%
39 Rankin, Martinas OT 53.10%
40 Allen, Josh QB 51.90%
41 Oliver, Isaiah CB 51.30%
42 Mayfield, Baker QB 50.80%
All other players are below 50%