Best Bets: Bears-Jaguars spread, total and survivor picks

It’s a holiday, so let’s get right into it.

Last week in the survivor league we lost two more, including Lester. He was, surprisingly the only one who lost on the Rams. Only two whiffed with the Steelers, including one Assy McGee, who was the other eliminated.

In the pick ‘ems, Sam was the week’s high-scorer (by virtue of tiebreakers?) but there were three others with the same eight points as Sam.

Little G still has the lead 122 over Assy with 117. With another good week it can probably be all but clinched up, although we pick all the way through the Super Bowl, so a long way to go there!

Chicago Bears (-7.5, O/U 47) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, noon CT, CBS

Jeff: The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost 13 straight games. They’re not a good ball club. They’ve been rolled the last two weeks by AFC playoff hopefuls Tennessee and Baltimore. They’re currently in line for the number one pick and Trevor Lawrence, the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Make no mistake, the Jaguars as an organization win when the team loses in 2020.

The Bears have something going the last two weeks, rolling the Texans and holding on against their division rival Vikings to keep playoff hope alive. I don’t have much doubt that the Bears can hold on to win this game. I hate that the line is 7.5, but I think they’re the better team and much like the game against the Texans, there’s no real excuse to not put them away early. I’ll take the Bears to cover the rather hefty spread.

I’m tempted to take the under this week but the problem is that the Bears defense hasn’t been the impenetrable force that we’ve come to know and love lately. With the Bears offense rolling as of late with the run-heavy approach, I think it’s fair to expect some points on both sides, allowing this game to exceed the over.

As for Survivor League, it’s getting harder and harder as we near the end of the season. Eight players remain and we lost Lester last week, falling victim to the mighty Jets beating the Rams. My one obvious pick is these Bears, a game I’ve been sitting on for a number of weeks. I burned the Browns last week, which means I’ve got a more difficult decision to make now. I’m rolling with the Texans at home against the Bengals despite their big MNF win against the Steelers. I think the Texans are a mess and the line is kind of crazy, but I only need to squeak out a win. My secondary option is the Washington Football Team against the Panthers, but I think the chance for the Panthers to pull a minor upset is bigger than the Bengals making it happen again against the Texans.

Picks: Bears -7.5, Over 47, Bears & Texans (Survivor)

Sam: Oooh boy, the Bears as a big road favorite. Not sure how I feel about this one, especially since I don’t buy into the idea that players and coaches tank. Not in a league that is so demanding of wins and short on opportunities. Every player and coach has the motivation to do their best to win every single week or they know they will be replaced.

That said though, the Jaguars are awful. I feel bad for Jacksonville fans, so I’m sort of rooting for them to get Trevor Lawrence. Not only because I have a proper Midwestern distaste for New York City and their football teams but just because Jaguars fans have endured a lot of losing.

According to my stats, the Bears have not been a full touchdown favorite since week 10 of 2018 when they were favored by seven over the Lions at home. They won that game 34-22, overcoming four missed field goals by the Cleveland Kicker.

So it’s been a while and the biggest favorite they have been this year was week two over the Giants when they were favored by 5.5 and won by four.

With that said, I am joining my partner here and walking into the proverbial hornet’s nest as my guys Chad Millman and Simon Hunter like to say and laying the 7.5. I will take the under though because I think even if the Bears put them away early and the defense rolls, it’s similar to the Texans game than any other recent contest.

I’m eliminated in the survivor pool but had I not been and since I hypothetically used the Browns and Ravens a week ago I’d be taking the Bears and Texans. Sheesh, JB and I are in lockstep so either fade us or climb on board to cash those tickets!!

Picks: Bears -7.5, under 47, Bears and Texans (survivor)