FanPost

Why Did Everyone on Offense Regress in 2019?

Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member, and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.

It’s a common refrain around the WCG boards that "everyone regressed so you know it’s the coach" but I got to thinking about that and I don’t think it’s quite the situation it’s being characterized as, and I don’t think it’s as simple as blaming the coach.


For starters, I don’t think everyone on offense regressed in 2019. I think most of the Bears players performed to the level that they have performed at for most of their careers, while others were injured. Some had career years in 2018 that they couldn’t repeat, but that’s not an indictment of the coach. You have to accept that if a player doesn’t perform as well as his best season ever, it’s not necessarily on the coach. However, there are 4 players that, to me, clearly regressed:

1. Charles Leno regressed in 2019. He looked lazy mentally and lazy physically. Maybe he got fat and happy after an extension and a marriage. For a veteran like Leno, I don’t pin his down performance to Nagy at all. I put it on Leno. He had a down year, it happens.

2. James Daniels regressed in 2019. A change was made at OL coach in part to address this. I mean, I don’t know that I would blame Nagy specifically for Daniels’ regression and we also don’t really know who Daniels is, just yet. We expected him to be good but maybe he isn’t. Or, maybe he is and he needed a new position coach. For now, I’ll pin this to coaching and even if Nagy isn’t the position coach, as the head coach, it’s partially on him.

3. Then you have Tarik Cohen. Not much in 2017, a whole lot in 2018, then not much in 2019. I really don’t think Nagy used him differently. If he did, he had him run up the middle more, which only should have made Cohen’s presence less of a "tell" and opened up other things for him. It’s more like Trubisky failing to hit him, Cohen failing to make the catch, Cohen running to the sideline, and defenses adjusting. I don’t think this one is on Nagy at all.

4. The big one is, Trubisky regressed vs. 2018 but we don’t really know what Trubisky is. He was nothing special in 2017, looked pretty good in 2018, then looked pretty bad in 2019. It’s quite possible he’s just bad, and those who said that he only looked good in 2018 because of Nagy, were correct. Perhaps Nagy is just a victim of his own success. And, you have the above regressions, plus some injuries which I’ll mention in a bit, which reduced Trubisky’s surrounding personnel and contributed to his regression. I nonetheless do think Nagy didn’t coach up Trubisky well enough in 2019 so it’s at least partially on him. I won’t put it all on Nagy, though. Trubisky didn’t look as good, and again, neither did the surrounding personnel for a variety of reasons.

Nobody else really regressed, but there were injuries. Burton never looked right physically. Neither did Long, and Larsen was hurt too (I think) and Coward wasn’t very good. Whitehair was his usual self. So was Massie until he got hurt. So was Gabriel, who had a career year in 2018, until he got hurt. Miller didn’t really regress so much as not show the progress that was expected, but his issues following his assignments are well documented. Shaheen has never been good or healthy and was neither good nor healthy, which left TE bereft of talent. Robinson actually looked better in 2019. The running back was a rook but was comparable to Jordan Howard, the player he replaced.

To provide some quantitative evidence of regression, here are some stats provided by 1410 Museum:

Montgomery statistically was the same as Howard. Montgomery had one more play (277 vs 276) and 6 fewer yards (1074 vs 1080) on the year. The run/pass mix was a little different but the overall production was the same… and bad. I was disappointed that Montgomery didn’t improve the RB production via his pass catching ability.

The WR passing game was actually better than last year. Robinson and Miller more than made up for Gabriel being hurt. The true WR (Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Wims, Bellamy, White, Ridley) had 2202 yards last year and 2432 yards this year (on 295 and 338 plays). So Mitch was asked to use the WR a lot more (15% more) and was a little less efficient but not a ton (7.5 vs 7.2 – Note these numbers include WR runs).

The TE were AWFUL. Burton had 571 yards and the group had 679 in 2018. This year no TE was over 100 (Holtz had 91) and the entire group only generated 416. But, Nagy used them a lot less (28% less) and got a lot less (39% less yardage).

Overall, the WR group made up for the TE lack of production. Plays to these two groups were about the same. 16 fewer plays overall and only 33 yard difference. 407 vs 391 and 2848 instead of 2881 (4% more and 1% less production).

If Montgomery was Howard and the WR made up for the TE, what changed? COHEN!!!!

Cohen in 2018 had 190 targets/rushes for 1,169 yards
Cohen in 2019 had 168 targets/rushes for 669 yards
His plays were down 12% but his yards/production was off 43%.

A lot of people only think of him as a gadget, but he led the team in yards in 2018. With 1,169 he had more than Howard (1,080) and Robinson (763). He was the biggest threat on offense last year!

In 2019 he was 3rd behind Robinson (1,149), Montgomery (1,074) and almost behind Miller. Miller created 655 yards on only 86 plays. On 82 more plays Cohen only generated 14 more yards than Miller. No wonder Miller was salty.

I think teams looked at the Bears stats at the end of the year and it finally sank in that the "Gadget" [Cohen] was 20% of the total offense. It was 18% of the targets under Loggains as well but the production wasn’t there.

The scary part is 2019 Cohen looked worse than 2017 Cohen from a production standpoint.

In 2017 158 plays and 723 yards – 4.6 yards per – 45% of the plays were a pass
In 2018 190 plays and 1169 yards – 6.2 yards per – 48% of the plays were a pass
In 2019 168 plays and 669 yards – 4.0 yards per – 62% of the plays were a pass

He became a bit more of a receiver. I think teams tended to defend him like one as well. 71 targets in 2017, 91 in 2018, 104 in 2019.

He had some memorable drops this year that could have been big plays, but his overall catch % wasn’t that different. 75% in 2017, 78% in 2018, 71% in 2019. I think overall he just wasn’t as dynamic and a lot more willing to get out of bounds.

On the plus side, running out of bounds did fix his fumbling problem. Last year he fumbled 7 times and led all non-QBs in the league and lost 3. This year he dropped 3 and lost 0.


So in summary, the big issues were some health problems to Burton, Long and Gabriel – not the coach’s fault – some regression by Leno and especially Cohen – I don’t think those were the coach’s fault – and some regression by Daniels and Trubisky that I do blame at least partially on coaching.

So, no, not everyone on offense regressed, it’s more like 4 players. And no, it’s not on the coach for all 4 players, it’s more like 2 of them and I’m not even certain about that.

As for the defense, I don’t think Nagy deserves credit for how well they played in 2018, nor does he deserve blame for some regression in 2019. They were never going to maintain that historic level of 2018 but they still played well.

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.