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A Study in Pass Rush

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EDITOR: Two things... 1) Congrats on the front page bump and 2) This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.

A Study in Pass Rush

The Mystery of the Missing Sacks

A rather peculiar thing is taking place in the City of Broad Shoulders of late, my dear Watson. A defense once in ruins, has been returned to respectability... yet remains somehow, incomplete. Could it be the defensive backs? Two corner backs solid in coverage and one of the best young safety duos in the league. Not the defensive backs. Could it be the line? A solid if unspectacular run stopping nose tackle, a fairly legit pass rushing defensive end, and two talented young players looking to make an impact. Not exactly a strength, nor is it a weakness. Not the line. Could it be the inside linebackers? A solid veteran who flashes playmaking ability, and a hyper athletic 2018 top 10 pick. Not the inside linebackers.

By simple deduction, you see, that leaves us with one possibility. Outside linebacker. There we have a talented, if oft injured chap by the name of Leonard Floyd. Beyond him we have... nothing much of note I'm afraid. Aaron Lynch is two years removed from relevance, and is dealing with injury. Sam Acho, while a welcome veteran presence, is unlikely to strike fear in the hearts of many Qbs either. Isaiah Irving flashed at times this preseason, as did Kylie Fitts and Bilal Nichols, but none look ready to step up opposite Floyd (if or when he's healthy). There truly is a ghastly hole in that position group, even in those rare occasions that Leonard Floyd is on the field.

There is a scarlet thread of missing pass rush running through the colorless skein of Chicago, and our duty is to unravel it, isolate it, and expose every inch of it. First though, we must ask, how important is outside pass rush to an otherwise good defense? The answer, I'm afraid, is dreadfully important. The pass rush is the beating heart that drives a defense. Beyond the sacks which generate longer fields for opposing offenses, getting consistent pressure on the quarterback conversely takes pressure off your defensive backs. They don't have to cover as long, and it often forces the ball to be thrown before the play has developed, or forces the offense to settle for short underneath throws, which are made more difficult when you have athletic inside linebackers. This leads to more turn overs, less yards per play, and takes some pressure off your defensive line allowing them to more easily fill gaps to shut down the run game, or rush the passer themselves. In short, getting consistent outside pass rush makes every other part of your defense better, and the mere ability to do so makes your defense more unpredictable.

The Game is Afoot!

Now that we have laid bare the defensive weakness in this Second City, as well as the importance of said weakness, it is time we deduce the best course of action to address this glaring inadequacy. However, to do so, we must have data! For what good is deductive reasoning without the data with which to reason with, dear Watson? Let us peruse the options available to fill this hole, shall we?

First, we will cover the most promising options already in this towering gotham we call The Windy City:

Kylie Fitts – 23, 6th round rookie. Produced 7 sacks and 4 forced fumbles in 2015, but dealt with injuries in 2016 and 2017 causing him to slide in the draft. Tied for second on the team for pre-season sacks at 2. Talented, but lacking in length and likely raw at the professional level.

Diagnosis: May be viable in the future, but not yet ready. Currently suitable for depth.

Isaiah Irving – 24, undrafted free agent in 2017. Had 7 sacks his senior year at San Jose State, and currently tied for second on the team for pre-season sacks at 2. Perhaps slightly undersized at 6'2" 254 lbs. Still raw at the NFL level.

Diagnosis: Not ready. Currently suitable for depth.

Next, we shall cover options available on the free agent market:

Willie Young – 33 next month, 8 year veteran. Has familiarity with the scheme, having been with the team the past 4 years. Productive between 2014 and 2016, averaging 8 sacks per year. Knee issues and advancing age possibly slowing production. Likely affordable.

Diagnosis: No longer viable, but could be useful as veteran depth.

Ahmad Brooks – 34, 12 year veteran. Historically a 6 sack player, but used primarily in run support by the dreaded cheese packers of the north in 2017, producing only 1.5 sacks. With father time ultimately undefeated, his moments as a productive pass rusher may be gone. Has familiarity with the scheme, having served under Vic Fangio in San Francisco for 4 years, averaging 7 sacks per season.

Diagnosis: No Longer viable.

Shea McClellin – 29, Surely I jest.

Kevin Dodd – 26, 2nd round pick by the Titans in 2016. Little to no production in his NFL career, playing in 18 games, starting 1 and tallying 9 tackles and just 1 sack. Had 12 sacks and 46 pressures his senior year at Clemson, so the potential seems to be there. On the large side for an outside linebacker. Has more of a defensive end frame at 6'5" 277 lbs, which isn't surprising considering it is the position he played at university. Was having some kind of dispute with his former team, causing him to not report, which resulted in his release. Likely affordable given his lack of NFL production.

Diagnosis: Intriguing prospect worth looking at, but highly unlikely to produce this year.

Now, friend Watson, we shall cover options that may be available via inter-team trade:

Andre Branch – 29, 7 year veteran of two Florida teams. Currently listed as a 4-3 defensive end, but presumably could be able to make the switch to 3-4 outside linebacker at 6'5" 258 lbs. Averages 4 sacks per year, but has tallied as many as 6 in a rotational role with the Jaguars of Jacksonville in 2013. Potential cut for Miami, so could be had affordably by trade. A late round pick would likely suffice. Conversely, one could wait and see if he's cut outright and acquire him on the free agent market at a discount rate.

Diagnosis: Likely only suitable for depth, but could be useful in a pinch.

Dante Fowler – 24, top 3 pick in 2015 by Jacksonville. Produced 8 sacks last year in a rotational role. Currently listed as a 4-3 defensive end, but played 3-4 outside linebacker at university. Smooth transition likely. The Jaguars did not pick up his 5th year option, and he is currently sitting 3rd on their depth chart. It is most likely that they shan’t be able to afford his contract next year, as they have a kings ransom committed to their other defensive players. Has had disciplinary issues of late, having been suspended for engaging in fisticuffs durring a recent practice. Obviously a high upside player with the potential to thrive in a starting role. Fairly good chance the Jaguars would be willing to part with him for the right price. A deal could possibly be done for a 4th or 5th round pick.

Diagnosis: Intriguing prospect. High upside, 1st round pedigree, productive in a rotational role last season. Could be an immediate and relatively affordable answer for our missing pass rush.

Khalil Mack – 27, top 5 pick in 2014 by Oakland. A name you are surely familiar with. 3 Pro Bowls, 2 time All-Pro, NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2016, 40.5 sacks over a 4 year career. Considered one of the best pass rushers in professional football today, and is in the prime of his career. Currently in a contract dispute with his organization, and as such may be available for trade. The price, however, would be substantial. On top of the $20 million per year he is likely to command, it will take a treasure trove of high draft picks to secure his valuable services. A pair of 1st round selections is a distinct possibility.

Diagnosis: An All-Pro edge player who would instantly fill the pass rush need and potentially catapult this already respectable defense into being a top 5 unit. Expensive, but likely worth it.

When You Have Eliminated the Impossible...

As you can see, Watson, there are pass rush options to be had. Fitts, Irving and Dodd could be valuable contributors in the future, though each come with an amount of uncertainty. There are also options in the 2019 Draft such as Nick Bosa and Josh Allen, but that's 8 months away and carries with it uncertainty as well. However, if you wish to deal with the issue this season rather than living with it for at least another year, Fowler and Mack appear to be the only viable answers.

Assuming there is urgency to address this need, let us deduce which option represents the best course of action for our intrepid team, shall we?

Mack is clearly the better player, but also carries with him a greater cost. Fowler, while talented, is unlikely to ever be the dominant player Mack currently is. He is, however, likely to be significantly more affordable. The Bears currently have $23.6 million in cap space available to them in 2018 (currently $36.7 million in 2019), and a number of prominent players on affordable rookie deals for at least the next 3 seasons. Cap space wise, they can afford Mack. It would however, make upcoming extensions somewhat more difficult to negotiate. That said, giving up multiple 1st round picks, while potentially worth it considering the caliber of player and likely impact to the team, is a steep price to pay. Especially for a team that prefers to build through the draft, and has needs on offense that could be addressed with those picks.

Fowler on the other hand, would likely be much more affordable, both contract wise, and in draft capital to secure him. His impact on the team, while likely not as significant as Mack's, should still be quite consequential. Additionally, he is only 24, and may not have reached his true potential as of yet. Given a chance to start, a creative Defensive Coordinator and a drive to succeed, he could be just what the Bears need to propel their defense to the next echelon, and enter win now mode at a cost that doesn't mortgage away the future.

At the end of the day, Watson, either Mack or Fowler would make great additions to this team, and both would ultimately be worth their cost. However, having followed this scarlet thread to it's ultimate end, given all the data we've collected and weighing the cost and benefits represented, we are left with one, undeniable conclusion...

If missing pass rush is the problem, then Dante Fowler is the solution. And it was quite elementary, my dear Watson. Quite elementary indeed.

Thread Laid bare

Thanks to anyone who managed to get through this long winded, self indulgent exercise I just posted! I've been a proponent of the Bears working a trade for Khalil Mack since word broke that he could be on the trade block. Mostly because I'm a firm believer that improving your pass rush is the single best way to improve every other part of your defense. However, I decided last night to really dive into the options for improving the Bears pass rush, and try to evaluate the them objectively. So I did. And what I came up with surprised me a bit. So, I decided to work up a "little" fan post on the subject, and just for fun, I figured I'd frame it as a Sherlock Holmes investigation. Why? I don't know. Could be the booze. Could be that there's just something wrong with my brain. It's a mystery for the ages.

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed it, and if you have anything to add to the conversation I just had with myself, post it in the comments. Oh, and Bear Down!

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.