Best Bets: Bears-Chiefs, total, survivor picks and more

As we wind towards the end of the season, things aren’t getting better for our pickers.

Jeff and Same once again both missed on the spread but hit the under.

Sam had a worse week in the pick ‘ems as well, getting just five points and dropping to seventh. Jeff moved down to fifth and we all trail Lester and WhiteH2O who have 116 points. It’s going to be an interesting run into the postseason (yes we pick the postseason too), since WhiteH2O and Lester have managed to stay neck and neck for weeks now.

In the survivor pool, we have co-champions. 43-Yard Attempt and Pat both took their third strike last week (Pat on the Rams, 43-Yard on the 49ers) so they are crowned the co-champs, congrats to them.

Jeff and Sam also have pride to play for as they search for something and try to make a couple bucks off their favorite team even if they aren’t picking all that great.

Chiefs (-6) at Bears (O/U 44)

Sunday, 7:30 p.m. CT, NBC

Sam: I was at one time 8-2 against the spread picking the Bears (mostly against them, tbh). But since week 12, it’s turned and I’ve gone just 1-3.

Picking is hard though and there’s a reason I’m not a sharp.

This game is going to be particularly tough. The Bears were eliminated from the playoffs and often teams will lay down after their season ends (look at Indy on Monday night).

But the Bears have hung tough, even if they aren’t a very good team. There’s plenty to play for (Nagy vs. Reid, Trubisky vs. Mahomes).

Does that equal a win? The Chiefs have a ton to play for. They need to clinch their division (although that will likely happen earlier in the day, but they have lots of seeding implications.

My worse fear is a repeat of another Week 16 game (although that team had everything to play for and this squad doesn’t, which could be worse). Oh God, I just realized that Sunday is five years to the day of that game, which was also Sunday Night Football. **shudders** My God.

I guess we can learn a lot about Nagy then and his future.

Anyway, I only see the remotest possibility that this team will get blown out, just because it hasn’t happened before under Nagy.

In this series, which only has 10 match ups with spread data, but in those games the favorite has covered just twice and the under has also hit eight times. The two times the favorite covered it was the Chiefs. Finally, only four of their meetings were decided by more than one score.

Still though, I’m going with the Chiefs. I think there’s too much talent over there for the Bears to overcome and we saw some defensive breakdowns last week. Even if the Bears keep it close, I think the Chiefs will cover the six and win by seven at least.

I will take the under though, again, as even if the Chiefs rack up three touchdowns or more, the Bears won’t break 44. This is the highest total on the Bears this year. Lean under there.

As for other games, I mean, who has a survivor left? Aside from all the really good teams that someone would’ve already picked (49ers, Seahawks, Saints, Ravens, Patriots), I would look at Denver against Detroit and, weirdly, the Jaguars against the Falcons in a letdown spot.

Bonus pick: Philly as a road dog, the Cowboys are getting a little too much love for a team that’s 3-4 on the road. Dallas has ruled this series of late, but I think the Eagles get it back or, at least, cover.

Picks: Chiefs (-6), Under 44, Eagles +2.5, Denver (survivor)

Jeff: I hate how the Bears match up against the Chiefs and to see the line is less than a TD makes this one a rather easy selection. I’m picking against the Bears, unfortunately, because I believe the Chiefs are locked into their playoff mode, ready to make a run. If they get a little help from Buffalo, they’ll have even more to play for as they could move up into the second seed.

With Prince Amukamara ailing, an impressive stable of wide receivers running through the secondary, and reserve inside linebackers trying to cover Travis Kelce, it could be a long day for this Bears defense. Add in the fact that the Chiefs secondary has been solid as of late and it isn’t clear how well the Bears offense will be able to move the ball.

I’m glad the survivor pool is over because I think I’m up to five strikes but I’ll keep picking for fun. I’ll take Denver as well as they’re playing at home against a broken Lions team. I also have the Colts left, who are taking on a rookie QB and the disappointing Carolina Panthers. Seems like a couple of safe bets this late in the year.

Bonus pick for the week is I love the Tampa Bay - Houston over 51 points. The Bucs have been friendly to opposing offenses and have engaged in a number of high scoring affairs. Eleven of their games have combined for at least 50 points so I have a good feeling about the Texans offense providing plenty of firepower in this one.

Picks: Chiefs (-6), Under 44, Denver & Indianapolis (survivor), Tampa Bay - Houston Over 51