FanPost

What could Ryan Pace have done?

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Ryan Pace is 14-34 as Bears GM. The team has spent his entire 3 year tenure at the bottom of the NFC North. It has set a team record for futility during an injury-riddled 16-game season with a 3-13 record in 2016, the same year it tied its own NFL record for fewest turnovers. In his third year, with better (but not great) health, the team went 5-11, same as the record of the team Pace inherited. Yet, despite all that, he also has a 75% approval rating here on WCG. It puzzles me, because I’ll posit that anyone reading this could have steered the Bears to 3 straight, last place finishes along with team records for futility while making the roster a little younger. Certainly, any professional NFL GM could have done that.

"There’s nothing more he could do," is the common refrain. To me, that defense makes him look even worse. Good GMs get things done, like Howie Roseman trading up to get Carson Wentz. Bad GMs shrug their shoulders and say nothing could be done.

"Oh, so what would you have done?" Well, that’s the purpose of this piece. Sure, I’m about to use the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, but that’s my right as a fan, and I’ll address this very thing in each point. Meanwhile, GM’s like Pace are paid big bucks to have foresight. Figuring out what’s going to happen before it happens may seem like too much to ask until you realize: That’s the job of every organizational leader. If you don’t predict the future well, you’re not going to be a very good leader. Pace’s job is to make the best decisions for the team moving forward and it doesn’t matter one iota if you or I would have made the same decisions. If you can’t accept this, then you can stop reading now, and just let me know in the comments how you think leaders should be held accountable if not by the results of the decisions they make.

So, let’s look at those decisions. The "hindsight factor" indicates what % of hindsight is needed to rectify his decision. An obvious decision requires very little hindsight, a tough decision requires more. Below 50% means that I think many fans knew at the time it was a bad decision. If it's over 50%, that means that I believe a majority of Bears fans would have made the same decision as Pace did, not that it absolves him, because having foresight is his job.

What could Pace have done differently?

1. Set expectations. "Ted, George, I’ve heard you guys tell the press how you want a quick turnaround. I’m here to tell you not to expect one, and I’m asking you to stop pandering to impatient fans by talking about it. This is going to take time. This first year, especially, is going to be a step back from even last year in terms of wins and losses. We will restore the professionalism that was lacking last year, but most of our best players are aging and replacing them is going to require patience and some intestinal fortitude."

Instead, I’m pretty sure Pace went for the quick fix. Hiring Fox, sticking with Cutler, his delve into 2016 FA with Trevathan, his attempts at FA in 2017, and even quotes of his suggest he was looking for a fast turnaround. Since Pace took on the role of GM, the Bears organization sounded nothing like the Cubs did after hiring Theo Epstein. By contrast, Epstein was up front and consistent about needing time, and his bosses didn't publicly say anything else.

Hindsight factor: 30%. I think many of us knew the Bears were not a quick fix away. I don’t think we need much 20/20 hindsight to say they should have committed to the long rebuild right away. At the same time, I’ve argued that NFL rebuilds should only take 3 years. It seems like the Bears were looking for an even-faster-than-3-year rebuild, though. Still, Pace's bosses kept talking about a quick rebuild, Ted Phillips specifically. Either Pace was on board, or they weren't on the same page, and neither reflects well on Pace.

2. Cut Jay Cutler right away. This would have been highly unpopular but if you’re in for the long haul, you move on from him without delay. You only stick with the aging and highly paid Cutler and try to rebuild around him if you’re going for the quick fix.

It was reported that the Bears explored the trade market but that there were no takers. If you’re committed to a true rebuild, you then you grit your teeth, cut him, and eat the cap hit. It’s not like the Bears were short of money or were up against the cap. If Cutler isn’t your QB of the future, then clear him out along with the other players who don’t fit in. "Pace had to tear everything down to the studs and rebuild," some say. Except that he didn’t for the most important position on the field until two full years had gone by. Those two years were essentially wasted, and there’s no excuse for that.

Another way to have gone, not that I would have, is truly commit to Jay Cutler as your future, and I’ll elaborate upon this more in other points. That means that after a tough 2016, with no successor in the pipeline, you bring Cutler back, draft his successor, and milk what you can out of him, as opposed to cutting him in favor of a career backup.

Sticking with Cutler, then putting all eggs in that basket by not drafting anyone to succeed him, then going ahead and cutting him the next off season and replacing him with Mike Glennon, that was an awful plan. It smacks of being caught in between. I personally thought Glennon was a better option for the Bears at the time, but the key thing here is that Pace’s plan left him without any good options.

Hindsight factor: 60%, maybe more. This was probably the toughest set of decisions for Ryan Pace, facing a huge cap hit from moving on, and not knowing whether the polarizing Cutler was part of the problem, or just a victim of Trestman’s mismanagement (some of each, I’d say).

Even following a pretty lousy 2016 for Cutler, most of WCG was fervently in favor of hanging onto him. So, it’s not like it would have gone over very well had Pace cut him right away, even if I personally would have supported it. I admit this was a tough situation for a GM to deal with, but a better GM deals with it in a better way than Pace did.

3. Hire Doug Pederson. You’re reading thinking "oh come on, nobody knew" but I mean this more as: Don’t hire John Fox, but I feel I have to then say who should have been hired instead. Could have hired Dan Quinn, too.

John Fox wasn’t hired for a long rebuild, he was hired for a quick one. If you are truly committed to the long rebuild, then hire a coach you can grow with, not one you know you’ll have to replace once he gets you from Point A to Point B.

Hindsight factor: 40%. Hiring Pederson specifically is with a 100% hindsight factor, but many fans didn’t want any part of John Fox. Personally, I was on board with the hire so I understood the thinking, many of us did, but many of us didn’t as well.

There is a caveat here: If you’re really committed to cutting Cutler along with everyone else who got cleaned out, and therefore ready to bottom out in 2015, you face the real danger of losing 16 games if you hire a first-time head coach. In that case, hiring Fox makes some sense: We’re going to be playing with a rebuilt defense and an unestablished QB, we just need a coach who can make sure we don’t lose all 16 games. Fox would have been better than most for that particular job. It also would have nearly assured him of a Year 2 bounce. I still say, not the right hire with hindsight, but it would have made more sense in that scenario.

4. Draft Vic Beasley. You’re starting a rebuild. You don’t do it with a wide receiver. You just don’t. You especially don’t do it when you have Alshon Jeffery on your roster, but a historically bad defense. You go defensive front-7 or even OL or QB, but not WR. If Pace cut Cutler, then paid the price to move up and draft Mariota as his first pick, fine. If he didn’t want to pay the price, then trade down from the 7 spot and get more picks for a team with so many needs. I suspect there were no takers for that, so then draft Vic Beasley and start rebuilding on the defensive side of the ball.

Hindsight factor: 10%. Many of us could have told you before the draft not to draft a friggin’ wide receiver, and many of us were really disappointed by the pick of Kevin White, a project of a WR at that. Sure, White was considered a great prospect and included in the top-10 of many mock drafts, so I’ll give it more than 0%, but it was easy to see that White was very unlikely to be the best way to go for Pace’s first pick.

5. Draft a new QB before 2017. Keep Cutler, don’t keep Cutler, but this needed to be done. Following the above, I think the best plan would have been to first cut Cutler, then suck in 2015, getting a high pick in 2016, then draft your QB of the future (e.g. Wentz). Here’s another plan: Trade up and get Mariota in 2015. The price was high, but by this point in time, Mariota has 3 years of experience and you’re building around him instead of doing it 2 years later with Trubisky. Or, here’s another plan: Keep Cutler, but use one of your three 4th round picks in 2016 to draft a QB, namely, Dak Prescott. Either way, you have to make a plan for the succession of the most important position in sports, and Pace totally didn’t for two years, which has set the team back by two years.

Hindsight factor: 20%. Anyone who says "Oh sure, NOW you say to draft Prescott" is missing the point. Prior to the 2016 draft, there was much speculation that the Bears would draft a QB. As I was following the draft on The Score as it unfolded, there was speculation the Bears would use one of their three 4th round picks on a QB. The fact is, there was at least one really talented QB to get there in Prescott, and another fact is, Deon Bush was never worth the pick there and I said so at the time. I was vexed that the draft went by with still no young QB in the pipeline. Brad Biggs has written for years that the Bears should have moved on from Cutler sooner. Instead, they stuck with him, right up until they didn’t, but had no succession plan for him, forcing them to overpay for Mike Glennon. That’s on Pace. That’s a massive mistake. Even if they were committed to moving forward with Cutler, Pace had to start planning for Cutler’s succession. Instead, one down year from Cutler and the Bears cut him, meaning they weren’t committed to moving forward with Cutler, all the more reason they should have drafted a successor. This isn’t 20/20 hindsight to say they should have drafted someone. They had time, they had picks, they had the need, and everyone knew it.

6. Trade or re-sign Alshon Jefferey instead of franchise tagging him. He and the Bears were reportedly $2-3MM per year apart. You give it to him. You recognize that you have very few good players to build with and very few players worth spending on, and you don’t plan to spend big in FA to rebuild anyways. So, you up the offer to what he says he wants, $15-16MM per year or whatever, and structure a 4-year contract so that you can get out of it after 2-3 years if he’s unable to remain healthy. Let’s say it had to be for 3 years, or there would be huge penalties to cutting him. Then this next year would be the final year we’d be "stuck with him" before we could move on. That’s the worst case, and it’s not like it would hamstring our future or cripple our cap space, so I’m not sure why there is such resistance towards "overpaying him" when we have over $40MM in cap space, nobody to spend it on, and the team is horrible. It’s not my money, and wouldn’t have prevented the team from doing anything it has done.

If you up the offer and Alshon still refuses because "he never wanted to be here," as some claim, then you trade his rights for whatever you can get, probably a solid pick for a still young, highly talented player. Again, Pace got caught in between, and ended up watching one of his most talented players leave for nothing. That’s misplaying his hand at best, and an egregious mistake at worst.

Hindsight factor: 50%. This was another tough one, one that I think split the WCG community fairly evenly, and one that I wasn't sure about what to do at the time. While I could have told you without any hindsight not to let him go for nothing, I couldn't come up with the exact plan I'm including here without the full benefit of hindsight. I didn't necessarily disagree with Pace for franchising Alshon, nor for not being sure following a PEDs suspension. But following FA, I was very disappointed with Pace's attempt to replace him with Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright, so I didn't have to wait until now, or even week one, to tell you his plan wasn't a good one.

In summary, Plan A: The long rebuild

1. Set expectations: This will take a while, and we will bottom out in 2015.
2. Cut Cutler.
3. Hire a first-time coach like Doug Pederson or Dan Quinn.
4. Draft Vic Beasley.
5. Draft either Mariota (in that case, not Beasley) or Wentz (because you bottomed out and have a higher pick now)
6. Re-sign Alshon, or you could also trade him in this scenario.
7. Keep all of your draft picks. Don't trade a pick for Khari Lee, just accept sucking for a year.

Plan B: The quick rebuild

1. Talk about a quick rebuild.
2. Commit to Cutler.
3. Hire John Fox.
4. Draft Vic Beasley (still).
5. Draft Dak Prescott with a 4th round pick.
6. Re-sign Alshon.
7. Trade a 6th round pick for Khari Lee.
8. Hang onto Matt Forte (at a reduce price), Marty Bennett, Matt Slauson, Jordan Mills, Robbie Gould, maybe even Jermon Bushrod. Recognize that almost all of the team's problems are on defense and focus your rebuilding efforts there. Use later picks to succeed the names I just mentioned (like they did in Forte's case, but Langford didn't work out). Bennett looks like something of a knucklehead now, but if you're going for the quick fix, keeping him is part of how you do it.

Plan C: Start a quick rebuild, sort of, then change your mind

1. Talk about a quick rebuild.
2. Neither cut nor commit to Cutler.
3. Hire John Fox.
4. Draft Kevin White.
5. Neglect a QB succession plan, then pay Mike Glennon $18MM to be that.
6. Neither sign nor trade Alshon Jeffery and let him go for nothing.
7. Trade a 6th rounder for Khari Lee, same thing you get back for Marty Bennett.
8. Along with Bennett, get rid of Forte, Slauson, Mills and Gould, creating new needs on a team already full of them, and create a rebuild job on offense to match the one you inherited on defense.

So, let's not cry a river for Ryan Pace because there was nothing he could do. There are many things he could have done differently, and several of them were pretty darn obvious, IMO. He inherited a tough job, no question about that, but nearly all new GMs do. If Nagy and Trubisky succeed, then all is forgiven, but this track record of decision making leaves me less than confident. Regardless, Pace needs to make better decisions moving forward, or "the cupboard was bare after Angelo and Emery" will include "and Pace".

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.