Best Bets: Bears-Washington, survivor, pick ‘ems and more

We roll on with our picks, one of us has had more luck than the other, at least when it comes to the Bears.

Sam is 2-0 by picking against the Bears, not that he enjoys that. Jeff is now 0-2 against the number, having picked the Bears to cover.

In the WCG Survivor league Jeff and Sam are each 2-0 but once again had to sweat out the results with the Ravens and another furious come back by the Cardinals. The overall stats are that 31 people are still alive with zero strikes, 11 with one and six unlucky folks that have gone 0 for 2.

In the WCG Pick ‘Ems, Sam and Jeff are tied for 11th out of 31 with 14 points each. I managed to get a measly four points in week two, while Jeff has scored a decent seven each week. We’re each 14-18 overall. Shoutout to t4m8shn, who is leading the group with a 19-13 record. Yeah, picking all of the games against the spread is hard.

Let’s get to this week’s game. Washington and Chicago each have some weird trends going for them coming into the game and their series. Something’s bound to give, but there’s also a lot of sloppy, ugly games in the recent history of these squads.

Bears (-4) at Washington (O/U 41.5)

Monday, 7:15 p.m.

Sam: Coming off a big win a week ago, the Bears go on the road again, this time against an opponent they’ve had hard luck against in the recent past.

The Bears have lost seven straight in the series against Washington, going back to 2003 and are 2-13 against them since 1989.

They have won just once in Washington since 1988, in 2001. They’re 4-12 against the spread since ‘89 vs. Washington. That’s a whole lot of bad history.

Washington on the other hand, has a bad streak of their own: they are 1-15 at home on Monday Night Football and have an equal record against the spread. Their last win ATS and outright was in 2012 against the Giants. They’re 1-7 as a home dog in that time.

Since ‘01 games between DC and Chicago have been decided by an average of six points, suggesting close games.

So will either team want to win the game or will this be a sloppy game with a penalty-filled ending similar to last week, when it seemed like neither the Bears or Broncos wanted to win.

I’m rambling here so I’ll get to the point. I am going to take the more talented team in this match and say the Bears win but I think that Washington covers. There are no trends that say this should be the case, so this is just kind of a gut pick.

I also think, surprisingly, that the over could be in play. I know the Bears’ offense has been putrid, but Washington has allowed the third-most points and the Bears seem primed to score a few more points and possibly a defensive score. Washington has scored the 10th most points, so they can score at times. This is more of a gut pick in that everyone is going to hammer the Bears’ under until an over hits.

For the survivor pool I’m going with the Cowboys. They have the Dolphins and I think this is the easiest home game for Dallas, as of today. For that reason I’m playing them.

Pick: Washington +4, over 40.5, Cowboys (survivor)

Bears picks record: 3-0

Jeff: You’re killing me, Sam! We need to lead with the good stuff - we both nailed the under last week! That line was never really in danger of getting toppled so it was one of my few victories over the weekend. The Ravens hanging on for a victory in the survivor pool was a sigh of relief for the second straight week. I don’t think I’ll have to worry too much on Sunday as I’m again sharing the same choice and taking the Cowboys. It’s kind of like checking the free square on a bingo sheet as the Cowboys are playing good September football and the Dolphins are trading their few remaining talented players for picks in next year’s draft. Don’t overthink this one, take the Cowboys. If you want to be contrarian or already took them, let us know in the comments who you are rolling with.

As for the Bears game, I’m going to go the opposite way. Given Sam’s betting history on the Bears last year and so far this season, you definitely want to listen to him. However, until this Bears defense stops looking like a dominant squad, I’m going to believe in their ability to hold average offenses down. Plus, the Bears offense hasn’t woken up from whatever this hibernation is so I’m going to continue to hammer that under until... Philly?

I’m surprised the Bears are getting 4 points on the road given all the great info that Sam pulled out for us. After watching Washington’s games, I can understand it a little more. They’ve come out of the chutes fast but in both games have lost out to the talent on the field. I would argue that the Bears defense is in a category above the Eagles and the Cowboys and they will not let Case Keenum get away with some of the errant passes he’s made thus far. Say what you will of Mitchell Trubisky’s slow start, but this will be the least talented defense faced to date and Trubisky has done a nice job of not turning the ball over. I’ll once again take the Bears and the points. Third time’s a charm, right?

Pick: Bears -4, under 40.5, Cowboys (survivor)

Bears picks record: 1-2

Make sure to follow Sam on the Sunday morning livestream with co-host Steven Schweickert. Follow us on Twitter @samhouseholder and @gridironborn.