FanPost

Trubisky: What Could Have Been

In 2005, the Green Bay Packers selected Aaron Rodgers with the 24th pick in the 1st round. It was an oddity that he was available, considering he was in a 50/50 tossup to go #1 overall to San Fransisco. He had the athleticism and arm to warrant going that high. Watching Rodgers draft slot fall repetitively that night was an unbelievable sight. There was a point in the draft when Aaron Rodgers is visibly frustrated and lets out a HUGE sigh. It was when the Kansas City Chiefs used the 15th pick and went with LB Derrick Johnson instead of choosing to replace their 35-year-old QB in Trent Green; and it was somewhat understandable.

There were all kinds of reasons why Rodgers tumbled so far down the order. There were doubts over his size and his ability to thrive in a system outside of Cal’s. Another big knock against Rodgers were his mechanics. Ron Jaworski isolated some footage of him during draft night, explaining that his ball position meant he couldn’t throw downfield.

Scouting reports had this to say about Rodgers:

"He doesn't have great ability to change the release of the football. He's mechanically very rigid."

"Strong arm. Pretty good athlete. Still has some holes in his game."

"He's a system quarterback. 3-, 5-, 7-step guy. Can't create on his own. Panics under pressure. Gets flustered easy."

Andrew Brandt, Packers VP of player finance at the time said that "there were over a thousand people at our draft party downstairs, and every one of them booed when the pick was made. But he was the only player left on our board with a 1st round grade."

Issues with his release, his mechanics, and facing pressure. Good athlete with a strong arm. Any of this sounding familiar?

When placed side-by-side, Rodgers and Trubisky are almost identical college QB's. Rogers left college with 665 passing attempts, a 63.8% completion rate, 5469 yards, 43 touchdowns and 13 INT's for a QBR of 150.3. Trubisky, he finished his college career with 572 passing attempts, a 67.5% completion rate, 4762 yards, 41 touchdowns and 10INT's for a QBR of 157.6. And the scounting reports? Similar as well. Scouts had this to say about Trubisky:

"Will have to learn NFL footwork from under center which could take time. Benefits from offense loaded with RPOs (run-pass option) that pull linebackers forward and open easier throwing windows."

"He has all of the tools. I like his arm talent, arm strength, and athleticism."

"He has starting qualities and he'll go early, but he better get better at seeing blitzes and throwing hot or he'll get eaten alive by the exotic packages they are throwing at quarterbacks these days."

Summary: Issues with his release, his mechanics, and facing pressure. Good athlete with a strong arm.

So what makes two quarterbacks, who have so much in common at the college level, have such drastically different outcomes? It really comes down to 3 key pieces that fell at the right time for Rodgers, and at the wrong time for Mitch.

The first thing that went Rodgers way was being drafted at 24. In the words of Bill Polian, "there were so many teams that had a QB, couldn’t afford a QB (this was before the rookie wage scale), or couldn’t afford to have a rookie QB take the time to develop because they were in the hot seat." Because of this perfect storm, Rodgers falls to 24 and enjoys the benefit of being professionally developed behind future Hall of Famer Brett Favre instead of being drafted at 2 where the Dolphins were trotting out 34-year-old journeyman Gus Frerotte. Which brings us to the second thing that benefitted Rodgers, not playing. Aaron Rodgers was given a spectacular gift in being the second fiddle in Green Bay as he sits for 3 seasons and adjusts to the NFL game. Meanwhile his counterpart, Alex Smith, looked like a deer caught in the headlights in San Fransisco as he went on to throw only 1 touchdown to 11 interceptions in his first 7 games as a starter. Smith showed little to no improvement in his next two seasons as a full-time starter as well. In fact, after his first 3 seasons as a pro, he posted a career stat line of 19 TD’s, 31 INT’s, a QBR of 57.6, and was sacked 81 times. After missing his 4th season due to injury, and four more grueling seasons with 4 different coaches, he was traded to the Chiefs for a second-round pick. There he enjoyed a resurgence to his career with stability at the head coaching position. Which is the third and final piece of the puzzle. Stability. Right now Mitch Trubisky is playing scared. He doesn’t see the field – which was a strength of his coming out of college. And all of these issues fall to two people, Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy.

Ryan Pace had no business moving up for Trubisky. He could have, and should have, waited and dropped back to pick his man. Even if no one calls for the #3 pick, Mitch doesn’t experience the same level of pressure as a man who the future was traded for. Pace doomed Mitch from the start. Mitch needed room to grow into an NFL QB and he did the worst – traded up to get him, to sit behind a travesty at QB, to play for a coach who was on the hot seat. It is my personal opinion that Pace outsmarted himself and thought he found an Aaron Rodgers and wasn't going to pass on him like Gruden did in 2005. Unfortunately Pace had none of the three desired conditions that the Packers had at the time. Further still, Pace brought in Nagy to develop the young man and instead has turned him in to a shell shocked passer who is just looking for room to breathe. Trubisky has never lacked the talent or ability to become an NFL starter. He has simply been mishandled, much like Alex Smith. And like Alex Smith, he NEEDS to be shipped out to greener pastures where he can land as a backup who could play into an effective starter if he isn't too far gone. But with him needs to go Pace and Nagy who have failed at the most critical of positions at the most critical of times.

And before you cast this opinion to the wind, let me quote Andrew Brandt one final time. In a recent interview he was asked a very pointed question. If Aaron Rodgers went number 1 to the 49ers, would he have found success in the NFL. Brandt had a quick response, "No. Backing up Brett helped. He hated it, but it helped rather than being thrown in to whatever was going on in San Fransisco." Pace probably made the right call and had found the next Rodgers in Trubisky, but at the wrong time and in the wrong situation. To think what could have been had Pace been more patient in his approach.

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.