Short week, gotta get back at it. Sunday saw Jeff and Sam take a loss on the spread thanks to that bad beat of a 4th and 18 desperation heave TD from Daniel Jones.
At least the under came through, again, to give the guys a .500 day.
Jeff’s survivor pick of the Bears also came through for him, although he had to sweat it out more than he would’ve liked. Elsewhere in the pool, two were eliminated on the Lions (come on, never trust the Lions!), while the only other strike was taken on someone who didn’t make their pick (again, c’mon man, it’s week 13).
In the Pick ‘em league, the Boss Man, Lester Wiltfong Jr., has a share of the lead at 93-81! After a rough start, Lester has steadily climbed the rankings to reach the top after 12 weeks. Can he keep it going and win the league? Jeff and Sam probably won’t be able to catch him as Jeff is back in 7th place, trying to get above water, while Sam is another two games back in 10th.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Detroit Lions (O/U 39)
Thursday, 11:30 a.m. CT, FOX
Sam: I feel like we were just here, not just for the picks, but for the Lions. It’s been only two weeks between the meetings, so it really hasn’t been too long.
This is a tough one to pick though, the early Thanksgiving game is always a sleepy affair, as the teams just played three days earlier and are starting at a weird time. The under is again the safe play, really just hammer that until it doesn’t work more than two times in a row.
As for the spread, this game opened Detroit -1, was quickly bet to Chicago -1 and then when word got out that Jeff Driskel was hurt the Bears jumped to -2.5. In fact, by the time this is published, the line might have jumped again.
The Bears have been brutal against the number this year (ahem, Sunday, ahem), but again, like I wrote two weeks ago, he’s now 8-1 ATS in division games and 7-2 outright. I think the Bears have to be excited to have two bad defenses back-to-back for the first time this year and excited to keep whatever slight momentum they’ve had going.
So, I am taking the Bears -2.5 God help me though, because I have no faith in that. This is strongly factoring that David Blough may be starting for Detroit. I wouldn’t lay any more points with Chicago though, so be weary my friends.
Despite being eliminated in the survivor league, I think I’m still required to pick one, so I guess I will, oh God, **gags** ugh, I don’t know if I can say it, **hacks** take the team from the north against the lowly Giants. Green Bay might be frauds, but that Giants team is not exposing them this week. Expect them to bounce back in the Big Apple.
I burned the Eagle early in the year or I would take them, but they’re super banged up, so do you really feel good about them? Carolina against Washington is also deserves a look.
As I write this my bonus handout of Ravens -3 is looking good (21-3 at the 2 minute warning). So, I guess I’ll handout another: Bills +7, the numbers suggest these teams are more even than bettors believe. Both teams run the ball well and the Bills’ pass defense is no joke. I think they can keep it tight, even if they don’t win.
Picks: Bears -2.5, under 39, Green Bay (survivor), Bills +7
Jeff: Yeah, it bears repeating that Sam was ousted from the survivor league a couple weeks ago. If he was still in it, he’d know that you have to make TWO survivor picks this week. Oh, boy, it’s starting to get crazy. Not that I influence anyone’s picks, but I’m not going to reveal both of my survivor picks as long as I’m still in it. Again, I’m not paranoid, but I don’t want to reveal too much to my opponents. But, I’ll make one pick public and that is the Carolina Panthers. They’re not a great team and they might not even be a good team, but they are definitely better at Washington. Plus, they’re at home (not that it would matter playing at Washington - tickets were on sale for $4 at FedEx Field against the Lions... you can’t even FedEx a package for that price).
As for the Bears, it feels like they should be able to take care of business in this one. It’s really nice that Matthew Stafford isn’t playing because it makes this projection so much easier. I understand that Jeff Driskel didn’t look terrible in the first meeting, but getting some film on him bodes well for a quick rematch. I think this Bears defense eats his lunch and if he can’t play, well, even better.
As for the over/under, I agree with Sam that we just keep hammering it until something changes. I want to believe the Bears will roll up 40+ on their own and blow out the Lions here, but can we even dare to dream like that? Thursday games are always weird, both teams are dealing with some injury issues, and I’ll lean on what I’ve seen most of the year - good defense, bad offense, low points.
Picks: Bears -2.5, under 39, Panthers (survivor)
Hit up the comments below with your thoughts on the betting lines or your survivor lock for the week. Find us on the Twitter machine @samhouseholder and @gridironborn.