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Best Bets: Bears-Texans spread, total, survivor picks

The QB the Bears could’ve had comes to town just as everything in Chicago is falling apart

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL season enters its home stretch, but unfortunately it appears the Bears are going to spend another December mired in uncertainty and irrelevancy and hit reboot in January.

But maybe we can turn their misfortune into our fortune by winning the bets.

Last week Sam and Jeff once again nailed the spread (Lions +3) but missed on the total. It’s becoming a bad habit that the Bears can’t slow down opponents.

In the survivor pool we didn’t lose anyone, but Region Rat 19 was crazy enough to pick the Bears and took a strike. However, a ton of people had to sweat out Las Vegas’s last second win over the Jets and the Vikings’s OT thriller, two games that probably should have gone the other way. That means 15 of us will be making two (!!) survivor picks this weekend.

In the pick ‘ems league Little G keeps his league (106) over Assy McGee (105) and Get Mitch or Die Trying (102), with Sam trailing (99).

Jeff is lurking with 99 points and Lester is down a little ways with 91 points. Last week’s high-scorer was Get Mitch.

Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans (-1.5, O/U 44.5)

Sunday, noon CT, CBS

Sam: Not only have the Bears never beaten the Texans franchise (0-4 all-time) they’ve also never even covered against them.

Why should this year be any different? The Deshaun Watson revenge factor, the disappearance of the once-dominant defense and an overall tailspin for the formerly 5-1 Bears.

There’s too much going in Houston’s favor and too much against Chicago. Maybe the Bears ride their better rushing performance from the first half a week ago against the worst rushing defense in the league, but somehow that seems uncharacteristic of this team.

I think you’re safer laying the point and a half with Houston than taking it with Chicago. As for the total, I think you play the over, just based off what we’ve seen the last two weeks. The defense looks like it wants no part of this mess.

In the survivor pool I’m taking the Seahawks against the Jets because of the bounce-back factor. For my second team, I’m looking at the Cardinals against the Giants. I don’t feel confident in it, at all, so I may very well change it, I know the Cardinals aren’t playing great, but I would think they could overcome Colt McCoy. Plus I’ve burned the Bucs, Packers, Saints and Titans. Pickings are slim.

Picks: Texans -1.5, over 44.5, Seahawks and Cardinals (survivor)

Jeff: The Texans are the only team in the NFL that the Bears have not recorded a win against. They’re 0-4 and only get a chance to change that status once every four years barring an unlikely meeting in the Super Bowl (haha). Earlier in the season, it looked like the Texans could’ve been an easy-ish win, with Bill O’Brien doing his best to destroy that team. Now, I’m not so sure. Since their bye week, the Texans have beat the Jaguars, lost a close one to the Browns, beat New England, handily taken care of the Lions, and lost a close one to the Colts. They’re playing good teams close and taking care of the teams on the bottom half of the standings. It should come as no surprise then that the Texans carry a point and a half line into Soldier Field against the struggling Bears.

Now would be a great time for the Bears to stop the freefall if we thought they were interested in salvaging something of this season. At this point, I’m not so sure they are or what that path looks like. Add in a little extra motivation for Deshaun Watson and I think the smart money is on the Texans to extend their series lead to 5-0. As for the over/under, the Bears defense is officially not getting the benefit of the doubt from me in this one and I’ll take the over.

As for Survivor League, we’ve entered the first week where we need to pick two teams. My first one is easy, as I’ve got the Seahawks bouncing back from their surprising loss to the Giants to take care of the other team from New York. The second pick was a little harder but right now I’ve got the Bucs over the Vikings. The Bucs are coming off a bye week and while the Vikings aren’t the pushover they appeared to be early in the year, they haven’t convinced me that they could go on the road and beat a team like the Bucs.

Picks: Texans -1.5, Over 44.5, Seahawks & Bucs (Survivor)