Three weeks in and I have just one win picking the Bears game.
But that’s not to worry because I had my best week ever picking games in the pick ‘ems contest.
That’s right, I went 14-of-16 picking games straight up, easily the highest score in the WCG Pick ‘Ems and catapulting me into a tie for third place at 31 points. MonstersoftheMidway is still on top of the standings with 33 points.
In the survival pool no one who has made a pick has taken a strike yet, just those that haven’t made a pick.
With that stuff out of the way, let’s look at the Bears this week.
The Bears lost big time last weekend and we don’t need to talk anymore about that game. They’re now 1-2 against the spread on the young season but are hosting a team that just can’t seem to catch a break, but is 2-1 against the spread.
The Lions, despite being talked about as a candidate to be one of the worst teams in the league, has been very frisky under head coach Dan Campbell. They came roaring back in week one after getting thoroughly rolled in the first half, then they played a close first half in week two and came back in week three to give the Ravens all that they could handle.
So is this Lions squad on the verge of a breakthrough or is it more bad luck for them?
The numbers show how bad their pass defense has been, but what does it matter, against Chicago, who can’t seem to pass a hot potato, let alone as football.
This is a hard one to pin, but the spread in this one feels right, without a hook on it I think I have to take the points and the Lions. I just have a bad feeling we’re in for another close one and while I think the Bears could pull it out, I think the Lions are going to keep it too close for comfort.
The underdog covered both times last year, for whatever that is worth, in the games between these two. The Bears were 3-5 at home against the spread a year ago, including a loss as favorites to the Lions, as well as a spread loss to the Giants. The Bears were only favored in two home games last year and lost both against the number and were 1-1 straight up.
Broadening out they are 3-5 as home favorites since 2019. The home crowd is going to cheer hard for Justin Fields in his first home start, but are going to turn at the first sign of bad offensive playcalling.
This game feels like an under to me, they’re predicting weather and I think both teams are going to be mistake prone. But remember, I’m 0-fer on the total.
For my survivor pick I played the Bengals last night and I stayed up way to late to make sure that it won. Thank you Joe Burrow.
Picks: Lions +3, under 41.5, Bengals (survivor)