The popular online gambling site Bovada has revealed a new set of over and under prop bets for the NFL. You can check them out in the link above, but I wanted to highlight their Chicago Bears’ props for 2018.
I’ll run down the list and give my take for each one now that we’ve seen most of the preseason.
Mitchell Trubisky over/under
Passing yards: 3,500
Passing touchdowns: 19
If Trubisky plays all sixteen games I’m taking the over on each of these. The new weapons on offense and coaching regime will ensure Trubisky has plenty of chances to eclipse all three numbers. Think of the yardage number like this: he’d have to average 219 yards per game to get more than 3,500 yards on the season. In last year’s system, he averaged 183 yards per game. Are the offensive upgrades worth 36 yards per game more? I think they are.
I think the touchdowns will be a byproduct of the new scheme and weapons too, but also because of more opportunity. The same for the interceptions. While I would hope Trubisky is under on the picks, he’s still a young quarterback and those guys are prone to make a youthful mistake from time to time.
Jordan Howard over/under
Rushing yards: 1,200
Rushing and receiving touchdowns: 8.5
I’ll take the under on the rushing yards, and the over on the number of touchdowns. Even though I’m going under on yards, I think Howard will be back to averaging around five yards per carry like he did as a rookie in 2016. He had nine rushing touchdowns last year, and I think he could get the same in 2018.
Tarik Cohen over/under
Combined rushing and receiving yards: 775
Total rushing, receiving and return TDs: 4.5
This is a tough one because we haven’t seen how head coach Matt Nagy plans to use Cohen yet. In training camp, Cohen was all over the offense, but so was Taylor Gabriel. Last year’s total offensive yards for Cohen was 723 yards. He’s bulked up a bit this year, so I think he may get more than the 87 rushing attempts as a rookie. I’ll take the over.
Cohen also had four total touchdowns in 2017: can Nagy squeeze one more out of him in 2018? I think so. Give me the over there too.
Allen Robinson over/under
Receiving yards: 950
Receiving touchdowns: 6
A healthy Robinson certainly has the potential to fly past those numbers, but I have a feeling it may take a few weeks for his presence to show up in the offense. It seems like the plan is for this to be a tight end-centric offense, and for that I’m going under on both of these figures. That’s not to disvalue the importance Robinson will have to the offense. I just think with so many other weapons his numbers may be lower than we think.
Trey Burton over/under
Receiving yards: 600
Receiving touchdowns: 5
Since I believe the tight ends will play a major part in this offense, give me the over on both of these. Burton will be the ultimate chess piece as Nagy’s “U” tight end.
Leonard Floyd over/under
Total sacks: 5.5
This prediction is completely based on Floyd finally being able to get through a full season in his third year. If he does, I think he hits the over. His technique has improved each off-season, and health is all that’s holding him back from breaking out and dominating.
Akiem Hicks over/under
Total sacks: 7.5
If the Bears can keep Hicks fresh in 2018 and give him ample rest when needed, I think he surpasses his career high of 8.5 sacks from 2017.