Watson to Chicago? It’s not happening

The situation in Houston with Deshaun Watson hasn’t reached a ‘point of no return’ status quite yet, but it’s close. He’s clearly pissed off with what has transpired there this offseason, but the latest report is that there has been no formal request for a trade, and that the Texans aren’t shopping him.

But that hasn’t stopped teams from contacting the Texans to gauge interest.

To date, there hasn’t been anything leaked about the Chicago Bears being one of those teams, but with the franchise in desperate need for a quarterback, I would expect them to at least pick up the phone to see how things are going.

Nick Caserio, Houston’s new general manager, has a good working relationship with Chicago GM Ryan Pace from Caserio’s time with the Patriots. The Bears have been frequent trade partners with the Pats the last few years and Caserio, who was their director of player personnel, was whom Pace dealt with.

But if the Texans do get to the point where they have to trade their franchise QB, I wouldn’t expect the Bears to be serious contenders. Houston will want either a starting QB back in the deal or the chance to draft one early in the 2021 NFL Draft. Chicago’s number one pick isn’t until 20th overall, and by that time the top flight prospects will be long gone.

There’s also Watson’s no trade clause to consider, which gives him and his representation some input on where the Texans trade him, but ultimately Houston will still need to make the best deal for them.

Watson created some buzz a while back by saying the Bears never met with him in the pre-draft process back in 2017, and while they never brought him in for a private work-out, or had dinner with him, they did meet in at the NFL combine, and at Clemson’s pro day, and they scouted him in person that season. Could Watson hold a grudge against Pace for not scheduling an in-person meet and great? Sure, it’s possible, but the pros of becoming an icon in Chicago should outweigh his hurt feelings from four years ago.

The odds say the Bears have a great shot at swinging the trade, but the odds are designed to get fans betting. So of course they’re going to have the Bears up high.

We are a QB starved fanbase after all.

Here’s how SportsBetting.com has their top 15 teams right now.

New York Jets 2/1
Miami Dolphins 3/1
Chicago Bears 4/1
Denver Broncos 5/1
Indianapolis Colts 8/1
New England Patriots 8/1
Philadelphia Eagles 10/1
Carolina Panthers 12/1
Washington Football Team 12/1
Detroit Lions 12/1
Las Vegas Raiders 12/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 15/1
San Francisco 49ers 20/1
Dallas Cowboys 20/1

If I were so inclined to place a wager on this, it certainly wouldn’t be on the Bears.

The Jets and Dolphins make a lot of sense, and while the Texans would like to get Watson out of the AFC, it’s not going to stop them from making the best trade possible. Making a trade within the division is likely off the table, so I’m not buying the Colts.

The Panthers have been mentioned as a team to watch out for, but if I had a few bucks to lay down on a long shot I’m betting on Dallas. Dak Prescott is a free agent that is going to demand money in the same ballpark as Watson, so I could see them deciding to make a play for the guy that isn’t coming off a season ending injury. Dallas picks 10th, and while that’s not high enough for one of the top three QBs, it is high enough for Houston to package with some other picks to move up.

Another team I think could sneak in with an offer is the Lions. They have a new head coach and a new general manager, the 7th overall pick, and they have a veteran they could send to Houston to serve as the bridge QB for a few years.

With the Bears in win-now mode for the 2021 season, I would expect them to pursue every single QB avenue that presents itself, but I just can’t see a way they come anywhere near a package close to what some other teams can offer.