Re-drafts are a fun way to pass the offseason. Most experts agree that it takes three years to get a true picture of a draft class, meaning that now is the time to take a look back at the 2016 NFL Draft.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com did just that today, looking back and shuffling up the board with the idea that teams would know what they were getting.
There weren’t too many surprises at the top, with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz going 1-2, just as they did in the real thing, but there were some surprises further down with the Browns taking Dak Prescott at No. 15.
Prescott has been good, solid and above average, but I still don’t know that he’s a QB that’s going to carry a team to a Super Bowl. Still, he’s better than what the Browns have had, until Baker Mayfield.
Whitehair would be the plug-and-play option at center instead of Nick Martin, whom they took in the second round of this draft.
Actual pick: Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame.
Whitehair, Chicago’s second round pick, has been a solid center for the Bears, although there is some chatter that he could move back to his college position of guard with James Daniels.
The other Bears-related nugget was now-former Bears RB Jordan Howard, originally a fifth round pick, found his way into the first round, No. 26 to Denver:
Denver gets a big, zone-scheme running back from Indiana with the ability to handle a heavier workload in that QB-needy offense.
Actual pick: Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis.
Howard has been very good, but would he really be a first round pick with what teams know now? It seems early for a back that doesn’t have breakaway speed, can’t be dynamic in the passing game and has had some questions about his conditioning.
I think even knowing how his game translates would put him solidly in the second round.
As for the Bears? You may remember that they originally selected Leonard Floyd, after a trade up with Tampa Bay. Floyd has turned into a solid-but-unspectacular player. The Bears think enough of him to pick up his fifth-year option even without big sack numbers.
Zierlein says in a re-do the Bears would take a different pass rusher:
Yannick Ngakoue, edge
Chicago tried to fill this spot with Leonard Floyd, but the reality is that Ngakoue has been the type of edge rusher they hoped Floyd would become.
Actual pick: Leonard Floyd, edge, Georgia.
Ngakoue went in the third round to the Jaguars, where he’s been a good pass rusher, but I’m not sure he’s a huge improvement over Floyd as an all-around player.
Yes, he has 29.5 sacks to Floyd’s 15.5 and Ngakoue has 10 forced fumbles to Floyd’s one.
I plugged them into Pro-Football-Reference’s Player Comparison and it’s actually a little closer than it appears.
Floyd has 12 more tackles, one more fumble recovery. He has 32 QB hits to Ngakoue’s 70. The Jaguar nudges ahead of Floyd in terms of TFL too with 29 to Floyd’s 23.
However, Floyd has eight passes defensed to Ngakoue’s three. Floyd also has two safeties, while Ngakoue has none.
So while Ngakoue has been a better pass rusher, the numbers suggest Floyd is better against the run and in pass coverage. With Khalil Mack across from him now, Floyd doesn’t have to be a huge sack number player.
What do you think? Would the Bears be better off with Ngakoue on their roster instead of Floyd? Would Howard be a first round pick in a re do?