Last week Sam and Jeff were on opposite sides of the spread again and once again Sam came out on top.
The Bears lost getting 6.5 on the road in Los Angeles, although if their kicker was worth his salt it would’ve been fine. We can argue about a bad beat later.
The under came through for the seventh time this season.
In the survivor pool we lost just two people, one of which was Lester, who was on the Panthers. No one else picked up so much as a strike as the pool narrows to 13. Oakland was the majority pick last week with one person choosing Dallas and another two picking Minnesota.
In the pick ‘em pool, White2O holds on to his one-point lead. Sam and Jeff sit in seventh and eighth place also separated by a point.
It’s getting to be crunch season for teams, so the stakes are higher and other teams are fighting for playoff seeding and their playoff lives. Shame Chicago isn’t one of those. Neither is their opponent this week.
Bears (-6) vs. Giants (O/U 40.5)
Sam: Last season the Bears went to New York and dropped a crazy game that featured several trick plays, but the Bears were playing with their back up QB. This year, they’ll have Mitch, despite him being “hurt” last week, but we’re not here to get into that!
The Bears and Giants are an equal 3-7 against the spread this year and Chicago is 2-3 at home against the number. New York is 2-3 ATS on the road this season.
Chicago hasn’t covered as a favorite the last two times they were favored against the Giants. The Bears have been in just four games all season that were decided by more than one score (at Washington week 4, vs. Vikings week 5, vs. Saints week 8, at Rams week 12) and five that were decided by more than six points.
On the other hand, they have taken advantage of bad defenses when they play them. The Giants have the 25th ranked pass defense and overall rank 30th in points allowed. The Bears have scored more than 20 points against Washington (22nd point allowed, 16th passing), Oakland (21st, 27th) and Lions (27th, 30th) (Note that I don’t count New Orleans because that was all in garbage time).
So looking at that, I actually expect that the Bears will put up some points. I think that the defense will get some takeaways against the 31st ranked offense in turnovers.
While I don’t feel good about it, I think the play here is Chicago. But even just typing that makes me worried about it. Yikes.
Also go with the under, it’s been the play all year and this should be no different. Last year was a somewhat fluky game with lots of big plays, I expect the defense to really play tight against Saquon Barkley.
I’m so out of the survivor pool, does it really even matter who I’d pick? If I had a play it’d be Cleveland over Miami.
Since I’m out of the survivor, I will give you all an extra play just for you-know-whats-and giggles: I love the Ravens -3 against the Rams. The Rams we saw last week were begging for a competent team to take the game away from them and the Bears politely declined. The Ravens aren’t going to do that.
Picks: Bears -6, under 40.5, Ravens -3, Cleveland (survivor)
Jeff: I AM THE ULTIMATE SURVIVOR! Wait, I mean, I’m the last writer standing. Eh, good enough. Lester went down in the pool last week, meaning I’m the last writer standing and I’m looking at a rough week of picks ahead of me. Do I take Cleveland against Miami at home? That game looked like a sure thing in August. Now... it’s at least close. Do I take the Bears at home despite the offensive woes against a sad Giants squad? Do I get a little frisky and take a banged up Detroit squad on the road in Washington? If no one fans enter that stadium to witness the game, did it really even happen?
Anyway, I’m deciding between those three teams right now and I’ll likely change my pick a few times before Sunday. The biggest advantage to playing the Bears now is that I can use the Browns two weeks from now against the Bengals. But I’m down to my last strike and I have to take the best team every week! Good luck to the other dozen remaining.
As far as the Bears covering the spread go, I am siding with Sam this week, which probably means that Sam is wrong. I think the under has been the safe bet all year with this team. We all know why - the defense is good, the offense is bad. Some of you were able to put on some special glasses and see some positives from the offense last week. I am still waiting for those glasses to be delivered but what I do believe in is just how bad this Giants defense looks this year. The last time Mitchell Trubisky played a defense this bad, he had his lone bright spot on the season in Washington. I predicted on Bears Over Beers this week that the Bears would win comfortably, by ten points or so, but it wasn’t going to be a game that made you feel great.
Picks: Bears -6, under 40.5, Bears or Browns (Survivor)
What are your best bets of the week? Add yours in the comments below or find us on Twitter @samhouseholder and @gridironborn