Best Bets: Bears-Falcons, spread, total, survivor and more

Last week the Bears moved to 2-0 on the season but our pickers couldn’t.

Not because they missed on the spread, no, it was all good there as the Giants rallied late to cover the 5.5 spread, but both Jeff and Sam thought the over would come through and it came up short.

In the Survivor Pool, Sam got back on the right side after taking a strike in week one, although he had to sweat out the Titans, along with Jeff. Note: The Jaguars are feisty this year.

Other than that, the only people who took strikes in week two just plain didn’t make picks.

Checking in on the Pick ‘Ems contest, Little G has jumped out to an early lead with 22, followed by Enygmas, Cooler’s Picks and 13th Grader with 20. WhiskeyRanger leads the writers with 18, along with Sam, while Jeff and OpinionBear are close behind with 17 and Lester has fallen just below that with 16.

Now, this week the Bears face a big test with the winless Falcons, but they have a potent offense and sieve defense. Pick that total carefully boys...

Bears at Falcons (-3, O/U 47.5)

Sunday, noon, FOX

Sam: This is a tough one. The Bears defense has been good this season but they haven’t faced a group like this before and that’s not to say that they haven’t allowed points and big plays in spots.

Scoring is up across the league and Vegas is trying to adjust to the more neutral setting in mostly-to-completely empty stadiums. Does that mean that week three totals are going to be artificially high to compensate? It’s hard to say.

As for the spread, well that’s tricky too. The Falcons are sure to be desperate with last season’s 1-7 start on their minds and blowing a big lead in Dallas Sunday. But they’re awfully banged up and it seems like the Bears are getting no love for two close wins over teams that are perceived to be bad.

So I guess that settles it, doesn’t it? I’m going Bears to cover and the under. I am not sure that the Bears will win, especially if it turns into a shootout, but then all of this is out the window. I think the defense is going to come out firing against a banged up Falcons offense and that Mitch can find just enough windows to keep it close.

As for a survivor pick, I’m going with the “pick against the Jets” theory until further notice and going with the Colts. Don’t let me down, Indy!

Sam’s picks: Bears +3, under 47.5, Colts (survivor)

Jeff: Well, it’s not as much fun when Sam and I agree, I think we all realize that, so I promise you to pick something different. I understand why the betting public likes the Falcons in this one, I really do. The Bears have been underwhelming at times and the Falcons, well, the Falcons have offense! They’ve got Matt Ryan! Insert eye roll emoji.

Look, it’s not that I don’t like Matt Ryan, I’ve been cashing fantasy football championship checks with him at the helm for years, it’s that it takes more than a good quarterback to win games in this league. With news that Julio Jones is banged up, that leaves Ryan with one dynamic target against two good corners and Eddie Jackson. I like the Bears odds. I like them even more when you’re laying three points on me.

The Falcons defense looks like it can be bullied in the run game and resembles a moldy Swiss cheese in the secondary. I’m not impressed. I think Mitchell Trubisky has a chance to put together a good game against this Falcons. 2018 Buccaneers game good? Don’t rule it out. That defense got absolutely destroyed by the Seahawks and Cowboys and yes, I get it, the Bears are not those teams, I think Matt Nagy can scheme up a lot of points in this one. Give me the over!

As for survivor, the Colts pick is too easy to avoid. The Jets are the front runners for worst team in the league and the Colts looked like they put a complete game together last week. Sometimes, you just need to take the free square on the Bingo card and look to next week.

JB: Bears +3, Over 47.5, Colts (Survivor)

Follow Sam and Jeff on the Twitter machine @samhouseholder and @gridironborn!