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This is the second iteration of my confidence board. Just to review, I attempt to bring together different draft boards to determine what sort of consensus surrounds top prospects. Of course, this requires both a methodology and a certain amount of openness.
First, the methodology. For now, I am only using public boards that rank either Top 10 by position or Top 100 overall, and I am only using one board per guru (for example, if a site has both a “position ranking” and a “top 100” ranking, then I am only using the more recent of the two). I am in no way weighting boards or privileging one over another. There are boards I disagree with and boards that I like. Once I get more boards, I will provide some deeper analysis. For now, however, I’m just providing the context.
As for scoring, the top prospect on each board, by position or overall, gets a perfect score. Everyone else gets a portion of that (for example, the second-best position player gets a 90% score, and the second-best overall player gets a 99% score). The full board can be found here [link], but do not go looking for rigorous statistical methodology. This is more an exercise in gathering raw data than it is an effort to reinvent the wheel. This is because I firmly believe that the best way to really evaluate a prospect is to watch the player play, and so this is simply a public version of how I decide who I want to watch.
That leads to the need for “openness.” I have my own ideas about some of these players. However, I like to gather together the opinions of others, especially those who usually see things differently from me, because I believe that it helps give me a better sense of my own biases.
The current version includes boards from Matt Miller (11-27), Walter Football (12-28), Luke Easterling (12-11), Our Lads (1-5), NFL Draft Geek (11-19), NFL Draft Days (12-28), CBS Sports (1-3), and Windy City Gridiron’s own Jacob Infante (1-8). In the next edition, I will remove players who have committed to return to college and I will also update some of the older boards. If you have a board you would like to see me include, leave me a note in the comments section.
Top Prospects
Rank | Player | Position | Scaled Score |
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Player | Position | Scaled Score |
1 | Barkley, Saquon | RB | 98.60% |
2 | Fitzpatrick, Minkah | S | 97.10% |
3 | Rosen, Josh | QB | 96.30% |
4 | Chubb, Bradley | EDGE | 94.90% |
5 | James, Derwin | S | 93.90% |
6 | Nelson, Quenton | IOL | 89.90% |
7 | Wilkins, Christian | DL | 88.30% |
8 | Darnold, Sam | QB | 86.60% |
9 | Guice, Derrius | RB | 85.10% |
10 | Ridley, Calvin | WR | 84.80% |
11 | Key, Arden | EDGE | 83.70% |
12 | Sutton, Courtland | WR | 80.70% |
13 | Ward, Denzel | CB | 80.60% |
14 | Andrews, Mark | TE | 79.70% |
15 | McGlinchey, Mike | OT | 79.20% |
16 | Williams, Connor | OT | 78.00% |
17 | Price, Billy | IOL | 77.20% |
18 | Landry, Harold | EDGE | 76.90% |
19 | Payne, Da'Ron | DL | 73.00% |
20 | Jefferson, Malik | LB | 70.30% |
21 | Hurst, Maurice | DL | 70.30% |
22 | Vea, Vita | DL | 69.10% |
23 | Brown, Orlando | OT | 67.40% |
24 | Alexander, Jaire | CB | 66.80% |
25 | Jackson, Lamar | QB | 65.90% |
26 | Smith, Braden | IOL | 65.20% |
27 | Ferrell, Clelin | EDGE | 62.70% |
28 | Smith, Roquan | LB | 61.90% |
29 | Kirk, Christian | WR | 61.90% |
30 | Harrison, Ronnie | S | 60.20% |
31 | Jackson, Josh | CB | 58.10% |
32 | Ragnow, Frank | IOL | 56.70% |
33 | Rudolph, Mason | QB | 56.60% |
34 | Love, Bryce | RB | 56.00% |
35 | Hernandez, Will | IOL | 55.30% |
36 | Evans, Rashaan | LB | 54.20% |
37 | Washington, James | WR | 53.80% |
38 | Goedert, Dallas | TE | 53.40% |
39 | Rankin, Martinas | OT | 53.10% |
40 | Allen, Josh | QB | 51.90% |
41 | Oliver, Isaiah | CB | 51.30% |
42 | Mayfield, Baker | QB | 50.80% |