One of our two sharps finally bit the dust in the survivor pool. That’s right, Sam made it all the way to week 10 before getting bounced last week on the Saints.
He wasn’t alone in his loss, six others picked the Saints and were eliminated. Indianapolis further eliminated another three pickers. Just when you think you have this league figured out...
Indy and New Orleans were so popular that only four of the 15 left standing got their pick right. Pat is the last one standing without a strike, two picked up their first strike and 10 picked up their second strike.
In the pick ‘ems, WhiteH2O is still leading with 78 points, with Lester right on his heels with Monster Hicks Picks and t4m8shn. Sam lurks in eighth place with 70 points.
Last week, Sam went 2-0 on the Bears -2.5 and the under, while Jeff tried to zag from his zigs and went against the Bears and was bit. He was right on the under though.
Bears at Rams (-6.5) O/U 40.5
Sunday, 7:20 p.m., NBC
Sam: Jeff, I feel bad, you have been so faithful picking the Bears seemingly every week and then the one time you go against them, they come through and win.
Such is life in gambling I suppose.
This week is a stay away game for many sharps, but we’re going to pick it anyway. The line kind of stinks, with the Rams laying 6.5 points in a season when they’ve struggled about as much as the Bears. Chicago plays most of their games close though, so it’s difficult to say that can’t keep it close.
That said, the Rams are 6-3 against the spread this season and are the fourth most profitable team in the NFL this year, according to The Action Network.
The Bears, on the other hand, are 3-6 ATS. They’ve only covered one game on the road this season too, way back in week three in Washington.
I don’t know why, but I am feeling like this one is going to get away from the Bears. I just feel like this season has constantly been a half step forward and three back. There was some signs forward on offense last week, so this week, in primetime against a tough defense, everything must go to hell, right?
I’ll take the Rams -6.5 and the under. Even if it’s a blowout, it won’t be so lopsided, the Bears defense is still pretty good.
I’m obviously eliminated in the survivor pool, so take it with a grain of salt, but I’d look at the Panthers hosting the Falcons. Yes, even after last week, I think the Panthers get back on track and the Falcons fold back up.
Picks: Rams -6.5, under 40.5
Jeff: STOP THE PRESSES! I went back into the column on Sunday morning and changed my pick to the Bears in the comment section - time stamped and everything. I think I get credit for that, right? Yes, mostly it was because of Matthew Stafford getting ruled out but I did come around to a Bears W at the end. We’ll send it to the judges.
Two really good defenses playing two struggling offenses - this game is begging us to take the Under. It’s not even the lowest o/u of the week - yeah, I don’t see this thing going into the 20’s. How did this game not get flexed out for the Texans - Ravens again? You’re welcome, America...
As for the game, 6.5 is simply too much for me. I don’t know that the Bears can pull this one off but I think they keep it close. No way do I think the Rams deserve a TD spread after their struggles. Goff and Trubisky may not light it up, but I can’t see the Rams pulling away.
I took my second strike in the survivor pool with the Saints at home against the 1-7 Falcons because, football. So, silver linings here - I beat Sam in something!
I’m rolling with the Raiders to beat the Bengals. I think the Panthers have other match ups down the way I like so I’ll save them. Obviously, saving teams at this point might be stupid since I’m down to my last strike but do we really think the Bengals can win a road game at this point? Me either.
Picks: Bears +6.5, under 40.5, Raiders (survivor)
What are your best bets of the week? Join in on the comments or find us on Twitter @samhouseholder and @gridironborn.