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Best bets: Bears-Packers, spread, total and survivor picks

Of all the teams to need to beat to get into the playoffs and its this one? Really?

Tennessee Titans v Green Bay Packers Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

2020 is gone but somehow is still giving Bears fans one last kick in the pants.

That’s right, after all that this insane roller coaster of a Chicago Bears season has given us we get a week 17 win-and-in to the playoffs scenario and the opponent is none other than the 11-3 Green Bay Packers, who have basically just steamrolled the Bears for the better part of the last one and a half decades.

Sure, there’s other fail safe methods of getting into the postseason but the easiest path should always be the most desirable.

Before we break down this game, let’s take one more look through the contests.

In the survivor pool, there are just seven remaining and somehow the one guy who had the last standing clean sheet, Todd, didn’t lock in picks last week and is now down to his last strike. Get it together Todd!!

Everyone else who took a strike took it on the Texans and the one who was eliminated last week whiffed on the Texans and Washington Football Team.

In the pick ‘ems contest, Little G holds a four point lead over Assy McGee (never gets old typing that one out) with Sam coming back slowly on them after turning in a seven-point week. 13th Grader gets a shoutout for having the week’s high score of 12.

Lester jumped over Jeff for seventh place.

Now, with that business taken care of, let’s look at this week’s match up. If you can stomach it.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (-5.5, O/U 50.5)

Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CT, FOX

Sam: Why did it have to be Green Bay? Of all of the years to face them in week 17, after years of getting the Vikings or Lions, why is it that the one year where playoff trip means beating one of the best teams in the league and the one that has been a freakin’ bully to the Bears?

This is painful. I hate picking against the Bears, even when it’s the profitable thing to do, but you know I’m laying the points with the team from up north. Ugh. I hate doing it but at least cashing one last ticket in the regular season will help me wipe away my tears with sweet cash.

According to my tally sheet, I have lost five straight totals on the Bears game picks. I’ve still been hammering the under, save for the Texans game when it somehow inexplicably went under. So what I’m saying is, I have not had a good feel for this one in a while.

And I want to say under. This feels like both teams are going to be going for an old-school NFC North game, trading blows and trying not to show too much in case of a rematch, but I’m NOT doing that, because I need to bust out of my total slump; I’m going OVER.

According to my records the last time a Bears game had a total of 50 or higher was against the Rams in 2018 (52.5) and that one went under. Take that for whatever it is worth.

As far as trends in the series, the Packers have covered three straight and in their previous five week 17 meetings they’re 2-3 against the spread despite being 0-5 straight up.

Intradivision home underdogs is a tried and true method for picking games, but tread carefully on that trend this week with lots of teams with a lot to play for and many with none.

Still, lay the points and the over. That’s how I’m betting one. Siiiiiigh. Go Rams.

Survivor, I’m out of it. Still. I think my hypotheticals leave with Washington Football Team playing big in a must-win for them and it’s encouraging to hear Alex Smith could be back under center. I think about the only other option I’d hypothetically still have would be the Raiders.

Picks: The Team from Up North -5.5, over 50.5, WFT and Raiders (survivor)

Jeff: Do we have to? I mean, honestly, do we have to bet this game? The line is less than one score. GB was up 41-10 after three quarters in the first meeting. In Week 12. What’s happened since then? The Bears offense has found some life, yes, but the defense hasn’t exactly improved. I don’t see it, friends. I don’t see it. I would never bet against the Bears with real money and I don’t recommend you do either. Ill-gotten gains. But I can’t recommend taking the Bears at +5.5 here.

The Bears offense has improved. The Packers offense is running at an elite level. 50.5 points doesn’t seem high enough for this game. Give me the over.

As for Survivor, I’m so thrilled with making it to the final week but I didn’t leave myself a lot of good options. I’m going to take the Patriots because, despite everything, I think Bill Belichick can beat Adam Gase with a MAC team (sorry, Sam). For the other pick, right now I’m on the Raiders, but I might end up changing it to the Cowboys. Neither really excites me at this point but the Cowboys have been showing some signs of life on offense.

Picks: not the Bears +5.5, Over 50.5, Patriots & Raiders/Cowboys (Survivor)