How Matt Nagy’s gameplan beat the Buccaneers

Ever since Matt Nagy benched Mitchell Trubisky, it seems as if he’s been a lightning rod for criticism — I’ve seen him critiqued for everything from his teams’ offensive outputs (which have never been better than 20th per DVOA) to the performance of individual players (like the aforementioned Trubisky and now Cole Kmet), but this year more than ever I’ve seen his criticism center around one point: his ability to call plays.

But how do you evaluate a coach’s play-calling? It’s difficult to do, though I’ve tried in the past, but after digging deeper and deeper into the film from last Thursday night I came to a simple conclusion: the only reason the Bears moved the ball against the Buccaneers, let alone scored 20 points, was because Matt Nagy solved Todd Bowles’ defense before the game had ever started.

But if that’s true, why did the Bears’ offense look so pitiful at the start of the 3rd quarter? What changed between the first and second half? In this video, I dive into detail about the play-calling chess match that took place between Matt Nagy and Todd Bowles, showing exactly how the Bears were able to exploit Tampa’s defense and win the game despite poor overall execution. Check out the video below and let me know what you think!

What do you think? Do you have any expectations for the Bears’ offense against Carolina?

Also, Six Picks’ video isn’t happening today — if I was going to make it, I’d have picked...

• LAR (-2.5) @ SF — Rams have been firing while the ‘9ers have slid, I think the Rams have the offensive firepower to win by 5 here.
• DAL (+1.5) vs ARI — Losing Dak Prescott is obviously a huge blow to the Cowboys, but Dalton is no slouch. Considering that the Cardinals just lost Chandler Jones for the year, I think Dallas has what it takes to win this game.
• MIA (-9.5) vs NYJ — Miami’s offense (specifically their passing attack) has been quietly effective, so I’ll take them to beat the Flacco-led Jets by 2 scores as New York continues to spiral.
• TEN (-3.5) vs HOU — Houston got their emotional victory last week after the firing of Bill O’Brien, but bad teams often struggle to string together two good games. With Tennessee at home and Houston’s defense struggling to stop the run, this feels like a layup to me.
• CHI (+1) @ CAR — This pick is almost entirely emotional, but I’m making it nevertheless. If the Bears offense progresses like I hope it will, they should put enough points on the board to overcome a middling (though feisty) Panthers’ squad. Add in that “all good things end eventually” (CAR’s 3 game win streak) and I’m feeling pretty good about Chicago’s chances.
• MIN (-4) vs ATL — I have no idea how to react to Quinn’s firing (a lot of teams that hated their coach respond well to a firing, but I’m not certain Atlanta disliked Quinn), so this pick is just me betting on the Vikings. After a 1-4 start to the season that saw them literal inches away from beating the Seahawks last weekend, I think they respond like a team with their backs against the wall tomorrow afternoon.