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Week 12 Game Preview: Bears vs. Packers

Do we really have to do this one? I mean...don’t we kind of know how it’s going to end?

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

This one has a feeling of inevitability to it, doesn’t it?

Is anyone really looking forward to this game? Like at all?

We’ve seen it play out so many times before, in so many different ways and with the way that this team is limping into this game, on a four game losing streak, is there really a way for the Bears to pull off an upset on the road? Against Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss.

Ugh.

I just hope it isn’t completely ugly and isn’t a blowout. But there isn’t a whole lot of hope, no matter the starting quarterback, no matter who is on the Bears’ defensive line, no matter who starts on the OL.

It’s not going to be good. Let’s just take our lashing and get out of there healthy.

Green Bay Packers

SB Nation site: Acme Packing Company

Record: 7-3, first in the NFC North

Last week: 34-31 OT loss to the Indianapolis Colts

Game day, time, TV: Sunday, 7:20 p.m. CT, NBC

Bears all-time record against: 95-99-6 including postseason

Historical meetings: Thanksgiving Weekend in Green Bay? ROLL THE GIF

This is the only way I can feel happiness anymore when thinking about the Bears. Feed this into my veins.

Thanksgiving, 2015, the 4-6 Bears went up to Lambeau to face the 7-3 Packers.

The Bears defense managed to rock Rodgers around, Willie Young and Lamarr Houston each bagged a sack of Rodgers, while Shea McClellin racked up 10 tackles.

The Bears turned an Eddie Lacy fumble into a Zach Miller touchdown and then Tracy Porter intercepted Rodgers late, but the Bears couldn’t quite run out the clock. Rodgers drove the Packers down the Chicago 8-yard line but the defense held and forced four straight incompletions to preserve the 17-13 win.

Last meeting: A 21-13 loss last December, also at Lambeau. The Bears entered the fourth quarter down 21-3 before a late FG and touchdown made the score look a little better.

I’m not going regurgitate the ugly stats but just know that Mitchell Trubisky threw the ball 53 times.

Injury report: The Packers’ injury report is a mile long, so here are the 16 players listed with limited or no participation on Wednesday:

Limited: WR Davante Adams (ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (knee/hand), RB Tyler Ervin (wrist/ribs), CB Ka’dar Hollman (quadricep), WR Allen Lazard (core), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), C Corey Linsley (back), G Lucas Patrick (toe), S Will Redmond (shoulder/elbow), P JK Scott (back/quadricep), WR Equanimeous St. Brown (knee), CB Chandon Sullivan (ribs), TE Robert Tonyan (ankle)

Did not participate: DL Montravius Davis (toe), LB James Burgess (hamstring), CB Josh Jackson (concussion)

Offense: The Packers offense ranks third in points and seventh in yards.

Their passing offense ranks sixth, while the rushing offense is 14th.

They’re led by torn in Chicago’s side Aaron Rodgers (68.2 pct. cmp./2,889 yds./29 TD/4 INT) he’s having just another Aaron Rodgers year.

Catching his passes are Davante Adams (68 rec./847 yds./10 TD) who is far and away their number one receiver and Rodgers’ favorite target. Just how much of a favorite? He has more than double the receptions of the next receiver on the roster.

That would be RB Aaron Jones (32/261/2) and TE Robert Tonyan (32/391/6) and then RB Jamaal Williams (27/212/1) and then WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (25/518/4) and finally Allen Lazard (15/272/2).

So if you can take away Adams then you take away a huge part of the passing offense.

Aaron Jones (113 att./534 yds./6 TD) is the leader on the ground, followed by Williams (81/336/1).

Simply put: Adams and Jones make this offense, if the defense can limit those, then the Bears might have a prayer.

Defense: The defense for Green Bay comes in ranking 17th in points allowed and 12th in yards.

Their passing and rushing defenses each rank 13th in yards allowed.

The Smith Brothers, Za’Darius (8 sks/17 QB hits/10 TFL/2 FF) and Preston (1.5 sks/4 TFL/5 QB hits) are still rushing the passer and doing their thing.

In the secondary, Adrian Amos (44 tkl/1 INT/3 PD/1 sk) and Darnell Savage (43 tkl/5 PD/1 TFL) are patrolling deep while Jaire Alexander (32 tkl/1 INT/5 PD/1 sk/2 TFL) is becoming a top cornerback.

Krys Barnes (50 tkls/3 TFL) is the Packers’ leading tackler but he is currently on the COVID list.

Key match ups: Let’s see, is there any area where the Bears would have an advantage...uh...looking...um...surely there has to be one...

The Bears’ defensive line over the Packers’ offensive line? Wait, what’s that, they’re allowed to hold our players without any repercussions? Oh...

Maybe it’s not that bad...I think the Bears DL vs. Packers OL is going to go a long way, but perhaps more important is Kyle Fuller and occasionally Jaylon Johnson against Davante Adams.

Adams is Green Bay’s best receiver and definitely one of the best in the league right now. He’s Rodgers’ favorite target and if the Bears’ secondary can limit him, they can limit the Packers offense.

Get turnovers! It’s not just coincidence that the games that Green Bay has been close or lost all came with their most turnovers of the season, including four against the Colts last week.

For the offense? Stay out of your own way, avoid dumb penalties, but also; be physical, the Packers can be run on and if a team sets the tone early, Green Bay will back down.

Key stats:

  • The Bears have lost six straight games coming off a bye, their last win was in 2013, at Lambeau Field, with Josh McCown as quarterback
  • The Bears are 3-17 against the Packers in their last 20 games
  • Davante Adams has seven redzone touchdowns this season
  • Opponents have posted a 101.5 rating against the Packers defense. The Bears have an 81.8 total QB rating this year (combined stats for Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky)
  • The Packers have 7 turnovers over in their three losses but just two in their seven wins
  • The Packers have seven offensive touchdowns in the third quarter this season, six passing, one rushing. The Bears have one total offensive touchdown.

What has to break right for the Bears to get the upset? Am I too pessimistic or is this a near-certain loss?