Now that the FA quarterback market has made all the relevant moves, I thought I would follow up now before the draft. I've noted how each prediction is doing thus far.
New England Patriots Tom Brady / Luke Falk Thus far Correct
The easy one first. Brady is still the man and there is no end in sight. However, New England's options, should something happen to the golden one, dried up with Garoppolo gone. Falk was a high comp % guy in a spread offense. He should at least have some game management skills but could be something with grooming.
Still just Brady and Hoyer in NE. Rumors said they offered McCarron something after it looked like his market had dried up. I'm certain they'll get a QB somewhere in the draft.
Buffalo Bills Nathan Peterman / Josh Allen Half Wrong (McCarron is the starter, we'll see about draft)
Buffalo is having trouble hiding its interest in Allen. They have a lot of bargaining power with their #21 and #22 picks. They use those 2 and a bit more to trade up with Denver at #5. Peterman would enter camp as the starter and they would do well to keep him there as long as possible because Allen will need a lot of development.
Buffalo didn't charge into the QB race because they are all in on a trade up for a draftee at the position this year. McCarron's deal was plenty affordable and provides an option if things don't turn out as they want them to.
Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill Thus far Correct
Miami is currently trying to fool front offices into believing they have heavy interest in Baker Mayfield. It's a good ploy, as he could fall to #11 and that is the frame where moves for QBs happened last draft. Adam Gase called Tannehill the 2018 starter before the offseason even came about. They're comfortable with Matt Moore as a backup too.
So far this looks like the case. Miami sought to improve their o-line alone.
New York Jets Josh McCown / Josh Rosen 1/3 Wrong (Bridgewater is #2, we'll see about the draft)
McCown has always been so underappreciated. NY recognized what he brings last year and with his very inexpensive contract and familiarity, they bring him back. Josh Rosen is the heir apparent and the last of the top 4 QBs taken In the top 6 picks of the draft.
I expected Bridgewater would be a backup but I didn't favor NYJ as the landing spot. They did stick with McCown after Cousins shunned them. Both QBs got 1 year deals so a top QB pick is still very much on the table.
Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisburger Thus far Correct
They might add a QB in the draft, but Big Ben isn't going anywhere and whomever they add would likely be inconsequential.
Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco Thus far Correct
Baltimore is paying him too much to just walk away now. Even cutting him in 2019 would lead to a $16M dead cap hit. It's similar to the handcuff the Bears experienced with Cutler. If 2018 is another down year for Flacco, 2019 will be the year to draft for the future.
Cincinnati Bengals Andy Dalton Thus far Correct
McCarron won his arbitration so he is leaving. Dalton had somes awful stretches this season, but ultimately his play finished about the way he always does; just average. Dalton's dead cap is only $2.4M in 2018 and nothing in 2019. They might add a QB in the 2nd or 3rd but Dalton is still the man.
Cleveland Browns Sam Bradford / Baker Mayfield Wrong (Taylor is the starter)
Cleveland finally uses one of its two top-5 picks to add a blue chip QB. They are also loaded with cap space. Bradford is going to have difficulties finding any more than a 1 year deal because of the fears behind his mysterious and lingering knee injury. The Browns like Baker and his fiery spirit. Combining him with #1 overall pick Saquon Barkley create a difficult backfield to catch up to.
A surprise here. I mentioned that Taylor deserved better than a backup role and I do think that he is a good get for them. I would change my prediction to Darnold at #1 overall here as the contract for Carlos Hyde now makes Saquon Barkley the unlikely draftee there.
Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles / Lamar Jackson Thus far Correct
Bortles' 90/64 td:int ratio is solid, but he fumbles about 10 times a season too. His comp % is low and film study doesn't give you a favorable impression. He is better than he is characterized though. Jax picked up his 5th year option. Adding Jackson in the 2nd gives the team either an option to take in 2018 or another direction to take in 2019. Lamar could provide the kind of electricity Watson gave to Houston (without an injury history).
Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota Thus far Correct
No surprises here. Mariota has some things to work on, and he certainly experienced a down season, but his talent is still clear. The Titans should be planning to extend him before 2019 unless something catastrophic takes place.
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck Thus far Correct
I think he'll be back, even though he isn't even throwing yet. Indy can't budge his contract anyway. In the worst case scenario they have to again turn to Jacoby Brissett, but I think Luck gets to throwing before the draft and the Colts take the chance that Luck returns eventually if not to begin the season.
Houston Texans Deshaun Watson / Tyrod Taylor Wrong (prediction was for the backup)
Clearly the Texans want/need Watson back. Taylor deserves another shot as a starter, but he is viewed behind guys like Cousins and McCarron. Teams will be more interested in a short-term bridge starter to give their early drafted QB some time to learn. Houston needs an insurance policy if Watson takes on another injury and Taylor can run the same style of offense.
Not sure who will actually backup Watson but with his injuries, it would be a good idea for Houston to get someone who could win games in a pinch. I'm thinking Geno Smith could be the guy.
Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes Thus far Correct
This is a clear one. Moving on from Smith has paved the way.
Los Angeles Chargers Phillip Rivers / Mason Rudolph Thus far Correct
Rivers is 36 years old but he had a solid 2017. He is also on the books through 2019. They could do with some youth at the position and Cardale Jones just hasn't shown he is capable. Rudolph can be had in the second round and comps pretty well with Rivers.
Oakland Raiders Derek Carr Thus far Correct
Not much to say here. 2017 was a dip in success but he still met the average play threshold. This position won't change for a long time for the Raiders.
Denver Broncos Case Keenum Thus far Correct
Cousins is the top target but ultimately Denver can't offer what Minnesota or the Jets can. Keenum had a good year and he can be had for reasonable starter money. They don't have to give up on Paxton Lynch yet, and they can be competitive with Keenum and their defense.
This one panned out. Denver seemed like a good destination for Cousins, but in the end, they knew they couldn't compete with MN or NYJ. They removed themselves from that competition and moved quickly on the 2nd prize in Keenum. The deal isn't long or expensive and doesn't remove them from drafting someone, but they might roll with Keenum and Lynch for at least a season.
Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz / Nick Foles Thus far Correct
The asking price for Foles is likely very high. There is also the possibility that Wentz isn't ready to go by first kickoff. The Eagles are thinking repeat and they might need the insurance policy they have in Foles despite the fact that they would lose him in 2019 with no compensation.
Foles could still be traded, but the chances are near zero. PHI got some inquiries, but the price was too high. Teams in need of a signal caller have already grabbed options elsewhere.
Dallas Cowboys Dak Prescott Thus far Correct
Sophomore slump but nothing catastrophic. Dak will start all the way through his rookie deal.
Washington Redskins Alex Smith Thus far Correct
Smith got a long term contract so he is the man for a while. Backup Colt McCoy is pretty solid too. This isn't a spectacular group but few have a far better situation.
New York Giants Eli Manning / Sam Darnold Thus far Correct (but I'm not predicting Darnold anymore)
Darnold is the first QB off the board at #2 overall. Eli probably has just one more year in him and it's likely not going to be an inspiring one. It does provide NY with an opportunity to groom an heir though. Darnold has corrections to be made in his windup and footwork and he forces turnovers because he tries to do too much. He still has loads of talent and time to hone it should pay dividends.
I'm thinking Saquon Barkley at #2 now or a slight chance of a trade down. Darnold is #1 overall to CLE in my estimation.
Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins Thus far Correct
MN just has everything it needs going for it to win this contest. Cap space, a roster ready to contend, proximity to Cousins' home, tax incentives, and others. Cousins would like a short deal so he can re-enter this ever inflating market again in his early 30's (and do so potentially having won a super bowl).
It happened. Pretty much as described.
Detroit Lions Matt Stafford Thus far Correct
No comment needed.
Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers Thus far Correct
This team lives and dies by this guy. They simply accept mediocrity if he takes on injury.
Chicago Bears Mitchell Trubisky Thus far Correct (many were speculating Daniel as #2)
The future. I'm not sure who will back up Trubisky but it won't matter much.
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees / Teddy Bridgewater Wrong (prediction was for the backup)
Brees is pushing 40 but played terrific last year. NO is looking to give him a short, maybe just 1 year, deal. The team has a lot of young talent that is going to outlast Brees. Bridgewater would like a starting role, but teams are going to find it hard to trust his health. The promise of a future starting role could draw him here and set the team up to maintain success when the transition takes place.
No one even considered Brees going anywhere else. Surprisingly, the Saints went with Tom Savage as #2. I can't imagine this precludes them from drafting a QB somewhere in the mid rounds. Clearly Brees can still play and will likely do so for the 2 years he just signed for. If they have to turn to Savage at any point, that will sure take the wind out of their sails.
Carolina Panthers Cam Newton Thus far Correct
Nothing much to say here.
Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan Thus far Correct
Ryan is a year removed from an MVP level season. He should see an extension before the 2018 year is up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston Thus far Correct
Though he had weight concerns, TB is looking for Winston to eat more W's. He isn't going anywhere though. They have talented players, but something is not working in TB.
Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff Thus far Correct
McVay/Goff season 2.
Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson Thus far Correct
Wilson was the only thing the Seahawks' offense had going for itself last year.
Arizona Cardinals AJ McCarron / Mike White Wrong (Bradford and Glennon are the guys)
Cleveland wanted him but bunged it up. Now that he is a UFA, McCarron can choose his destination. Arizona has no one signed to play QB right now. That's kind of amazing. They can double dip here to fill out the position with a mid round guy like White.
Why would anyone pay Sam Bradford so much money? Your backup option, and likely to play substantial snaps, is Mike Glennon? I think Glennon's failures effected McCarron's market, not that I think McCarron is going to play strong football, it's just a situation where a guy typically get a shot with a substantial raise. I briefly considered Bradford as an option for them, but I thought it would be for less money.
San Francisco 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo Thus far Correct
The NFL's highest paid player. SF feels set for a long time.