FanPost

Are the Bears bad at holding onto 4th quarter leads?

My name is Jonathan. I am a contributor for Cat Scratch Reader, the Panthers SB Nation site. I've been doing a deep dive into the statistics to try to find a pattern as to why the Panthers are so bad at holding onto late leads. Everything I researched came back saying that the Panthers weren't far off from the league average in many statistical categories. I started to come to the realization that maybe it's not just the Panthers that are bad at holding onto fourth quarter leads, maybe it's everyone.

To give you an idea of what I'm talking about, my numbers from the last 5 seasons say that the average drive by a team leading in the 4th quarter goes for 23.6 yards and produces 1.61 points. The average drive by a team trailing in the 4th quarter goes for 35.6 yards and produces 2.03 points. To account for blowouts, here’s the breakdown given different point differentials:

With a one possession lead in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 25.8 yards and produces 1.65 points.
With a one possession deficit in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 33.9 yards and produces 1.99 points.

With a two possession lead in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 22.3 yards and produces 1.72 points.
With a two possession deficit in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 37.1 yards and produces 2.05 points.

With a three or more possession lead in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 20.5 yards and produces 1.40 points.
With a three or more possession deficit in the 4th quarter, the average NFL drive goes for 36.9 yards and produces 2.10 points.

Given all that, I'm going to every NFL SB Nation site to gather fans’ opinions to see if fan perception matches what my statistics say.

Also, if anyone is interested, I can give you some statistics about the Bears and what their 4th quarter drive statistics look like.



This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.