clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Best Bets: Bears-Saints Wild Card Playoff - spread and total

Anything can happen in the playoffs, right? But can the Bears cover as double-digit road ‘dogs?

Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The Bears have made the postseason! I repeat, the Bears have made the postseason!

Now they draw the No. 2 seed New Orleans Saints, who appear to be on rolling. So it might be a tough task for the Bears to win their first playoff game since 2010 but, hey, they made it!

Before we get to this week though, let’s close the book on one of the WCG contests and check in on the other.

The survivor pool wrapped up with three winners: Jeff Berckes, Obviously Incorrect and tutesthePicker.

Four others were eliminated last week and none had the same team. The four teams that took the pickers out were the Cardinals, the Cowboys, the Eagles and Lions.

Over in the Pick ‘Ems, Sam gained a point on the leaders Little G (135) and Assy McGee (131) with a nine-point week over the leaders’ eight. Lester also gained ground up to fifth place, when Jeff remains in seventh. Decatur Staleys won the week with 10 points.

Jeff is not submitting a pick this week because, in his words, he is a “coward.”

And now the main event...

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, O/U 47.5)

Sunday, 3:40 p.m. CT, CBS

Sam: Yikes, I was for sure rooting for the Bears to make the playoffs over having the 10th or 11th overall draft pick, but this is a bit of a case of ‘be careful what you wish for.’

The Bears have drawn the No. 2 seed Saints and are double-digit underdogs at some books.

And rightfully so, because the Bears struggled against the No. 1 seed Packers just a week ago, but they did take these same Saints to overtime back in week eight.

But it would be hard to find anyone that says that either team really resembles the ones that met halfway through the season.

The Bears are 1-3 in their last four playoff games against the spread, but that also goes back all the way to the Super Bowl, so they’re 1-3 straight up in those games as well. Even going back all the way through that playoff run and they are 2-4 ATS.

The Saints haven’t covered their last three playoff games, which were all at home, by the way and all when they were favored. The last time they covered was as 5.5 underdogs to the Vikings in the Stefon Diggs walk off touchdown game (they lost by 5).

More stats! The last seven 8-8 or worse teams to make the playoffs covered in the Wild Card round and have won straight up the last four times.

So, with that said, I’m hanging it all out there and taking the Bears plus the points. I think that the Bears are going to keep it a game for a little bit, just like last week against the Packers. I think that the Saints will pull away, but the defense should play out of its mind and try to slow the Saints down a little.

I think the over is the play though, both teams will put up some points and even if the Saints do pull out a lead, I think the Bears and Mitch will get enough garbage time to keep it within 10 and get the over.

Picks: Bears +9.5, Over 47.5