With more and more states entering the new world of legalized sports betting, there seems to be more regular coverage of the topic.
With the NFL still being the predominant sport to gamble on in this country, it comes as no surprise that any release of NFL odds makes some headlines.
CG Technology, a company that operates several Las Vegas sportsbooks, released NFL win totals for the 2019 season.
To no one’s surprise the New England Patriots lead the way for the fourth-straight year with a win total set at 11,
The Bears come in sixth (or fourth if you count the three teams tied at 10.5 as one) at 9.5, same as the Colts and Eagles but behind the Chargers (10), Saints, Chiefs and Rams (10.5 each). The moneyline is -110 for each, meaning a $110 bet would pay $100.
While that may seem low for a team that won 12 games, remember that the schedule looks a lot harder this season with six 2018 playoff teams on the schedule (Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints at home; Rams and Eagles on the road) plus a tough overseas road trip to play the Raiders. The NFC North is never really an easy division to play either.
So when factoring that in, along with the unknown of if the defense will take a step back (turnovers don’t typically stay consistent year to year and they have a new coordinator), it makes sense that Vegas would set the bar a little lower.
That said though, me, I’d roll with the over. I think that while the home slate is tougher, it gives them an upper hand because we’ve seen Nagy bring the homefield advantage back to the lake front and Denver, Washington and Oakland don’t look to be massively improved as far as road opponents.
Then you throw in a Lions team that doesn’t jump off the screen at you, an unknown Packers team and a Vikings squad looking to bounce back after a woeful season and it seems like there’s at least six wins, conservatively, if we’re assuming a split in the division series.
The Bears can beat the Cowboys and Chargers, but those games won’t be easy. The Giants are definitely worse than the squad that upset them on the road a year ago.
That gets you to nine wins. Obviously, the NFL is full of surprises and it isn’t out of the realm that the Bears win a couple fewer games than last year, but I would still say that the over is the better play.