Foles is the early favorite to start week one for the Bears

Whether you or I think Nick Foles is an upgrade over Mitchell Trubisky or not is irrelevant, because the Chicago Bears truly believe he has the knowledge and the skill set to efficiently run Matt Nagy’s offense.

Foles’ previous connections with Bears coaches Nagy; (Philadelphia, 2012 and Kansas City, 2016), Juan Castillo; (Philly 2012), Bill Lazor; (Philly 2013), and John DeFilippo; (Philly, 2017 and Jacksonville, 2019), gives the Bears the confidence that he can stabilize the quarterback position.

All that experience and familiarity is also why Foles believes he’s stepping into a situation where he’ll not only play well, but thrive and catapult himself to another big contract down the road.

Why else would he agree to restructure his deal? Foles is essentially betting on himself to play and play well enough to earn another big bag.

But Trubisky will be entering year three in the offense and at some point things have to click and slow down for him, right?

Right?

Remember I was the guy that dug through the numbers to discover that just about every QB that has run an Andy Reid-like offense saw an improvement from year one to year two. Guys like Donovan McNab to Tarvaris Jackson to Carson Wentz all saw an uptick in production, so I was supremely confident that it would happen to Trubisky as well in 2019.

But it didn’t, and while I could list the mitigating factors that aided his regression (there were a few), the bottom line is he missed guys, he got stuck on his first reads, he took far too many sacks, and he didn’t make nearly enough plays to show he could be the clear cut franchise quarterback.

Good quarterbacks make plays and elevate the play of others, while average to meh QBs need everything around them to be pristine in order for them to have success.

Most in the know media types are predicting that Foles will start week one for the Bears, and Foles is also the odds on favorite according to BetOnline.ag.

Bears starting QB in Week 1 of 2020 NFL Regular Season

Nick Foles: -150 (2/3)

Mitchell Trubisky: +110 (11/10)

And here’s what ESPN’s Louis Riddick thinks about the situation.

Now the best case scenario for the Bears would be for Trubisky to make the jump we all expected him to make last year and take full control of the offense, but with Foles’ experience and knowledge of the system, it might take an injury to get Mitch on the field in the regular season.

And for all those holding out hope that Trubisky is still the guy, it is possible we could be looking at a reverse of what transpired in Tennessee. The Titans brought in a veteran to back up their guy, only to have their guy falter, which led to the new guy taking over and earning a big pay day in free agency.

If Trubisky does have it all click and he’s able to shine — and let’s face it, if he’s on the roster in 2020 he’s likely to play considering Foles’ has had some injury issues in the past — then he’ll be in line for a nice pay day in 2021 whether the Bears pick up the fifth year option or not. That deadline is May 30, but even if the Bears decline it, they’ll still have the option to franchise tag him if he plays well this season. And considering the franchise tag money isn’t that much different than the 5th-year option money, I think they decline.

For the record, I think Foles starts week one, but what do you guys think?